Islanders vs Jets Prediction & Odds (Nov 19)

Jets vs Islanders Prediction: Faceoffs Against the Penalty Box

The New York Islanders win the puck. They take 55.51 percent of faceoffs per game, while the Winnipeg Jets sit at 46.08 percent. The catch is that the Islanders average 13.5 penalty minutes per game and the Jets just 8. Win the draw, then sit in the box, and that edge goes to waste. That tug of war is the story of Islanders vs Jets on Thursday night at Canada Life Centre.

The Matchup

As of Nov 13, the Islanders were 8-6-4 and the Jets were 9-8-3. That means wins, regulation losses, then overtime or shootout losses. Winnipeg was 6th of 8 in the Central Division, 11 back of the lead with 62 games left. New York was 12 back of its division lead with 64 left. This is the first meeting of the season. The last one came 310 days ago, and the Jets won it. The schedule is even. Both teams get one day of rest, neither is on a back-to-back, and neither changes time zones. The Islanders travel 1,296 miles. The Jets play game 2 of a home stand.

Players to Watch

Kyle Connor leads Winnipeg with 24 points over 20 games, or 1.2 per game. He is running hot, with 1.8 points and 5 shots on goal per game over his last five games, up from 1.2 points and 4.1 shots over his last ten. Bo Horvat leads New York with 18 points over 18 games, exactly 1 per game. Over his last five games he has 0.8 points and 3.4 shots per game. Per game, Connor holds the edge. In goal, Sorokin started 3 of the Islanders' last 5 games and Daws started 1 of Winnipeg's last 5. Neither is a confirmed starter.

Who Is Favored to Win Islanders vs Jets?

Officially, nobody yet. Sportsbooks have not posted odds. So there is no moneyline (a straight bet on who wins), no puck line (hockey's version of a point spread) and no total (a bet on combined goals going over or under a number) to quote. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, makes the Jets 57 percent to win and the Islanders 43 percent.

That is context, not a bet. Against the spread records (results versus the puck line) show the Jets at 12-8 over 20 graded games, including 7-3 at home. The Islanders are 10-8 over 18, with a 6-3 mark on the road and 9-5 as the underdog. Over-under results split evenly: Islanders 9-9 over 18 games, Jets 10-10 over 20.

Where the Value Is

Every price carries the vig, the sportsbook's built-in cut. When odds post, strip the vig from both sides and you get the market-implied probability with the vig removed. Then compare it with the break-even rate of the best price you can find. Expected value is the average result per $100 risked over many bets. If a ticket wins more often than its break-even rate, it makes money over time. If not, it slowly costs you.

We think the Jets side is where the matchup points. The discipline gap should hand Winnipeg extra power plays (time with one more skater after a penalty). Its unit averages 0.75 power play goals per game on 3.1 chances, against 0.5 on 3.06 for New York. Over the last five games, the Jets score 3.8 goals and allow 3.6 per game, while the Islanders score 3 and allow 4. We want the Jets moneyline only at a price the vig-free math supports.

Who Is Out for the Islanders and Jets?

The Islanders list four names. Mathew Barzal (C), Calum Ritchie (C) and Alexander Romanov (D) are on injured reserve, and Ritchie will not play. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (C) is day-to-day. The Jets list five. Dylan DeMelo (D), Elias Salomonsson (D), Nick Bjugstad (C) and Vladislav Namestnikov (C) are on injured reserve, and Isak Rosen (RW) is out. Recheck statuses before Thursday's 7:00 PM ET puck drop.

The Pick

Jets moneyline. There is no price or book to name yet because odds are not posted. When they are, check every book you have access to and take the best number. A cheaper price on the same side is pure profit over time.

The Prediction

The Islanders will win their share of draws. We just think they hand too much of it back from the penalty box. Connor's form and Winnipeg's power play edge should decide it at home. Our projection: Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Islanders 2. That is our read on this game. The Desk posts a documented free daily play, and it sits right below if you want to see how we handle a priced number.