Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks Prediction & Odds (Nov 17)

Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs Prediction: Two Rough Starts, One Real Gap

The Chicago Blackhawks get outshot by about seven shots a night. The Toronto Maple Leafs have allowed 4.4 goals a game over their last five. One of those flaws gets exposed Tuesday, November 17 at 7:30 PM ET at the United Center, on TNT. Odds were not posted when we wrote this on Nov. 13, so this is a matchup read plus a guide to what to look for when the numbers go up.

The Matchup

As of Nov. 13, the Maple Leafs were 8-11-2 and the Blackhawks 5-13-1. Chicago sat 8th of 8 in the Central Division, 21 back of the lead with 63 games left. Toronto was 10 back of its division lead with 61 to play. This is the first Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks meeting of the season. The last one, 336 days ago, went against Chicago. The schedule is even: both teams get two days of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back.

Toronto travels 437 miles and crosses one time zone west. Chicago plays game three of a homestand. The deeper numbers (all per-game averages) tell the story. Toronto takes 28.05 shots and allows 29.33, close to even. Chicago takes 22.95 and allows 30.11. Chicago also ranks third to last of 32 in expected goals share at 42 percent over 12 games, meaning it gets only 42 percent of the quality scoring chances in its games.

Players to Watch

Auston Matthews has 29 points over 21 games, 1.4 per game, with 3.6 shots per game over his last five. Connor Bedard has 15 points over 13 games, 1.2 per game, and 1.2 points per game over his last five. Per game, the two stars are close. In goal, Anthony Stolarz started 2 of Toronto's last 5, and Spencer Knight logged the most ice time in Chicago's last game, but no starter is confirmed for either side.

Maple Leafs Odds: Who Is Favored to Win Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks?

No prices yet, so here is how to read them. The moneyline is a bet on who wins. A minus number marks the favorite and shows what you risk to win $100. A plus number marks the underdog and shows what $100 wins. The puck line is hockey's spread, a goal handicap. The total is combined goals. Every price carries vig, the book's built-in cut.

For context only, our rating (an Elo model) has the Blackhawks at 52 percent and the Maple Leafs at 48. Against the spread, meaning results against the betting handicap, Toronto is 9-12 over 21 graded games but 6-2 on the road and 7-4 as an underdog. Chicago is 7-12 over 19, including 7-11 as an underdog. When lines post, compare every book, because the same bet pays differently at different shops.

Where the Value Is

Without prices, there is no no-vig number or expected value to quote yet. No-vig means stripping the book's cut out of both sides to get the market-implied probability. Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you made the bet many times. A side only has value when it wins more often than its price requires. Our read: Toronto's near-even shot share is a real edge over a Chicago team that gets buried on chances. We would only play it at plus money or close to even.

Who Is Out for the Maple Leafs?

Toronto's report lists ten names. Nine are on injured reserve: Cade Webber, Colton Sissons, Elvis Merzlikins, Kirill Marchenko, Marshall Rifai, Max Domi, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and William Villeneuve. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day, which means uncertain, so check before Tuesday's puck drop. Five of the ten are defensemen. Chicago lists Bowen Byram on injured reserve.

The Pick

Maple Leafs moneyline, only at plus money or near even, at whichever book posts the best price. No price exists yet, so wait for it and shop it.

The Prediction

Toronto's injuries keep this tight, but Chicago's 22.95 shots a game is hard to win with. We see Maple Leafs 3, Blackhawks 2, with Matthews driving the chances. That is our read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play daily, and it sits right below.