Ducks vs Avalanche Prediction & Odds (Nov 19)

Avalanche vs Ducks Prediction: Two Stars, Two Question Marks

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left a game against the Senators with second-period injuries. Both now sit day-to-day, meaning their status gets decided game by game. Add a Colorado Avalanche team playing the second night of a back-to-back (games on consecutive days), and Thursday at Ball Arena gets more interesting than the standings suggest. The Anaheim Ducks have tired legs of their own, though, and they are climbing to about 1,636 meters to play.

The Matchup: Ducks vs Avalanche at Ball Arena

As of publication on November 13, the Ducks were 10-8-1 (wins, losses, overtime losses), 3rd of 8 in the Pacific and 10 back of the division lead. The Avalanche were 11-6-3, 3rd of 8 in the Central and 7 back. This is a conference game and the first meeting of the season. The last one was 261 days ago, and Colorado won it. The schedule cuts both ways.

Anaheim gets one day of rest, but this is its fourth game in six days and game 2 of a road trip. The Ducks traveled 795 miles from St. Louis, crossed one time zone west and are coming up to altitude. Colorado has zero days of rest and flew 371 miles from Salt Lake City. Puck drops Thursday, November 19 at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN+, KCOP, Prime Video (Local), Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20) and KUSA-TV (9NEWS).

Players to Watch: MacKinnon and Carlsson

MacKinnon has 30 points over 20 games, or 1.5 per game. Leo Carlsson has 26 points over 19 games, or 1.4 per game. Those per-game figures are close. Over their last five games, each man is at 1 point and 2.2 shots on goal per game. The team gap is in volume. Colorado averages 30.2 shots per game, while Anaheim averages 25.11. Anaheim's edge is the power play (a man advantage after a penalty). The Ducks score 1.32 power-play goals per game, and Colorado scores 0.8.

Who Is Favored to Win Ducks vs Avalanche?

The market has not answered yet, because no Ducks odds or Avalanche odds are posted. When they arrive, expect three bets. The moneyline means picking who wins outright. The puck line is hockey's spread, usually a 1.5-goal handicap. The total is the combined goals, and you bet over or under it. For context only, our rating (an Elo model built on past results) gives Colorado 63% and Anaheim 37%.

Against the spread (ATS, meaning results against the betting line), Anaheim is 9-4 as an underdog over 13 games and 7-3 on the road over 10. Colorado is 13-7 ATS over 20 games and 7-3 at home over 10. The Avalanche have gone over the total in 14 of 20 games, and the Ducks are 10-8-1 over-under across 19.

Where the Value Is

Every price carries vig, the sportsbook's built-in cut. Strip it out and you get the no-vig number, the market-implied probability with the vig removed. Expected value is what a $100 bet returns on average if you made it many times. We only bet when the price pays more than our read says it should. Without posted odds we cannot do that math yet. The spot is clear, though. If the market prices Colorado as rested and healthy, the Ducks are the side to watch.

Who Is Out for the Avalanche and Ducks?

Colorado lists four names. Makar is day-to-day and so is MacKinnon. Josh Manson is on injured reserve (out for an extended stretch) and is not playing, and Zachary L'Heureux is on injured reserve. Anaheim lists three, all on injured reserve: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore and A.J. Greer. In goal, Scott Wedgewood started 3 of Colorado's last 5 games and Lukas Dostal started 3 of Anaheim's last 5. Neither is confirmed for Thursday.

The Pick

Our Ducks vs Avalanche prediction is the Ducks moneyline as a matchup lean. There is no price or book to quote yet, so compare every sportsbook once odds post and take the best payout. The case gets stronger if MacKinnon or Makar is ruled out.

The Prediction

Both teams allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last five, so expect chances at both ends. Colorado plays on no rest, and its two stars are question marks. Anaheim's power play can make the Avalanche pay for penalties. We see the Ducks winning 4-3. That is the read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play daily, and it sits right below.