Blues vs Mammoth Prediction & Odds (Nov 12)

Blues vs Mammoth Prediction: The Market and Our Rating Disagree

The books make the St. Louis Blues a -117 road favorite. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives the Utah Mammoth a 59% chance to win. One of those reads is off, and the gap is why this Blues vs Mammoth game on Thursday at Delta Center (9:00 PM ET) is worth a closer look. One team is rested. The other is on the second night of a back-to-back.

Who Is Favored to Win Blues vs Mammoth?

As of publication, the Blues are 8-8-2 (wins, losses, overtime losses). They sit 7th of 8 in the Central Division, 12 back of the division lead with 64 games left. The Mammoth are 10-8-1 and 5th in the Central. Thursday's headlines say Utah brings a three-game losing streak into this one. The last meeting was 210 days ago, and Utah lost it. Schedule matters. Utah played in Las Vegas the night before, so it has zero days of rest after traveling 362 miles and crossing one time zone east.

St. Louis had a day off but flew 1,159 miles, crossed one time zone west and comes up to an arena about 1,311 meters above sea level. Utah's underlying play is strong. It ranks third of 32 in expected goals share at 57.7% over 16 games. Expected goals grades shot quality, and anything above 50% means a team creates better chances than it allows. Per game, Utah averages 29.11 shots and allows 25.16. St. Louis averages 27.44 and allows 29.

Players to Watch

Clayton Keller drives Utah with 25 points over 19 games, or 1.3 per game. Over his last five he is at 1.8 points and 4 shots on goal per game. Jimmy Snuggerud leads St. Louis with 14 points over 18 games, or 0.8 per game, and has 1 point and 2.6 shots per game over his last five. In net, the listed starters are Joel Hofer for St. Louis, who started 4 of the Blues' last 5, and Karel Vejmelka for Utah, who started 2 of the Mammoth's last 5.

Blues Odds and Mammoth Odds, Line by Line

The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. The Blues at -117 are best at ProphetX, where $100 risked profits $82.53 after the fee, and you need to win 54.8% of the time to break even. Remove the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads 53.8% Blues, 46.2% Mammoth. That makes the St. Louis Blues the favorite, close to a coin flip but still favored.

The puck line is hockey's spread. Both lines moved Thursday. The spread on St. Louis went from +1.5 to -1.5 at three books within five minutes, and the total dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 the same way. The public split has 74% of moneyline tickets on Utah. Shop every book, because a better number is the only edge you control.

Where the Value Is

Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns or loses on average if you placed it many times. We pass on all three. It needs 69% to break even. The edge is thin. The matchup backs it with Utah's 57.7% expected goals share and its per-game shot advantage.

Who Is Out for the Mammoth and Blues?

Utah lists six players. Dylan Guenther, John Marino, Maveric Lamoureux and Nate Schmidt are on injured reserve, Logan Cooley is out, and Nick Schmaltz is day-to-day, which means his status is uncertain. Schmidt and Cooley will not play. St. Louis lists three on injured reserve: Torey Krug, Dillon Dube and Tyler Tucker.

The Pick

A $100 risk profits $44.84. The bet wins if Utah wins outright or loses by one goal, and it loses on a two-goal loss.

The Prediction

Mammoth vs Blues comes down to whether tired legs can keep up with Utah's shot quality. We think they can, barely. Keller finds space, and Utah's power play, which averages 1.21 goals per game to 0.61 for St. Louis, cashes once. Mammoth 4, Blues 3. That adds up to seven goals, over the 5.5 total, though our lean stays on the puck line. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for today sits right below, next to the $1 trial.