Ducks vs Blues Prediction & Odds (Nov 17)

Ducks vs Blues Prediction: Star Power Meets a Leaky Net

Leo Carlsson is producing 1.4 points per game over 19 games. That pace can swing a night on its own. The catch is that his Anaheim Ducks have allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last five. That tension defines Tuesday's trip to face the St. Louis Blues at Enterprise Center, with puck drop at 8:00 PM ET. Anaheim brings a dangerous top line and a defense springing leaks. St. Louis has disappointed bettors more often than not. Here is how we read the Blues vs Ducks matchup before a single price hits the board.

Who Is Favored to Win Ducks vs Blues?

No odds are posted yet, so there is no market favorite to report. As of November 13, the Ducks are 10-8-1. In hockey that means wins, regulation losses, then overtime losses. That record puts them 3rd of 8 in the Pacific Division, 10 points back of the lead. The Blues are 9-8-2, 7th of 8 in the Central, 12 back. The season series starts with this game. The last meeting was 228 days ago, and St.

Louis won it. Our rating, an Elo model built from stored results, gives the Blues 57% and the Ducks 43%. That is context, not a bet. Schedule matters too. Anaheim has one day of rest and is playing its third game in four days. It also traveled 1,573 miles and crossed two time zones east. St. Louis has two days of rest and is playing game 2 of a home stand.

Players to Watch

Carlsson has 26 points over 19 games, which works out to 1.4 per game. Over his last five games he has 1 point and 2.2 shots on goal per game. For St. Louis, Jimmy Snuggerud leads with 14 points over 19 games, or 0.7 per game. Over his last five he has 0.6 points and 2.4 shots per game. In goal, Joel Hofer started 4 of the Blues' last 5 games. Lukas Dostal started 3 of Anaheim's last 5, and Laurent Brossoit logged the most ice time in the Ducks' previous game. Neither starter is confirmed.

Ducks Odds and Blues Odds: Reading the Board

When prices post, start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. A minus number marks the favorite, where you risk more to win $100. A plus number marks the underdog, where a $100 bet wins more than $100. The puck line is hockey's spread, a goal handicap. The total is the over/under on combined goals. Some trends to know: against the spread (beating that handicap), the Ducks are 11-8 over 19 graded games.

That includes 7-3 on the road and 9-4 as an underdog. The Blues are 7-12 over 19, with a 3-7 mark as a favorite. Per-game averages tell a similar story. St. Louis takes 27.16 shots per game but allows 29. Anaheim scores 1.32 power-play goals per game, while the Blues manage just 0.58. Prices will differ by book, so shop every one for the best number.

Where the Value Is

Expected value means your average result per bet if you placed the same wager many times. Sportsbooks build in a cut called the vig. Once odds post, we will strip it out to see the market's no-vig price. The matchup case for the Ducks is real. Anaheim's penalty habit gives opponents 4.05 power-play chances per game. Still, a Blues unit scoring 0.58 power-play goals per game is poorly built to punish it. The risks are the travel and that 4.4 goals-against stretch. Value only exists if the Ducks pay plus money. At a short price, pass.

Who Is Out for the Ducks and Blues?

ESPN lists three Ducks on injured reserve: Ryan Poehling (C), Ian Moore (D) and A.J. Greer (LW). The Blues also list three on injured reserve: Torey Krug (D), Dillon Dube (C) and Tyler Tucker (D). St. Louis is missing two defensemen to Anaheim's one.

The Pick

Our lean is the Ducks moneyline, only at plus money and only at the book posting the best price. This is the Desk's educational read, not an official Wise Guy Team play.

The Prediction

The Blues have home ice and fresher legs. The Ducks have the best player on the ice and a habit of beating expectations away from home. We expect a loose, high-event night with Carlsson tilting it late. Our ducks vs blues prediction: Ducks 4, Blues 3. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.