Stars vs Golden Knights Prediction & Odds (Nov 19)

Golden Knights vs Stars Prediction: Round Two, Same Building

Dallas has allowed 3.6 goals per game over its last five, and Miro Heiskanen is listed Out. Vegas has allowed 2.4 per game over the same stretch. The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights open their season series on Nov. 17 in Las Vegas, then meet again at T-Mobile Arena two nights later, Thursday at 10:00 PM ET on Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu. Books have not posted odds yet, so this golden knights vs stars prediction reads the hockey first and the price second.

The Matchup

As of Nov. 13, Dallas is 10-6-2 and Vegas is 13-5-2. That format means wins, regulation losses, then overtime or shootout losses. Dallas sits 4th of 8 in the Central Division, 10 back of the lead with 64 games left. Vegas is 3 back of its division lead with 62 games left. The Nov. 17 opener had not been played when we published, so there is no series result yet. Both teams get one day of rest and neither is on a back-to-back.

Dallas is on game 2 of a road trip and its fourth game in six days, but travels zero miles, since it is already in Las Vegas. The 10:00 PM ET start is late on its home body clock. Vegas is on game 5 of a home stand. Per game this season, Vegas averages 28.6 shots and allows 25.4. Dallas averages 26.22 and allows 23.39, and wins 57.22% of faceoffs per game on average. Vegas scores 0.85 power-play goals per game on 3.05 chances; Dallas scores 0.61 on 2.33 and gives opponents 3.39 chances per game.

Players to Watch

Jack Eichel has 26 points over 20 games, 1.3 per game. Over his last five he is at 1.2 points and 2.4 shots on goal per game (0.8 points over his last 10). Mikko Rantanen has 21 points over 18 games, 1.2 per game, with 1.0 points and 1.8 shots per game over his last five (1.3 points over 10).

Per game, the two stars are close. In goal, Carter Hart logged the most ice time in Vegas's previous game, while A. Hill started 3 of the last 5. For Dallas, Jake Oettinger logged the most ice time in its previous game, and C. DeSmith started 2 of the last 5. Neither starter is confirmed.

The Numbers: Who Is Favored in Stars vs Golden Knights?

No odds yet, so no favorite. When they post, the moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. A minus number marks the favorite and shows what you risk to win $100. A plus number marks the underdog and shows what $100 wins. The puck line is hockey's spread, and the total is combined goals, over or under.

For context, Dallas is 7-11 against the spread (graded on the puck line) over 18 games, 5-11 as the favorite, and 6-12 on over-unders over 18. Vegas is 9-11 against the spread over 20 games and 11-8-1 on over-unders over 20. Our rating, an Elo model, gives Vegas 57% and Dallas 43%, as context only. Prices will differ by book, so shop every one.

Injuries: Who Is Out for Stars vs Golden Knights?

Dallas lists five names on its Nov. 13 report: Miro Heiskanen (D) Out, Lian Bichsel (D) Out, Kyle Capobianco (D) Injured Reserve, Matt Duchene (C) Injured Reserve and Oskar Back (C) Injured Reserve. That is three defensemen. Vegas lists Noah Hanifin (D) Out as of Nov. 11. Statuses can change before Thursday's puck drop.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if you placed it many times. With no price, nobody can calculate it honestly, and we will not fake one. Once odds post, strip out the vig (the book's built-in cut) to get the no-vig number, the market's implied probability with that cut removed. Our case for Vegas rests on the matchup: a Dallas blue line missing three defensemen, 3.6 goals allowed per game over its last five, and a Vegas power play that draws more chances. If Vegas posts at a steep price, the value thins out, so the number matters.

The Pick

Golden Knights moneyline, at the best price across books once odds post. This is a matchup lean from the Desk, not an official play, and we would rather pass than chase a bad number.

The Prediction

Dallas will win draws, but Vegas should own more of the puck against a thinned-out defense, and Eichel has the form to tilt it. Golden Knights 4, Stars 2. That is our read before a number exists; the Desk posts a documented free daily play, and it sits right below.