Lightning vs Blue Jackets Prediction & Odds (Nov 12)

Blue Jackets vs Lightning Prediction: A Coin Flip With a Catch

The Tampa Bay Lightning have scored 4.6 goals per game over their last five, and Nikita Kucherov is coming off a hat trick. Yet the betting market prices this one at almost exactly even money. The reason is the schedule. Tampa Bay plays its second game in two nights, its fourth in six days, at Nationwide Arena against a rested Columbus Blue Jackets team. Puck drops Thursday at 7:00 PM ET. So who has the edge in Lightning vs Blue Jackets? The answer is in the price, not the headlines.

The Matchup

As of publication the Lightning are 12-4-2 (wins, regulation losses, overtime losses). That puts them 2nd of 8 in the Atlantic Division, 1 point back of the lead. The Blue Jackets are 7-9-0 and 18 back of their division lead. Their last meeting was 247 days ago, and the Blue Jackets won it. The Lightning traveled 294 miles from Buffalo with zero days of rest on game 4 of a road trip.

The Blue Jackets had a day off and are on game 2 of a home stand. Per game, the Lightning average 29.44 shots and allow 24.94 (18 games). The Blue Jackets average 26.5 shots and allow 27.88 (16 games). Against the spread (whether a team beats the betting margin), the Lightning are 4-6 on the road over 10 graded games. The Blue Jackets are 0-5 as a favorite over five.

Players to Watch

Kucherov has 26 points over 18 games, 1.4 per game. Over his last five he is at 1.6 points and 4.2 shots per game. Kent Johnson leads Columbus with 16 points over 16 games, 1 per game, and he has held that 1 point per game pace over his last five. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the listed starter for the Lightning. Cam Talbot is listed for the Blue Jackets, though J. Greaves started 3 of their last 5.

Who Is Favored to Win Lightning vs Blue Jackets?

The moneyline is a bet on who wins, overtime included. That makes the Blue Jackets the slightest of favorites. The puck line is hockey's spread. Lightning -1.5 at +228 wins only if Tampa Bay wins by 2 or more. Blue Jackets +1.5 at -239 wins if Columbus wins or loses by one. The total is 6.5 goals, with Over and Under both -102. Every best price sits at Novig, and shopping across books (line shopping) is how you keep more of each payout.

Where the Value Is

Sportsbooks build in a fee called the vig. Remove it, and the market reads this at about 50.9% Lightning, 49.1% Blue Jackets. At +100 the Lightning only need to win 50% of the time to break even. That is an average over many bets, not what one ticket wins. The Lightning -1.5 puck line needs 30.5% and the market's own cover read is 30.3%, so it grades negative. Our rating has it 50% each, which is context only. The public split shows 85% of moneyline tickets on Tampa Bay, which is not a recommendation.

Who Is Out for the Lightning?

Three names matter. Brayden Point (C) is on Injured Reserve and Erik Cernak (D) is Out for the Lightning. For the Blue Jackets, Dmitri Voronkov (LW) was listed Day-To-Day on the November 8 report.

The Pick

This is Desk analysis, not an official play.

The Prediction

The fatigue is real, but Kucherov is pushing play and the Lightning outshoot opponents per game while the Blue Jackets get outshot. We see the Lightning grinding out a 3-2 win. That is five goals, under the 6.5 total. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.