Avalanche vs Mammoth Prediction & Odds (Nov 18)

Avalanche vs Mammoth Prediction: Two Stars Hurt, One Big Question

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both left Colorado's game against Ottawa with second-period injuries. That one headline changes this whole matchup. Across the ice, the Utah Mammoth rank third of 32 teams in expected goals share at 57.7 percent over 16 games. That means they generate the bigger slice of quality scoring chances. Yet a Nov 13 headline had them carrying a losing streak. Process versus results, at the Delta Center.

What Time Is the Avalanche vs Mammoth Game?

Puck drops Wednesday, November 18 at 10:00 PM ET on TNT, Utah 16, Mammoth+ and Altitude Sports. As of Nov 13, the Colorado Avalanche were 11-6-3 (wins, losses, overtime losses), third of eight in the Central Division and seven points off the lead with 62 games left. Utah was 10-8-2, fifth of eight. Their regular-season series opens here. The last meeting, 53 days earlier, went to Utah. Colorado arrives on 3 days of rest, playing game 4 of a road trip after flying 1,940 miles from Montreal and crossing two time zones west. Utah has 1 day of rest and plays game 4 of a home stand.

Players to Watch

MacKinnon leads Colorado with 30 points over 20 games, 1.5 per game. Over his last five he has 1 point and 2.2 shots per game, a cooler stretch. Clayton Keller leads Utah with 25 points over 20 games, 1.3 per game, and is running hot at 1.4 points and 3.6 shots per game over his last five. In goal, Karel Vejmelka started 2 of Utah's last 5 and Scott Wedgewood 3 of Colorado's last 5. Neither is confirmed.

Who Is Favored to Win Avalanche vs Mammoth?

No odds are posted yet, so nobody is officially favored. When the market opens, you will see a moneyline (a bet on who wins), a puck line (a spread, giving or taking goals) and a total (combined goals, over or under). Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, has Utah at 51 percent and Colorado at 49. That is context, not a pick.

Colorado is 13-7 against the spread (on the puck line) over 20 games and 14-6 to the over. Utah is 6-14 against the spread over 20 games and 12-8 to the over. Per game, Utah wins 53.31 percent of faceoffs to Colorado's 48.92, throws 26.65 hits to 15.85, and scores 1.15 power-play goals to 0.8 on the same 3.35 chances.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if you made it over and over. Without posted prices we cannot calculate it, and we will not guess. What we can say: the Mammoth vs Avalanche number should land close to even. We think Utah's chance quality plus Colorado's star uncertainty tilts it toward the home side. If books price Utah as a heavy favorite, that value disappears. Compare every book. The best price is the only edge you control.

Who Is Out for the Mammoth and Avalanche?

Colorado (as of Nov 13): Makar (D) and MacKinnon (C) are day-to-day, meaning uncertain. Josh Manson (D) and Zachary L'Heureux (LW) are on injured reserve and not playing. Utah lists six names: Dylan Guenther (RW), John Marino (D), Maveric Lamoureux (D) and Nate Schmidt (D) on injured reserve and not playing, plus Logan Cooley (C) and Nick Schmaltz (C) day-to-day. That is three Utah defensemen out. Check final reports before Wednesday puck drop.

The Pick

We lean Utah Mammoth on the moneyline, best price available across books once the mammoth odds post. Pass if Utah is priced as a big favorite.

The Prediction

Our avalanche prediction hinges on two day-to-day stars, and both clubs have leaked goals lately (Utah allowing 4 per game over its last five, Colorado 4.4). We see Utah's chance creation and faceoff edge winning a loose one at home. Projected score: Mammoth 4, Avalanche 3. That is the read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.