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Kalshi listed this game, but not enough traded before kickoff to show the buyers (we show markets with at least 10 trades and $500 traded).
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -1.375 | -1.375 | n/a |
| Total | 3.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Nashville SCDWDWWRed Bull New YorkDWLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 32 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 71 |
| New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 58 |
| Inter Miami CF | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 56 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 55 |
| Charlotte FC | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| Philadelphia Union | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 47 |
Nashville SC has allowed 0.6 goals per match over its last 10. Red Bull New York has scored 1.1 per match over that same stretch, and it shows up 925 miles from its last game. That looks like a mismatch. Mismatches are exactly where bettors stop thinking, so let's do the work before a single price goes up.
Nashville sits first of 32 with 71 points from 32 matches. Its goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed) is +43. Its last five read DWDWW (D is a draw, W a win, L a loss), so no losses in that run. Red Bull New York sits 23rd with 39 points and a -16 goal difference.
Its last five results read DWLLW, and its last five league games read LWLLW. Nashville won the last meeting 74 days ago. The per-game averages tell the same story. The Red Bulls take 14.28 shots per game, but only 5.06 are on target. Nashville allows just 4 shots on target per game while holding 54.18% of the ball.
A moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. In soccer it is a three-way moneyline, because there are three outcomes: Nashville wins, the Red Bulls win, or it ends in a draw. The draw is its own bet with its own price. If you back Nashville and it finishes 1-1, you lose. Same if you back the Red Bulls.
Odds are not posted yet, but when they are, a minus number (the favorite) shows what you risk to win $100, and a plus number shows what $100 wins. There is also draw no bet, which refunds your stake on a tie. Nashville drew twice in its last five, so the draw is live here.
Against the spread (ATS) means beating a handicap line, a head start the book gives the weaker side. Nashville is 22-10 ATS this season (32 graded games), 13-3 ATS at home and 18-9 ATS as the favorite. The Red Bulls are 15-17 ATS (32 games), 8-8 ATS on the road and 10-10 ATS as the underdog.
On totals (betting whether combined goals land over or under a set number), Nashville is 17-15 and the Red Bulls are 14-18 (32 games each). Our rating, an Elo model built on results, gives Nashville 78% and the Red Bulls 22%. That is context, not a bet. With no prices yet, there is no best number to call out. Check at least three books when the line opens.
Books bake in a cut called the vig. Strip it out and you get no-vig fair odds, the true probabilities the price implies. Expected value is what a bet earns on average. That is the math we chase. One warning: our rating's 78% would price near -355, but it ignores the draw, so Nashville's real three-way win chance is lower. We like Nashville. The defense and the home cover rate line up. The price decides how hard to press.
Kickoff is Sunday, November 1 at 4:30 PM ET on Apple TV from GEODIS Park in Nashville. The forecast is 61 F, wind 10 mph from the southeast and a 37% chance of rain. Both clubs have 3 days of rest. Nashville is in game 2 of a home stand with no travel. The Red Bulls are in game 2 of a road trip, coming 925 miles from Foxborough, Massachusetts, one time zone west.
Nashville SC to win on the three-way moneyline, at the best number available once books post. If the price gets too short for you, Nashville draw no bet is the safer cousin. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
The leader's defense smothers a Red Bulls attack that shoots often but rarely tests the keeper. We project Nashville SC 2, Red Bull New York 0. That is our read on this matchup; when the Desk posts a documented free play, you will find it right below.
First place hosts 23rd at GEODIS Park, and we lean Nashville SC to win once the prices post, as long as you shop for the best number.
Nashville SC hosts Red Bull New York on Apple TV. Kickoff is Sunday, November 1 at 4:30 PM ET at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee. The forecast calls for 61 F, a 10 mph wind from the southeast and a 37% chance of precipitation.
The match kicks off Sunday, November 1 at 4:30 PM ET. It streams on Apple TV. Both clubs come in on 3 days of rest, with the Red Bulls traveling 925 miles from Foxborough, Massachusetts for game 2 of a road trip.
Nashville SC is first of 32 with 71 points from 32 matches and a +43 goal difference. Red Bull New York is 23rd with 39 points from 32 matches and a -16 goal difference. Nashville won the last meeting 74 days ago.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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