Bruins vs Red Wings Prediction & Odds (Nov 18)

Bruins vs Red Wings Prediction: Record Versus Rest

One team has 13 wins. The other has three full days of rest. As of November 13, the Boston Bruins sat 13-5-1 and the Detroit Red Wings sat 7-10-3. Boston plays this one on the second night of a back-to-back (games on consecutive nights) with zero days of rest, while Detroit gets three. That gap is the story of this Red Wings vs Bruins meeting at Little Caesars Arena, Wednesday, November 18 at 7:30 PM ET on TNT.

The Matchup

This is a division game. Boston was third of 8 in the Atlantic, 1 point back of the lead with 63 games left. Detroit was 11 back with 62 left. The season series starts here. The last meeting was 242 days ago, and Detroit lost. Recent headlines cut both ways. On November 12, Montreal snapped a seven-game Bruins winning streak with a 5-2 win.

On November 13, the Red Wings took a losing streak into Tampa. Over the last five games, Boston scored 4 goals and allowed 2.8 per game. Detroit scored 3.2 and allowed 3. The season shot numbers flip the record, though. In per-game averages, Detroit takes 28.9 shots and allows 26.05. Boston takes 27 and allows 28.21. Boston wins 55.54 percent of faceoffs, but it also averages 13.89 penalty minutes a game to Detroit's 8.85.

Players to Watch

David Pastrnak has 24 points over 19 games, which is 1.3 per game. Over his last five, he is averaging 4.2 shots and 1.2 points per game. Lucas Raymond has 19 points over 20 games, which is 1 per game. Over his last five, he is averaging 3 shots and 0.8 points per game. In net, Jeremy Swayman started 3 of Boston's last 5 games. Michael DiPietro logged the most ice time in Boston's previous game. For Detroit, D. Tarasov started 2 of the last 5, and John Gibson logged the most ice time in the previous game. Neither club's starter for this game is confirmed in our data.

Who Is Favored to Win Bruins vs Red Wings?

Odds are not posted yet, so here is what to read when they arrive. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. A minus number marks the favorite, and a plus number marks the underdog. The puck line is hockey's spread (a handicap, usually 1.5 goals). The total is a bet on combined goals going over or under a set number. Every price carries the vig, which is the house's built-in cut.

Our rating, a model built on past results, gives Detroit 51 percent and Boston 49 percent. Treat that as context only. Against the spread (results once that handicap is applied), Boston is 14-5 in 19 graded games, including 7-2 on the road. Detroit is 11-8-1 in 20, and 8-2-1 as an underdog in 11 of those games. Boston's games went over the total 8 times in 19, and Detroit's went over 10 times in 20.

Where the Value Is

With no price, there is no expected value to compute yet. Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if you could make it over and over. Once lines post, strip the vig to get the no-vig number, which is the market-implied probability with the house cut removed. Then compare it with your own read. Our read is that the record gap is the obvious headline. The rest gap, Detroit's better shot profile and Boston's penalty habit are the quieter factors. We would only want Detroit at plus money. Shop every book, because the best number is the whole job.

Who Is Out for the Red Wings and Bruins?

Detroit lists three players on injured reserve (a long-term absence list): Dylan Larkin (C), Simon Edvinsson (D) and Albert Johansson (D). Losing Larkin and two defensemen is a real hit. Boston lists one: James Hagens (C), on injured reserve.

The Pick

Red Wings moneyline, only at plus money. There is no price or book to quote yet, so take the best number posted across books. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official play.

The Prediction

We see Boston's legs fading on the back half of a back-to-back, while a rested Detroit leans on its shot edge. Projected score: Red Wings 3, Bruins 2. That is our read on this matchup, and the Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want the next step.