๐ New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. A plus number is the underdog; a minus number is the favorite. The
spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The
total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free:
Sports Betting 101 ยท
Odds converter ยท
No-vig calculator
Winless Meets Winless in Indy
The Atlanta Falcons roll into Lucas Oil Stadium at 0-1 to face an Indianapolis Colts team sitting at a strange 0-0-1. Neither club has tasted a win yet, both have quarterback questions on the injury report, and the sportsbooks have not even hung a number on this one. That makes this the perfect game to slow down, study the real information, and get ready to pounce when a line finally posts. The Falcons vs Colts matchup is quieter than a primetime showdown, and quiet games are exactly where prepared bettors find edges.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
Get the daily free-play email · by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends
Documented free VIP plays whenever they're on the board, from a team with six straight winning years. Every result graded in public, win or lose.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
The Matchup
Atlanta is 0-1 and currently sits fourth of four teams in the NFC South, the bottom of its division. Indianapolis is 0-0-1, meaning the Colts tied their opener, and they sit third of four in the AFC South. There is no season series history to lean on here, just one data point per team. What we know for sure: both offenses have been quiet, and the passing numbers from each team's leader tell you these were low-volume, cautious performances.
Players to Watch
For the Colts, Riley Leonard leads the passing charts at 4 of 7 for 41 yards. That is seven attempts, a tiny sample, but a clean 57 percent completion rate. For the Falcons, Cooper Rush has been sharper on volume, going 5 of 6 for 35 yards. Rush completing five of six throws is efficient, but 35 yards on six attempts means short, safe passes. Neither quarterback has stretched a defense yet. Whichever passer takes even one meaningful shot downfield in this Colts vs Falcons game could swing it, because both offenses have lived on dink-and-dunk football so far.
The Numbers
Here is the situation: no sportsbook has posted odds for this game yet. That happens with lower-profile matchups, especially when quarterback availability is uncertain. When the line does open, you will see three markets. The point spread is a handicap, where the favorite must win by more than a set number of points for a bet on them to cash.
The moneyline is simpler, just pick the winner straight up. The total, sometimes called the over/under, asks whether the two teams combined will score more or fewer points than the posted number. The single most important habit in betting is shopping for the best number, meaning comparing that spread or price across several sportsbooks, because a half point or a slightly better payout adds up enormously over time.
Injuries
Indianapolis lists tight end Tyler Warren as questionable, running back DJ Giddens as questionable, and receiver Alec Pierce as out, so the Colts will be thinner in the passing game. Atlanta lists quarterback Michael Penix Jr. as questionable, while Trey Sermon and Malik Verdon are on injured reserve, meaning they are shelved and unavailable. The Penix question is the biggest single variable on the board.
Falcons vs Colts FAQ
Who is favored in Falcons vs Colts?
Two winless teams meet at Lucas Oil Stadium with quarterback health shaping everything about this August matchup.
Who will win Colts vs Falcons?
Two winless teams meet at Lucas Oil Stadium with quarterback health shaping everything about this August matchup. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.