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Blue Jackets vs Flyers Prediction: The Crowd Picked a Side
Every tracked moneyline ticket on this game is on Columbus. That is 100 percent of tickets and 100 percent of the money. Yet the Columbus Blue Jackets are 0-6 against the spread as a favorite this season, and the Philadelphia Flyers are 11-5 against the spread as an underdog. "Against the spread" here means the puck line, a bet on the margin instead of just the winner. The crowd is loud. The record says something else. Our job Saturday night at Nationwide Arena is to find the price that actually pays.
The Matchup
As of November 13, Philadelphia is 5-10-6 and sits 7th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division, 16 back of the lead with 61 games left. Columbus is 7-10-0, 18 back with 65 to play. It is a division game, and Columbus leads the season series 1-0 after winning the last meeting 18 days ago. The Flyers play game 5 of a road trip after traveling 1,701 miles from Edmonton and crossing one time zone east.
Their last game went to overtime, but they get 2 days of rest. The Blue Jackets have 1 day of rest in game 3 of a home stand. Per game, Philadelphia takes 24.05 shots and allows 28.33. Columbus takes 26.65 and allows 27.88. Over the last five games, Columbus scored 2.6 and allowed 2.8 per game. Philadelphia scored 3 and allowed 3.8. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Columbus at 60% and Philadelphia at 40%. That is context, not a bet.
Players to Watch
Kent Johnson leads Columbus with 17 points over 17 games, one point per game. Over his last five, he is at 1 point and 2.6 shots per game. Matvei Michkov leads Philadelphia with 15 points over 21 games, 0.7 per game. Over his last five, he is at 0.6 points and 1.2 shots per game. Coach Rick Tocchet said this week that Michkov did not ask for a trade. The listed goalies are Dan Vladar for the Flyers and Jet Greaves for the Blue Jackets.
Who Is Favored to Win Flyers vs Blue Jackets?
Columbus is the favorite at -134 on the moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) at FanDuel. A $100 bet profits $74.63, so it needs to win 57.3% of the time to break even. Philadelphia is the underdog at +138 at Fanatics Markets. A $100 bet profits $127.19 after the book's fee, and it breaks even at 44%.
Strip out the vig (the book's built-in cut) and the market reads about 56.7% Columbus, 43.3% Philadelphia. Blue Jackets -1.5 at +176 (FanDuel) profits $176 and breaks even at 36.2%. The total (combined goals) is 5.5. Over -108 at Polymarket profits $86.37 after the fee and breaks even at 53.7%. Under +112 at Courtside profits $112 and breaks even at 47.2%.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is your average result per bet if you could replay it many times. Flyers +1.5 is minus $0.48, Columbus -1.5 is minus $7.12, and the Under is minus $3.44. Only Over 5.5 at -108 is positive. Be honest about the size. Both teams have leaned under (Flyers 8-13 over-under in 21 games, Columbus 7-10 in 17). But the consensus total opened at 5.5 and has moved to 6.5. If your book shows 6.5, that is a harder bet. The 5.5 at Polymarket is the number our math covers.
Who Is Out for the Flyers and Blue Jackets?
For Philadelphia, our feeds list four names: Noel Acciari (Day-To-Day), Erik Gustafsson (Day-To-Day), Nikita Grebenkin (Injured Reserve) and Jakub Dvorak (Injured Reserve). For Columbus, Sean Monahan is Day-To-Day, which means his status is uncertain.
The Pick
We like Over 5.5 at -108 on Polymarket. It is a thin, number-driven edge, so size it small and only take it at 5.5.
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The Prediction
Philadelphia's last five games have featured 6.8 combined goals per game, and Columbus is giving up more shots than it takes. We project Blue Jackets 4, Flyers 3. That is seven goals, over 5.5. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Flyers vs Jackets FAQ
Who is favored in Flyers vs Jackets?
Jackets is the market favorite at -130 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Flyers at +125. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Who is favored to win Flyers vs Blue Jackets?
The Columbus Blue Jackets are the favorite at -134 (best at FanDuel). The Philadelphia Flyers are the underdog at +138 (best at Fanatics Markets). With the vig removed, the market reads about 56.7% Columbus and 43.3% Philadelphia.
Who will win Jackets vs Flyers?
Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets NHL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Flyers vs Jackets?
The total is 5.5, with the over priced at -110 at ProphetX and the under at +104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NHL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NHL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Quick answers
Who is the public betting on in Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Public is on Jackets (100% of tracked tickets on the moneyline), the money is also on Jackets (100%).
Where has the Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets line moved?
The spread has held at Jackets -1.5 since it opened; the total moved from 5.5 to 6.5.
Who is in goal for Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Listed in goal: Philadelphia Flyers Dan Vladar, Columbus Blue Jackets Jet Greaves.
Who is injured for Philadelphia Flyers vs Columbus Blue Jackets?
Philadelphia Flyers: Erik Gustafsson (day-to-day), Jakub Dvorak (injured reserve); Columbus Blue Jackets: Sean Monahan (day-to-day).
As of Nov 13, 12:20 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.