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Texas Longhorns play at LSU Tigers in college football on Saturday, November 14, at Tiger Stadium (LA). As of 9:17 AM ET, LSU are 4-point favorites and the total is 46.5. Prices come from 14 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Over 46.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 14 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on Texas Longhorns spread (61% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans LSU Tigers (56%).
| Book | BetsTexas Longhorns +4LSU Tigers -4 | MoneyTexas Longhorns +4LSU Tigers -4 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsTexas LonghornsLSU Tigers | MoneyTexas LonghornsLSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Texas Longhorns (+154) / LSU Tigers (-185)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Texas Longhorns (+155) / LSU Tigers (-180)) | ||
| BetMGM (Texas Longhorns (+150) / LSU Tigers (-185)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 46.5Under 46.5 | MoneyOver 46.5Under 46.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Texas Longhorns | LSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4 | -4 |
| Total 46.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +155 | -180 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Texas Longhorns | LSU Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +162Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | -170Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +4 -108Bet at BetMGM → | -4 -108Bet at Courtside → |
| Total 46.5 | O +102Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | U -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 9:17 AM ET, the spread is LSU -4 and the total is 46.5, with 14 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Texas ML | LSU ML | Texas spread | LSU spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +143 | -180 | +4 -110 | -4 -109 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -109 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 | +4 -108 | -4 -110 | O 46.5 -108 | U 46.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +143 | -180 | +4 -110 | -4 -109 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -109 |
| BetRivers | +143 | -180 | +4 -113 | -4 -110 | O 46.5 -112 | U 46.5 -112 |
| Caesars | +152 | -182 | +4 -110 | -4 -109 | O 46.5 -106 | U 46.5 -114 |
| DraftKings | +154 | -185 | +4 -110 | -4 -110 | O 46.5 -105 | U 46.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 | +4 -110 | -4 -110 | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| Courtside | +157 | -181 | +4 -108 | -4 -108 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 | – | – | O 46.5 -110 | U 46.5 -110 |
| Fliff | +150 | -190 | – | – | O 46.5 -115 | U 46.5 -120 |
Prices from 14 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Texas Longhorns4th in the Southeastern ConferenceLSU Tigers8th in the Southeastern Conference
Sam Leavitt (LSU)215/303, 2,553 YDS, 17 TD, 9 INT (9 GP)
Arch Manning (TEX)168/254, 2,024 YDS, 18 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)The No. 8 team in the AP poll is getting +167 on the road against the No. 24 team. That gap between the rankings and the price is the story of Texas vs LSU. The Texas Longhorns visit the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium (LA) on Saturday, November 14, at 7:30 PM ET on ABC and ERADM. The books are siding with the home team, and the yardage tells you why.
As of publication, Texas is 7-2 and 4th of 16 in the Southeastern Conference. LSU is 6-3 and 8th of 16. It is a conference game. Both teams have six days of rest. Texas is on game two of a road trip, 592 miles from its last game in Columbia, with no time-zone change. LSU is on game two of a home stand. LSU is the favorite. Over nine games, LSU averages 504.11 total yards per game and allows 261.22 per game.
Texas averages 363.78 per game and allows 280.11 per game. PPA (predicted points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves a team toward points) agrees: LSU's offense sits at 0.22, Texas at 0.07, over nine games each. For context, our rating (an Elo model built on past results) leans Texas, 53% to 47%. The market sees it the other way. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), both teams are 4-5 over nine graded games.
Both quarterbacks have played all nine games, so the per-game numbers compare cleanly. LSU's Sam Leavitt averages 283.7 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 1 interception per game over nine games, and he is at 301.8 passing yards per game over his last five. Texas' Arch Manning averages 224.9 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game over nine games, with 232.4 per game over his last five. Leavitt moves the ball more per game. Manning finds the end zone at about the same per-game rate.
At -170, a $100 bet profits $58.82. At +167, a $100 bet profits $167. Remove the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads LSU at about 62.5% and Texas at 37.5%. The Texas vs LSU spread (a bet on the margin) is Texas +4 at -108 at BetMGM and LSU -4 at -108 at Courtside. Texas +4 wins if Texas wins or loses by 3 or fewer.
A 4-point LSU win is a push (your stake comes back). LSU -4 needs a win by 5 or more. The spread opened at LSU -4.5 and sits at -4 after 17 moves. It opened at 46 and has not moved. The public split shows 60% of DraftKings spread tickets on Texas, with 52% of the money on LSU. That is crowd behavior, not advice.
Expected value is what a bet returns on average over many repeats, not what one ticket pays. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to stop losing money. We pass. The Over is the best spot. At +106 after ProphetX's fee, a $100 ticket profits $103.88. Break-even is 49%, and the market's no-vig read is 49.5%. LSU's yardage and a forecast of 55 degrees, 5 mph wind and 0% chance of rain give the points a clear path.
We like the Over 46.5 at +106 at ProphetX. The edge is small, so the price is the whole case. Shop before you bet.
LSU's offense is the most reliable unit on the field, and Manning has thrown 2 touchdowns per game over nine games, so Texas should answer. Our projection: LSU 27, Texas 21. That adds to 48 points, over the 46.5 total. It is a read, not a promise. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
LSU is the market favorite at -170 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Texas at +162. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Texas vs LSU airs on ABC and ERADM. The Texas Longhorns visit the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium (LA) in a Southeastern Conference game, with kickoff set for Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 7:30 PM Eastern time.
The LSU Tigers are the favorite at -170 on the moneyline, with the Texas Longhorns the underdog at +167. With the vig removed, the market reads it about 62.5% LSU to 37.5% Texas. The spread is LSU -4.
The Texas vs LSU game kicks off Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 7:30 PM Eastern time at Tiger Stadium (LA). The broadcast is on ABC and ERADM, and the forecast calls for 55 degrees with a 5 mph wind.
Texas Longhorns vs LSU Tigers College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 46.5, with the over priced at +102 at ProphetX and the under at -106 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Longhorns (60% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money leans Tigers (52%).
The spread opened Tigers -4.5 and is now -4; the total moved from 46 to 46.5; several books (4) moved the spread on away to 4.5 together.
On Kalshi, 82% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Texas Longhorns (10121 trades, $314k traded). On ProphetX, 65% of the money traded on the moneyline is on LSU Tigers (77 trades, $1.4k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 12, 8:05 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.