vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
| Newcastle United win | Draw | Everton win |
|---|---|---|
| +135Bet at DraftKings → | +270Bet at theScore Bet → | +223Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total goals 2.5: O -133 (Novig) · U +125 (Novig) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Newcastle UnitedLWLLWEvertonDLLDW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
Newcastle United lost to Everton four days ago. Now they host the same opponent, and the books still have Newcastle as the favorite. Most tickets are on the home side, while most of the money sits on the visitors. When the crowd and the cash disagree, the price is worth a close look.
Both clubs are in the bottom half of the table. Newcastle sit 12th of 20 with 11 points from 8 matches and a goal difference of -2. Everton are 14th with 10 points and a goal difference of -1. Newcastle's league form, newest first, is WLLWL. Everton's is LLDWD. Over their last 10, Newcastle score 1.5 goals and concede 1.7 per match. Everton score 0.9 and concede 1.3.
The defensive numbers stand out. Across 8 stored games, Newcastle allow 27 shots and 7 on target per game. Everton allow 20 shots and 4 on target per game. Everton also take more shots on target, 4.75 per game to Newcastle's 3.38. Both sides come in on three days of rest. Newcastle traveled 121 miles from their last game at Liverpool. Everton traveled 121 miles from home.
A moneyline is a bet on who wins, with no point cushion. In soccer it has three outcomes: home win, away win, or draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If you bet Newcastle at +135 and it ends 1-1, you lose. If you bet Everton at +223 and it ends 1-1, you also lose. The draw is its own bet at +270. A plus number is your profit on a $100 stake, so +135 pays $135 and +223 pays $223. That third outcome is why soccer prices look long. Each side has two ways to lose.
Newcastle are the favorite. The Newcastle odds are +135, best at DraftKings. The draw is +270 at theScore Bet. Those three best prices sit at three different books, which is why shopping for the best number (line shopping) matters. With the vig removed (the vig is the book's built-in cut), the market reads it Newcastle 41%, draw 27%, Everton 32%. Our rating, an Elo model built on results, gives Newcastle 59% and Everton 41% in a two-way view that ignores draws.
Treat it as context only. The spread (a handicap the favorite must cover) opened Newcastle -1.5, meaning a two-goal win, and hasn't moved. Against the spread (ATS), Newcastle are 4-4 in 8 graded games, and only 1-3 as the favorite. Everton are 5-3 ATS in 8. Everton's games have gone over the total just 2 of 8 times. Newcastle's are 4-4. The public split is 61% of tickets on Newcastle, but 64% of the money on Everton.
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you could place it many times. Compare each best price with our fair price. It's thin, but it's the only side where the best number beats fair.
Kickoff is Monday, November 2 at 3:00 PM ET at St. James' Park in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, on USA Net and Universo. The forecast is 46 F with a 12 mph wind from the northwest.
The edge is small, so size the bet small. Only take it at +223 or better. At a lower number most of the value disappears.
Newcastle allow 7 shots on target per game. Everton's matches mostly stay under 2.5 goals. Put those together and we expect a tight, low-scoring game that the visitors can steal. A draw or a home win still sinks this bet, which is why the price matters more than the result. Projected score: Everton 1, Newcastle 0. That's our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free daily play, and you'll find it right below.
Newcastle United is the slight market favorite at +135 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Everton at +223. The draw is priced at +270. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Newcastle United vs Everton airs on USA Net and Universo in the United States. Kickoff is Monday, November 2 at 3:00 PM ET from St. James' Park in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, where the forecast calls for 46 F and a 12 mph wind from the northwest.
The match kicks off Monday, November 2 at 3:00 PM ET at St. James' Park. It airs on USA Net and Universo. Both clubs come in on three days of rest, and they last met only four days earlier.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Public is on United (61% of tracked tickets on the moneyline), the money leans Everton (64%).
The spread has held at United -1.5 since it opened; the total has held at 2.5.
As of Nov 1, 12:45 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.