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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Avalanche vs Senators?
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the moneyline: Avalanche (71% of DraftKings tickets, 95% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsAvalancheSenators | MoneyAvalancheSenators |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Avalanche (-102) / Senators (-118)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Avalanche (-106) / Senators (-106)) | ||
| BetMGM (Avalanche (-105) / Senators (-115)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsAvalanche +1.5Senators -1.5 | MoneyAvalanche +1.5Senators -1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 6.5Under 6.5 | MoneyOver 6.5Under 6.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Colorado Avalanche | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -106 | -106 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before puck drop: Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators
Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig and ProphetX listed this game, but not enough traded before kickoff to show the buyers (we show markets with at least 10 trades and $500 traded).
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
How the number moved: Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | +1.5 | -1.5 | n/a |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | -102 / -115 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before puck drop, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Colorado Avalanche | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -104Pregame price at Bally Bet → |
| Spread | +1.5 -233Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -1.5 +230Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Total 6.5 | O +113Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U -115Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Colorado Avalanche
58%
Ottawa Senators
58%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Colorado Avalanche3rd in the Central Division
Ottawa Senators4th in the Atlantic DivisionHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +104 means a $100 bet profits $104 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Avalanche vs Senators Prediction: A Coin Flip With a Crack in It
Two teams with identical 11-6-2 records, and a market that cannot separate them: the Colorado Avalanche are +104 and the Ottawa Senators are -104. When a price sits this close to even, the number you get is the whole game. The public split (the share of sportsbook tickets) has 79% of moneyline tickets on Colorado. Exchange traders, meanwhile, moved toward the Senators. Any Senators vs Avalanche prediction starts with that tension, Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre.
Who Is Favored to Win Avalanche vs Senators?
Both clubs are 11-6-2 as of publication. In hockey that means 11 wins, 6 regulation losses and 2 losses in overtime or a shootout. Colorado is 3rd of 8 in the Central Division, 6 back of the lead. Ottawa is 4th of 8 in the Atlantic, 3 back. This is the first meeting of the season series. The last one, 288 days ago, went to Ottawa. Both teams had 1 day of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back.
Colorado plays game 2 of a road trip after a 217-mile trip from Toronto, where Landeskog scored twice in a 6-3 win. Ottawa plays game 3 of a home stand, and its last game went to overtime. Who is favored? Barely Ottawa, at -104. That is a pick'em, meaning the market sees a coin flip. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Ottawa 53%. That is context, not a bet.
Players to Watch
Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 30 points over 19 games, 1.6 per game. Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa with 23 points over 19 games, 1.2 per game. Both have cooled lately: MacKinnon is at 1.2 points per game over his last 5, Stutzle at 0.8, though Stutzle is firing 3.4 shots per game in that stretch. The listed starting goalies are Mackenzie Blackwood for Colorado and Samuel Ersson for Ottawa. Per game, Colorado averages 30.26 shots and allows 27.42. Ottawa averages 25.58 and allows 26.63.
Avalanche Odds and Senators Odds, Line by Line
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. Ottawa -104 (best at Bally Bet) means $100 risked profits $96.15. The puck line is hockey's point spread. Ottawa -1.5 at +230 (ProphetX) needs a win by two or more. $100 profits $222.14 after the book's fee. Line shopping means checking every book for the best price, and these are the best we found. The public split (the share of tickets) has 79% on Colorado and 65% on the Over. On Kalshi, 67% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Senators. On Polymarket, it is 75%.
Where the Value Is
Every price carries a built-in fee called the vig. Remove it and the market reads about 49.5% Colorado, 50.5% Ottawa. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to stop losing money. Colorado +104 needs 49%. Take a shorter price and it shrinks or vanishes. We pass on the total.
Who Is Out for the Avalanche and Senators?
Ottawa lists four: Nick Cousins (Out), plus Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund, all on Injured Reserve. Cousins took a hit from the Capitals' Chychrun that was deemed clean after review. Colorado lists two, Josh Manson and Zachary L'Heureux, both on Injured Reserve.
The Pick
Small and real, but only at the best price. This is Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
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The Prediction
Colorado outshoots opponents on average while Ottawa gets outshot, and Ottawa is down four bodies. We project Avalanche 4, Senators 3. That adds to 7 goals, over the 6.5 total, though we are not betting it. Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+ and Altitude Sports. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Injury Report
OTTNick Cousins (Out), Andre Burakovsky (Injured Reserve), Warren Foegele (Injured Reserve), William Eklund (Injured Reserve)
COLJosh Manson (Injured Reserve), Zachary L'Heureux (Injured Reserve)
More NHL matchups
Avalanche vs Senators FAQ
Who was favored in Avalanche vs Senators?
Senators is the market favorite at -104 (best price at Bally Bet) on the moneyline, with Avalanche at +104. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Avalanche vs Senators?
The Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators game airs on ESPN+ and Altitude Sports. It is played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa on Thursday, November 12, 2026, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
What time is the Avalanche vs Senators game?
Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026, at Canadian Tire Centre. The game streams on ESPN+ and airs on Altitude Sports.
What was the pregame read on Senators vs Avalanche?
Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators NHL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Avalanche vs Senators?
The total is 6.5, with the over priced at +113 at Novig and the under at -115 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NHL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NHL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NHL picks today · NHL betting splits · DraftKings betting splits