Devils vs Islanders Prediction & Odds (Nov 7)

A League-Best Team Meets a Rating That Disagrees

The New Jersey Devils rank first of 32 teams in expected goals share at 60.2 percent over 14 games. That stat measures the share of quality scoring chances a team creates versus allows. Yet our own rating model makes the New York Islanders the more likely winner. That split is the story of Devils vs Islanders. Puck drops Saturday, November 7, at 7:00 PM ET at UBS Arena on ESPN+, MSG2 and MSGSN.

The Matchup: Who Is Favored to Win Devils vs Islanders?

The Devils are favored at -135. As of today they are 11-5-0, 2nd of 8 in the Metropolitan Division and 6 back of the lead. Headlines say they bring a win streak in, capped by Jesper Bratt's overtime goal in a 5-4 win over the Blues. The Islanders are 7-6-2 and 12 back of the lead. This is a division game. The Islanders won the only meeting 35 days ago, so they lead the season series 1-0.

Both teams have 1 day of rest. New Jersey traveled 24 miles. The Islanders are in game 3 of a home stand. Over the last 5 games, New Jersey scores 4 goals per game and allows 2.6. New York scores 2.8 and allows 4.2. Our rating (an Elo model built on past results) gives the Islanders 54% and the Devils 46%. Treat that as context, not a bet.

Players to Watch

Jack Hughes leads the Devils with 21 points over 16 games, or 1.3 per game. Over his last 5 games he has averaged 1.8 points and 5.2 shots on goal. Matthew Schaefer leads the Islanders with 15 points over 15 games, or 1.0 per game, and 1.2 points per game over his last 5. In goal, the listed starters are Jake Allen for the Devils and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders.

The Numbers: What Are the Devils Odds and Islanders Odds?

The moneyline is a bet on who wins, nothing more. To break even over time, that bet has to win 57.4% of the time. The puck line is hockey's spread. Devils -1.5 at +170 (BetMGM) wins only if New Jersey wins by 2 or more, and it needs 37%. Islanders +1.5 at -188 (ProphetX) wins if New York wins or loses by one, and it needs 65.3%. The total is 5.5 goals. Shopping matters here, because a few cents decide whether a bet makes sense.

Where the Value Is

Every price includes the vig, the sportsbook's cut. Strip it out and the market reads the Devils at 57.7%. That is just above the 57.4% break-even. Expected value is your average result per bet over many tries. So this is a thin edge, not a big one. The public split has 88% of moneyline tickets on New Jersey. That is not a reason to bet.

Injuries: Who Is Out for the Islanders?

Injured reserve means a longer absence. The Islanders list five names: Ryan Pulock (Out), plus Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov (all Injured Reserve). The Devils list one, Seamus Casey (Injured Reserve).

The Pick

The edge is tiny, so the number is the bet. At -140 the break-even climbs past the market's read and the value disappears.

The Prediction

We see Islanders vs Devils tilting toward the deeper, healthier team that is creating the better chances. Devils 4, Islanders 3. That adds to 7 goals, over the 5.5 total. A one-goal win like that would lose a Devils -1.5 ticket, which is why our side is the moneyline. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play daily, and it sits right below.