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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$5.2M traded · 75k trades
Ohio State BuckeyesTexas Longhorns
Trades
Money
Total 50.5$342k traded · 3.2k trades
Over 50.5Under 50.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$116k traded · 811 trades
Ohio State BuckeyesTexas Longhorns
Trades
Money
Spread$68k traded · 116 trades
Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5Texas Longhorns -1.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Texas Longhorns win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Texas Longhorns to win, from 168 hours before the start to 14 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 52% to 55%; Kalshi 52% to 55%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Texas Longhorns, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 50% to 60%
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Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Ohio State Buckeyes | Texas Longhorns |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +107Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price | -111Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: FanDuel -118 exchange price |
| Spread | +1.5 -103Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: FanDuel -108 exchange price | -1.5 -101Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: Fanatics -110 exchange price |
| Total 49.5 | O -110Pregame price at Fanatics → | U -105Pregame price at FanDuel → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Ohio State Buckeyes
100%
Texas Longhorns
100%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Ohio State Buckeyes11th in the Big Ten Conference
Texas Longhorns14th in the Southeastern ConferencePlayers to watch
Arch Manning (TEX)20/27, 305 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
Julian Sayin (OSU)21/25, 320 YDS, 3 TDHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +107 means a $100 bet profits $107 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Eleven Cents Separate These Two Teams
Texas is a favorite by a point and a half, and the moneyline sits 11 cents past even money. That is how little daylight the betting market sees here. Meanwhile the two quarterbacks in this game have combined for 41 completions on 52 throws, 625 yards and seven touchdowns so far. Kickoff is Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, and the number has barely moved off a hair.
The Matchup
Ohio State vs Texas is the marquee Week 2 assignment on the board. As of publication the Ohio State Buckeyes are 1-0 and the Texas Longhorns are 1-0. In the conference tables we have in front of us, Ohio State sits 11th of 18 in the Big Ten and Texas sits 14th of 16 in the Southeastern Conference, which tells you those tables are still nearly meaningless this early and that the market is pricing talent and situation, not standings.
Flip it around and read it as Texas vs Ohio State and the story is the same: home field and a slightly higher opinion of the Longhorns, worth all of one and a half points.
Players to Watch
Arch Manning leads Texas with 20 completions on 27 attempts for 305 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Efficient, aggressive, one mistake. Julian Sayin leads Ohio State at 21 of 25 for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions listed. That is an 84 percent completion rate. Two quarterbacks playing clean, high-percentage football is exactly the kind of profile that pushes a total up rather than down, and the number posted here is 49.5.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, which is simply a bet on who wins the game outright, no margin involved. Texas is the favorite at -111 (best price at ProphetX): a $100 bet profits $90.09 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, and it needs to win 52.6 percent of the time just to break even. Ohio State is the underdog at +107 (also best at ProphetX): a $100 bet profits $107.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 48.3 percent, the lowest break-even number on this board.
Next, the point spread, a bet on margin. Ohio State +1.5 at -103 (ProphetX) wins if Ohio State wins outright or loses by exactly 1; it loses on a 2-point defeat, and there is no push at a half point. Texas -1.5 at -101 (ProphetX) wins only if Texas wins by 2 or more; a 1-point win loses. The total is the combined score of both teams: Over 49.5 is -110 at Fanatics, Under 49.5 is -105 at FanDuel. Those are the best prices we track, and shopping them is the entire edge.
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More College Football matchups
Ohio State vs Texas FAQ
Who was favored in Ohio State vs Texas?
Texas is the market favorite at -111 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Ohio State at +107. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Texas vs Ohio State?
Two unbeaten teams, a one-and-a-half point spread and a total of 49.5 in Austin under the lights. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Ohio State vs Texas?
The total is 49.5, with the over priced at -110 at Fanatics and the under at -105 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Football picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Football games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits