Capitals vs Senators Prediction & Odds (Nov 10)

Capitals vs Senators Prediction: A Coin Flip With an Argument

The betting market has this game at 51% to 49%, about as close to a coin flip as hockey gets. Our rating gives the home team 57%, but on one exchange 95% of the moneyline money traded is on the visitors. The Washington Capitals visit the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday, November 10 at 7:00 PM ET, and someone is reading this game wrong. Our job is to find out whether the price is wrong too. The game streams on ESPN+ and airs on MNMT.

The Matchup: Senators vs Capitals at Canadian Tire Centre

As of publication, the Capitals are 9-6-0. That puts them 4th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division, 12 back of the lead. The Senators are 11-6-1, 4th of 8 in the Atlantic Division, 4 back. (The third number counts overtime or shootout losses.) Both teams have 2 days of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back.

Washington traveled 455 miles with no time-zone change. Ottawa is playing game 2 of a home stand. The last meeting came 237 days ago, and Ottawa lost it. Over their last 5 games, both teams score 3.8 goals per game. Ottawa allows 3.4 per game and Washington allows 3.8. Ottawa also wins 53.14% of faceoffs per game, against Washington's 48.55%.

Players to Watch

Tim Stutzle leads the Senators with a season total of 23 over all 18 games, or 1.3 per game. He is shooting more lately, with 3.4 shots on goal per game over his last 5, up from 2.7 over his last 10. He has 1.4 points per game over those 5. Jordan Kyrou leads the Capitals with 14 over all 15 games, or 0.9 per game. He has 1.2 points per game over both his last 5 and his last 10. On a per-game basis, Stutzle runs at the higher pace. The listed goalies are Logan Thompson for Washington and Samuel Ersson for Ottawa.

Who Is Favored to Win Capitals vs Senators?

Washington, barely. The moneyline is a bet on who wins, nothing else. Those are the best Capitals odds and Senators odds across the books we track. Comparing books for the best price, called line shopping, is the simplest edge a bettor has. The puck line is hockey's point spread. Capitals -1.5 pays +235 at Circa and wins only if Washington wins by 2 or more. Senators +1.5 costs -235 at ProphetX and wins if Ottawa wins or loses by 1. The puck line has flipped since it opened. Ottawa opened at -1.5 and now sits at +1.5 after one move. That is a line move and nothing more.

Where the Value Is

Every price includes vig, which is the book's built-in fee. Strip it out and the market reads Washington 51.1% and Ottawa 48.9%. Ottawa at +106 needs to win 48.5% of the time to break even. Expected value is your average result over many bets like this one. Here is the honest size of it. For context only, our rating has Ottawa at 57%. Washington is also 1-3 against the spread on the road this season (4 graded games). The public split has 55% of moneyline tickets on Ottawa, while exchange money leans Washington. Neither split tells you who wins.

Injuries

Ottawa lists four names. Goalie Linus Ullmark is Out. Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund are all on Injured Reserve. Washington lists three names on an October 28 report: Rasmus Sandin, Vincent Desharnais and Patrick Thomas, all on Injured Reserve. With Ullmark out, Ersson's play in goal matters even more.

The Pick

The edge is thin on the market's own numbers, so the price is the whole bet. Shop for +106. A shorter price eats the margin that makes this side worth backing.

The Prediction

Our Senators vs Capitals prediction is a tight home win decided late: Senators 4, Capitals 3. That adds up to 7 goals, which is over the 6.5 total, though our ticket rides only on Ottawa winning. Washington has gone over in 10 of 15 games this season, and Ottawa has gone over in 7 of 18. We expect a one-goal game where the home team's price is the better one. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.