Blues vs Penguins Prediction & Odds (Nov 19)

Rested Penguins, Road-Weary Blues

The Pittsburgh Penguins are 0-5 against the spread as a favorite this season and 9-5 as an underdog. The spread is a handicap the market sets to make both sides even bets (in hockey it is called the puck line). So when the market trusts Pittsburgh, it has not beaten that handicap once. When the market doubts Pittsburgh, it keeps beating it. That split hangs over Blues vs Penguins on Thursday night, and the schedule adds a twist.

The Matchup: Blues vs Penguins at PPG Paints Arena

As of November 13, the St. Louis Blues are 9-8-2 (wins, regulation losses, overtime or shootout losses). That puts them 7th of 8 in the Central Division, 12 back of the lead. The Penguins are 7-10-2, 6th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division and 16 back. Both teams have 63 games left, so nothing is settled. This is the first meeting of the season. The last one, 219 days ago, was a Pittsburgh loss.

Now the schedule. Pittsburgh gets four days of rest, plays game two of a home stand and does not travel. St. Louis has one day of rest, travels 557 miles and crosses one time zone east, though it is not on a back-to-back. In per-game averages this season, the Blues take 27.16 shots and allow 29. The Penguins take 27.63 and allow 27.74, but they win only 45.98% of faceoffs.

Players to Watch in Penguins vs Blues

Erik Karlsson has 19 points in 19 games, one point per game, which is elite production from a defenseman. Over his last five games he has cooled to 0.6 points per game while firing 3 shots per game. Jimmy Snuggerud leads the Blues with 14 points in 19 games, or 0.7 per game. Over his last five he sits at 0.6 points and 2.4 shots per game. In goal, Joel Hofer started 4 of the Blues' last 5. Arturs Silovs started 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5, though Sergei Murashov logged the most ice time in the previous game. Neither starter is confirmed.

Who Is Favored to Win Blues vs Penguins?

Blues odds and Penguins odds are not posted yet, so we will not quote prices. When they land, you will see three bets. The moneyline means picking who wins outright. The puck line means a team must win by two goals, or a team getting the handicap can lose by one and still cash. The total is the over-under on combined goals.

For context, Pittsburgh has gone over in 11 of 19 games (7 unders, 1 push), while St. Louis is 9-10 over-under across 19. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Pittsburgh 55% and St. Louis 45%. That is context, not a pick. Once lines post, compare every book. A few cents of price adds up over a season.

Where the Value Is

The market's price includes the vig, the house's cut. Strip it out and you get the no-vig number, the market-implied chance with the cut removed. Expected value is what a bet would return on average per $100 risked if you made it many times. We cannot run those dollars until prices exist. Our side read is Pittsburgh: home ice, three extra days of rest and a Blues offense averaging 24.8 shots over its last five. The risk is real, because the Penguins have allowed 4 goals per game over their last five.

Who Is Out for the Blues and Penguins?

Pittsburgh lists four players on injured reserve: Bryan Rust (RW), Elmer Soderblom (LW), Ryan Graves (D) and Trevor van Riemsdyk (D). St. Louis lists three on injured reserve: Dillon Dube (C), Torey Krug (D) and Tyler Tucker (D).

The Pick

Our Desk lean is the Penguins moneyline. No price or book exists yet, so take the best number posted across the US sportsbooks we track, and convert it to a break-even before you bet.

The Prediction

We see fresh legs deciding this one. Karlsson drives the play, Pittsburgh outshoots a tired visitor, and the Penguins hang on late. Our penguins prediction: Penguins 4, Blues 3. That is the read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.