Red Wings vs Blues Prediction & Odds (Nov 10)

Blues vs Red Wings Prediction: The Number Hiding in Plain Sight

81% of the money on the total is riding the Over, and that lopsided action shows up in the price. The Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues own nearly identical records, so the real question for bettors is not who wins. It is how many goals get scored. this game is at Enterprise Center, and one small crack on the board deserves your attention.

Where to Watch Red Wings vs Blues, and How They Stack Up

Puck drop is Tuesday, November 10 at 8:00 PM ET on TNT. As of publication, the Red Wings are 7-8-3 (wins, regulation losses, overtime losses) and sit 10 back of their division lead. The Blues are 7-8-2, 7th of 8 in the Central Division and 12 back of the lead. St. Louis won the only meeting so far, 10 days ago, so the Blues lead the season series 1-0.

A recent headline billed the Blues as bringing a three-game losing streak into this one. Both teams have two days of rest. The Red Wings are on game 2 of a road trip after traveling 795 miles from Denver. The Blues made a 253-mile trip from Nashville. Over their last five games, Detroit scored 3.2 goals per game and allowed 3. St. Louis scored 3 and allowed 3.2.

Players to Watch

Alex DeBrincat leads the Red Wings with 16 over 18 games played (0.9 per game). He keeps firing, at 3.6 shots on goal per game over his last five games, but the finish has gone cold at 0.2 points per game in that stretch. Philip Broberg leads the Blues with 13 over 17 games played (0.8 per game) and is running hot at 1.4 points per game over his last five games. In goal, the listed starters are John Gibson for Detroit and Joel Hofer for St. Louis. Hofer has started 4 of the Blues' last 5 games. Goalies drive totals, so watch for any late change.

Who Is Favored to Win Red Wings vs Blues?

The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. The minus sign marks the favorite. A $100 bet profits $75.19, so St. Louis has to win 57.1% of the time just to break even. Strip out the vig (the sportsbook's built-in fee) and the market reads it about 56.8% to 43.2% for St. Louis. Our rating, an Elo model used only for context, has it 58% to 42%, very close to the market.

The puck line is hockey's spread, set at 1.5 goals. Red Wings +1.5 at -192 (DraftKings) wins if Detroit wins or loses by one. $100 profits $52.08, break-even 65.8%. Blues -1.5 at +185 (Circa) needs a win by two or more. $100 profits $185, break-even 35.1%.

The total is a bet on combined goals, set at 5.5.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is your average result per bet if this exact game were replayed thousands of times. Only the Under clears its bar. That is an average, not what you pocket when it hits. The counterpoint is real: both teams' last five games averaged more than six combined goals. The season totals records show no strong tilt either way, with Detroit 9-9 over-under in 18 games and St. Louis 9-8 in 17.

Injuries

Both teams list three players on Injured Reserve. Detroit is without center Dylan Larkin and defensemen Albert Johansson and Simon Edvinsson. St. Louis is without center Dillon Dube and defensemen Torey Krug and Tyler Tucker. Each team is down one center and two defensemen.

The Pick

This is a price play, not a hunch about a goaltending duel, and the edge is thin. Shop hard. This is the Desk's educational read, not an official play.

The Prediction

We see a tight game decided by one goal, with the Blues edging it 3-2 at home. That adds to five goals, under the 5.5 total. The listed starters, Gibson and Hofer, have to hold up, and DeBrincat's volume of shots is the biggest threat to this read. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for today sits right below if you want to see how we handle the rest of the board.