Oilers vs Panthers Prediction & Odds (Nov 17)

Oilers vs Panthers Prediction: Can Florida Slow Connor McDavid?

Connor McDavid is averaging 2.5 points per game over 20 games. The Edmonton Oilers are 8-0 against the spread on the road this season. That means they beat the betting handicap all eight times, though eight games is a small slice. Now they visit a Florida Panthers team with Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand on injured reserve. Puck drops Tuesday, November 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Amerant Bank Arena, on ESPN+ and Scripps Sports. Odds are not posted yet, so we read the matchup first and the price second.

The Matchup

As of November 13, the Oilers are 14-3-3. That is 14 wins, 3 regulation losses and 3 losses in overtime or a shootout. They sit 1st of 8 in the Pacific Division and lead it. The Panthers are 11-7-2, 5th of 8 in the Atlantic and 4 points back of the lead. Both teams have 62 games left. This is the first meeting of the season. The last one came 243 days ago, and Florida won. Both teams play on one day of rest, in their third game in four days.

Edmonton is on game 3 of a road trip, 997 miles from Philadelphia, with no time-zone change. Florida plays its fourth game in six days after traveling 1,102 miles from Dallas and crossing one time zone east. Over the last five games, Edmonton scored 3.4 goals and allowed 2.4 per game. Florida scored 3.4 and allowed 3.2. Florida's style is physical, with 32.3 hits per game this season. It also hands opponents 4.1 power plays per game, while Edmonton converts 1.15 power-play goals on 3.45 chances per game.

Players to Watch

McDavid has 49 points over 20 games, or 2.5 per game. Over his last five games he has 2 points and 2.6 shots per game (3 shots over 10). Matthew Tkachuk leads Florida with 28 points over 20 games, or 1.4 per game. He has matched that 1.4 pace over his last five games, with 2.2 shots per game. In goal, nothing is confirmed. Tristan Jarry logged the most ice time in Edmonton's last game, and M. Tomkins started 1 of the last 5. Akira Schmid played the most in Florida's last game, and J. Markstrom started 2 of the last 5.

Who Is Favored to Win Oilers vs Panthers?

No book has posted Oilers odds or Panthers odds yet. When they do, three lines matter. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. The puck line is hockey's handicap, the 'spread.' The total is a bet on combined goals. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Florida 56% and Edmonton 44%. That is context, not a pick. Against the spread, Edmonton is 13-7 over 20 games and 4-1 as an underdog over five. Florida is 8-12 over 20 games and 3-4 at home over seven. Both teams are 10-10 on totals over 20 games. When prices appear, check several books. The best number can differ.

Where the Value Is

Every price carries a hidden fee called the vig. Strip it out and you get the no-vig price, the market-implied chance with the fee removed. Expected value is the average profit or loss per $100 risked if you made the same bet over and over. You only get positive expected value when your read beats that no-vig number. We rate Edmonton above the 44% our rating gives it. McDavid's pace, the road form and Florida's missing centers all point that way. Without posted prices we cannot put a dollar figure on it yet.

Who Is Out for the Panthers and Oilers?

Florida lists three players on injured reserve (ESPN, November 12): Aleksander Barkov (C), Brad Marchand (LW) and Jonah Gadjovich (LW). Edmonton lists five players on injured reserve (ESPN, November 11): Alec Regula (D), Frederik Andersen (G), Isaac Howard (LW), Matt Savoie (C) and Mattias Janmark (C), all listed as out on injured reserve.

The Pick

We lean to the Oilers moneyline. There is no price yet, so take it only after comparing every book and grabbing the best number. This is a matchup lean, not a confirmed edge.

The Prediction

Our Panthers prediction is a tight night where Florida's hitting keeps it close, but its penalty habit gives McDavid room on the power play. Panthers vs Oilers ends Oilers 4, Panthers 3. That is our read on the matchup, and if you want a documented play to go with it, the Desk's free daily play sits right below.