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Ottawa Senators play at Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL on Saturday, November 14, at PPG Paints Arena. As of 5:25 AM ET, Senators are the moneyline favorite at -120 and the total is 6.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Under 6.5.
Prices updated · from 15 sportsbooks · NHL betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Senators on the moneyline (79% of tickets).
| Book | BetsSenatorsPenguins | MoneySenatorsPenguins |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Senators (-130) / Penguins (+110)) | ||
| BetMGM (Senators (-135) / Penguins (+110)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsSenators -1.5Penguins +1.5 | MoneySenators -1.5Penguins +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 6.5Under 6.5 | MoneyOver 6.5Under 6.5 |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Ottawa Senators | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120Bet at Novig → exchange price | +117Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -1.5 +208Bet at Novig → exchange price | +1.5 -210Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total 6.5 | O +102Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 5:25 AM ET, Senators -120 on the moneyline and the total is 6.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Senators ML | Penguins ML | Senators spread | Penguins spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +190 | +1.5 -245 | O 6.5 -107 | U 6.5 -117 |
| bet365 | -129 | +109 | -1.5 +185 | +1.5 -230 | O 6.5 -107 | U 6.5 -113 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 | -1.5 +170 | +1.5 -210 | O 6.5 -105 | U 6.5 -115 |
| betPARX | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +190 | +1.5 -245 | O 6.5 -107 | U 6.5 -117 |
| BetRivers | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +190 | +1.5 -245 | O 6.5 -107 | U 6.5 -117 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +191 | +1.5 -230 | O 6.5 -110 | U 6.5 -112 |
| Courtside | -127 | +112 | -1.5 +195 | +1.5 -238 | O 6.5 -106 | U 6.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +195 | +1.5 -238 | O 6.5 -108 | U 6.5 -112 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -1.5 +185 | +1.5 -235 | O 6.5 -105 | U 6.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | -128 | +106 | -1.5 +186 | +1.5 -235 | O 6.5 -104 | U 6.5 -118 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Ottawa Senators4th in the Atlantic DivisionPittsburgh Penguins6th in the Metropolitan DivisionPittsburgh opened as the team laying 1.5 goals in this one. One market move later, the Pittsburgh Penguins are getting 1.5 goals on home ice, and the Ottawa Senators are the favorite. Puck drops Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET at PPG Paints Arena on ESPN+. Here is the twist. Our rating, a simple model built on stored results, has Pittsburgh at 52% to win. That is context, not a bet. Still, when the model and the market disagree, the price tells you which side you are paying to agree with.
As of November 13, Ottawa is 12-6-2 (wins, regulation losses, overtime losses). That is 4th of 8 in the Atlantic Division, 2 points back of the lead. Pittsburgh is 7-10-2, 6th of 8 in the Metropolitan and 16 back. This is the first meeting of the season. The last one, 233 days ago, went to Pittsburgh. Both teams played overtime last time out.
Ottawa has 1 day of rest and traveled 406 miles with no time-zone change. Pittsburgh has 2 days of rest but flew 2,243 miles from San Jose, crossing three time zones east. Against the spread (the record versus the betting margin), Pittsburgh is 0-5 as a favorite and 9-5 as an underdog. Ottawa is 4-8 as a favorite.
Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa with 24 points over 20 games, 1.2 per game. Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 19 points over 19 games, 1 per game. Both have cooled to 0.6 points per game over their last five. In goal, the listed starters are Samuel Ersson for Ottawa and Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh. Silovs started 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5, a stretch where the Penguins allowed 4 goals per game. Ottawa allowed 2.6 per game over its last five.
Ottawa is. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. Ottawa sits at -108 at Polymarket: a $100 bet profits $86.37 after that book's fee, and you need to win 53.7% of the time to break even. Pittsburgh is +100 at DraftKings: $100 profits $100, break-even 50%. Strip out the vig (the house's built-in cut) and the market reads 52.2% Ottawa, 47.8% Pittsburgh.
Close to a coin flip, with Ottawa the favorite. Those are the Senators odds and Penguins odds that matter. The puck line is hockey's spread. Ottawa -1.5 at +195 (DraftKings) wins only if Ottawa wins by 2 or more, break-even 33.9%. The total is 6.5 goals. Over 6.5 is -108 at DraftKings ($92.59 profit, break-even 51.9%). Under 6.5 is +104 at Polymarket ($97.02 after fee, break-even 50.8%).
Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make it thousands of times. No side clears its bar. Exchange buyers have piled in, with 83% of Kalshi moneyline money and 82% of Polymarket's on the Senators, on light trading that can swing. We are not chasing that crowd. The Under is the smallest give. Ottawa's games have gone 8-12 on totals over 20 games, and its power play averages 0.45 goals per game on 3.95 chances per game. Pittsburgh's 11-7-1 totals mark cuts the other way, so this is a thin lean.
Ottawa lists four names: Nick Cousins (C) is Out, and Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele and William Eklund, three left wings, are on Injured Reserve. Pittsburgh also lists four on Injured Reserve: Bryan Rust (RW), Elmer Soderblom (LW), Ryan Graves (D) and Trevor van Riemsdyk (D). These are ESPN reports from November 12.
Under 6.5 at +104 on Polymarket. If another book posts the Under at a better price than +104, take that one. The best number is the whole game.
Our Penguins vs Senators prediction: a tight, grinding game where Ottawa's defense from its last five holds up and its power play stays quiet. We project Senators 3, Penguins 2. That adds to 5 goals, under the 6.5 total. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below if you want to compare notes.
Senators is the market favorite at -120 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Penguins at +117. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins game streams on ESPN+. Puck drop is Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, the first meeting between the two teams this season.
Ottawa is the favorite at -108 at Polymarket, while Pittsburgh is the underdog at +100 at DraftKings. With the vig removed, the market reads about 52.2% Ottawa and 47.8% Pittsburgh, so the Senators hold a slim edge in the betting market.
The game starts Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET at PPG Paints Arena. It is available on ESPN+. Listed starting goalies are Samuel Ersson for Ottawa and Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh.
Ottawa is the slim favorite, but the cheapest-to-hold number on the board is Under 6.5 at +104 on Polymarket. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 6.5, with the over priced at +102 at Novig and the under at -106 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NHL picks today · NHL betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NHL odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread opened Penguins -1.5 and is now +1.5; the total has held at 6.5.
Listed in goal: Ottawa Senators Samuel Ersson, Pittsburgh Penguins Arturs Silovs.
Ottawa Senators: Andre Burakovsky (injured reserve), Nick Cousins (out), Warren Foegele (injured reserve), William Eklund (injured reserve); Pittsburgh Penguins: Bryan Rust (injured reserve), Elmer Soderblom (injured reserve), Ryan Graves (injured reserve), Trevor van Riemsdyk (injured reserve).
On Kalshi, 83% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Senators (57 trades, $765 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. On Polymarket, 82% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Senators (21 trades, $1.3k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 11:23 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
