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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$185k traded · 4.9k trades
Indianapolis ColtsNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Spread$41k traded · 607 trades
Indianapolis Colts -2.5New England Patriots +2.5
Trades
Money
Total 37.5$34k traded · 505 trades
Over 37.5Under 37.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$15k traded · 117 trades
Indianapolis ColtsNew England Patriots
Trades
Money
Total 37.5$5.2k traded · 40 trades
Over 37.5Under 37.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
New England Patriots win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
New England Patriots to win, from 168 hours before the start to 49 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 60% to 39%; Kalshi 61% to 39%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave New England Patriots, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 30% to 70%
🔒 Official VIP play
Ross has an official play on this game
Ross has an official, documented play on this game, bet with his own money and posted for members with the ticket photo. The side stays with members, so the Desk's free read comes off this page and you never get a mixed signal. The breakdown and numbers below are still free.
Official board, 3 straight winning NBA plays 3-0 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public Bonus plays, last 6 college basketball plays 5-1 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public |
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WHALE WINNER
✓ CASHED · ORE Ducks +7.5 (Spread)
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🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. A plus number is the underdog; a minus number is the favorite. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Matchup
The Indianapolis Colts (0-0) travel to face the New England Patriots (0-0) on August 13. In the divisional pecking order, the Colts are slotted second of four in the AFC South while the Patriots are third of four in the AFC East. When two 0-0 teams meet, sharp analysis starts with who is available to play, and that is where this game gets interesting.
Players to Watch
The names on the injury report are the story. For Indianapolis, receiver Alec Pierce is out, which removes a piece of the passing attack outright. In the secondary, both Sauce Gardner and Cameron Mitchell are questionable, meaning their availability is genuinely uncertain. If either or both sit, the Colts defend the pass with backups. For New England, cornerback Carlton Davis III and Quintayvious Hutchins are questionable, and Jimmy Kibble is on injured reserve, which means he is out for an extended stretch. Watch the pregame inactive lists closely, because they will reshape this matchup more than anything else.
The Numbers
Odds have not been posted for this game yet, so there is no line to quote. Here is what to expect when they arrive. The point spread is a handicap, the number of points one team must win by for a bet on them to cash. The moneyline is simpler, a bet on which team wins outright, at any margin.
The total, or over/under, is a bet on the combined points both teams score. When numbers appear, they will differ slightly from sportsbook to sportsbook. That is the single most important lesson for a new bettor: the same bet can pay different amounts at different books, so always compare and take the best available price.
Injuries
Indianapolis: Alec Pierce is out, Cameron Mitchell is questionable, Sauce Gardner is questionable. New England: Carlton Davis III is questionable, Quintayvious Hutchins is questionable, Jimmy Kibble is on injured reserve. The Colts carry the heavier burden, one confirmed absence at receiver plus real uncertainty at two defensive back spots. New England's questionables could still suit up, and Kibble's absence was already priced into their roster planning.
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Injury Report
NECarlton Davis III (Questionable), Quintayvious Hutchins (Questionable), Jimmy Kibble (Injured Reserve)
INDAlec Pierce (Out), Cameron Mitchell (Questionable), Sauce Gardner (Questionable)
More NFL matchups
Colts vs Patriots FAQ
Who was favored in Colts vs Patriots?
The Colts visit Gillette Stadium on August 13 with both teams at 0-0 and both carrying injury questions into the opener.
What was the pregame read on Patriots vs Colts?
The Colts visit Gillette Stadium on August 13 with both teams at 0-0 and both carrying injury questions into the opener. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits