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RebetFree-to-play social sportsbook with sweepstakes prizesClaim →Over their last five games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have scored 1.8 goals per game and allowed 4.4. That is the number that should stop you cold. The Los Angeles Kings visit Scotiabank Arena with an ugly record, yet their last five look steadier: 2.6 goals for and 2.6 against per game. One team is bleeding. The other is treading water. Puck drop is Thursday, November 19, at 7:00 PM ET.
No sportsbook has posted odds yet, so there is no market favorite to quote. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, makes the Leafs 58% and the Kings 42%. That is background, not a bet. As of November 13, the Kings were 5-10-2, seventh of eight in the Pacific Division and 19 back of the division lead with 65 games left.
The Leafs were 8-11-2, 10 back of their division lead with 61 left. This is the first meeting of the season. The last one, 229 days earlier, went against the Leafs. Both teams get one day of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back. The Kings play game two of a road trip after traveling 431 miles from Boston with no time-zone change. The Leafs come 437 miles from Chicago and crossed one time zone east.
Auston Matthews leads the Leafs with 29 points over 21 games, 1.4 per game. Over his last five games he is averaging 3.6 shots on goal and 1 point per game. Artemi Panarin leads the Kings with 19 points over 17 games, 1.1 per game, and has averaged 1.2 points and 3.4 shots per game over his last five. Matthews has the better season per game.
Panarin is the warmer hand right now. A November 13 headline also noted Fiala had an assist in his season debut after a leg injury. In goal, Darcy Kuemper logged the most ice time in the Kings' previous game, while A. Forsberg started three of their last five. Anthony Stolarz started two of the Leafs' last five and logged the most ice time in their previous game. No starter is confirmed.
With no prices yet, we lean on betting records. A moneyline bet means simply picking who wins. Against the spread, or ATS, tracks whether a team beat the handicap the books set. The Kings are 9-8 over 17 games and 8-3 as the underdog (the team expected to lose). On totals, meaning bets on whether combined goals go over or under a posted number, the Leafs are 12-9 over 21 games and the Kings 8-9 over 17. Per game, the Leafs allow 29.33 shots and block only 11.57. The Kings allow 27.65 shots per game. When lines post, check several books. The best number is the whole game.
No odds means no no-vig price yet. The vig is the bookmaker's built-in cut. Strip it out and you get the market-implied probability with that cut removed. Value exists when a price pays more than the chance it reflects. Expected value is your average result per $100 risked over many bets. We think the value sits with the Kings. The Leafs' last-five scoring and defending, their 3-10 home ATS mark over 13 games and a thin blue line all point the same way. If the Kings post as an underdog, we want them. If they open as favorites, we pass.
The Leafs' November 13 report lists ten names. Nine are on injured reserve, meaning out for an extended stretch: Cade Webber, Colton Sissons, Elvis Merzlikins, Kirill Marchenko, Marshall Rifai, Max Domi, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and William Villeneuve. Treat Wood as not playing. Morgan Rielly is day-to-day, so his status is uncertain. The Kings list Erik Gustafsson as day-to-day and Jakub Dvorak on injured reserve. Recheck final designations before Thursday's puck drop.
Kings moneyline, as the underdog only, at whichever book posts the best plus price. A plus price means a winning $100 bet profits more than $100. Compare at least three books before you click.
Our maple leafs vs kings prediction: the Leafs' offense keeps stalling, Panarin finds a seam and the Kings steal one on the road. Projected score: Kings 3, Maple Leafs 2. That is our kings vs maple leafs prediction, built on form and the ATS split, not a guarantee. That is the read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
The Leafs have allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last five, and we like the Kings as an underdog once prices post at Scotiabank Arena.
The Kings vs Maple Leafs game is listed on ESPN+ and ABTV, according to the ESPN scoreboard. Puck drop at Scotiabank Arena is 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 19, 2026.
Sportsbooks had not posted odds as of November 13, so there is no market favorite yet. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives the Maple Leafs 58% and the Kings 42%. That figure is context only, not a bet.
Puck drop for Kings vs Maple Leafs is 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 19, 2026, at Scotiabank Arena. The game is available on ESPN+ and ABTV.
The Leafs have allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last five, and we like the Kings as an underdog once prices post at Scotiabank Arena. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NHL picks today · NHL betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Not confirmed yet. Most recent starts: Los Angeles Kings A. Forsberg, Toronto Maple Leafs A. Stolarz.
Los Angeles Kings: Erik Gustafsson (day-to-day), Jakub Dvorak (injured reserve); Toronto Maple Leafs: Cade Webber (injured reserve), Colton Sissons (injured reserve), Elvis Merzlikins (injured reserve), Kirill Marchenko (injured reserve).
As of Nov 13, 4:56 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Artemi Panarin