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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before puck drop: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$62k traded · 852 trades
Montreal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Trades
Money
Spread$7.0k traded · 54 trades
Montreal Canadiens -1.5Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
Trades
Money
Total 6.5$14k traded · 218 trades
Over 6.5Under 6.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$51k traded · 174 trades · $95k open
Montreal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Trades
Money
Spread$28k traded · 54 trades · $47k open
Montreal Canadiens -1.5Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
Trades
Money
Total 6.5$1.0k traded · 31 trades · $2.0k open
Over 6.5Under 6.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $1.0k so far, percentages can swingNovig
Moneyline$83k traded · 465 trades
Montreal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Trades
Money
Spread$7.8k traded · 41 trades
Montreal Canadiens -1.5Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
Trades
Money
Total 6.5$8.0k traded · 171 trades
Over 6.5Under 6.5
Trades
Money
ProphetX
Moneyline$13k traded · 103 trades
Montreal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Trades
Money
Last read before puck drop .
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
Toronto Maple Leafs win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as puck drop neared
Toronto Maple Leafs to win, from 167 hours before the start to 12 hours before the start: Polymarket (international) 50% to 47%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Toronto Maple Leafs, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)Scale 40% to 50%
How the number moved: Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | +1.5 | +1.5 | n/a |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | -120 / +103 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before puck drop, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Montreal Canadiens | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -115Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +113Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -1.5 +208Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +1.5 -212Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 6.5 | O -111Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +108Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Montreal Canadiens
63%
Toronto Maple Leafs
47%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +113 means a $100 bet profits $113 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Prediction: The Price Tells a Story
The Montreal Canadiens are 10-3-3 and the Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-7-2. Yet the betting market makes Montreal only a slim -115 favorite at Scotiabank Arena. That gap between the standings and the price is the whole story. Puck drop is Saturday, November 7 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+.
The Matchup: Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Records and Standings
A hockey record reads wins, regulation losses, then overtime losses. Montreal sits 2nd of 8 in the Atlantic Division, 2 points back of the lead. Toronto is 7 back. The Canadiens lead the season series 1-0 after winning the last meeting 39 days ago. The schedule matters here. Montreal has one day of rest after a 5-4 overtime win over the Mammoth, and it traveled 312 miles.
Neither team is on a back-to-back. Toronto has three days of rest and is in game 2 of a home stand. Special teams lean Toronto. In per-game averages over 21 stored games, the Leafs score 1 power-play goal per game and allow 0.5. The Canadiens score 0.48 and allow 1, while giving opponents 4.17 power-play chances per game.
Players to Watch
Auston Matthews leads Toronto with a season total of 26 over all 17 games, 1.5 per game. Over his last 5 he is at 1.6 points and 2.8 shots per game. Lane Hutson leads Montreal with 16 over all 16 games, 1 per game, and 1.2 points per game over his last 5. In net, the listed starters are Jacob Fowler for Montreal and Sergei Bobrovsky for Toronto. Jakub Dobes started Montreal's previous game.
Who Is Favored to Win Canadiens vs Maple Leafs?
The moneyline is a bet on who wins the game. Books build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads about 52.3% Montreal, 47.7% Toronto. The puck line is hockey's spread. Montreal -1.5 at +208 needs a win by 2 or more goals. Toronto +1.5 at -212 cashes if the Leafs win or lose by one.
The total, or over/under, is 6.5 goals, Over -111 and Under +108. Every best price sits at Novig. For context, Montreal is 2-9 against the spread as a favorite (11 games) and Toronto is 7-0 as an underdog. The public split has 68% of moneyline tickets on Montreal. Our rating has these teams level at 50% each.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is what a bet returns on average over many tries. Toronto at +113 breaks even if it wins 46.9% of the time. The market's no-vig number is 47.7%. The Under at +108 also grades positive at plus $1.37. Be honest about size, though.
Who Is Out for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs?
Montreal lists six names: Josh Anderson and Mike Matheson are Out, while Bryce Pickford, Ivan Demidov, Lucas Condotta and Sam Montembeault are on Injured Reserve. Toronto lists eight on Injured Reserve: Cade Webber, Elvis Merzlikins, Kirill Marchenko, Marshall Rifai, Max Domi, Miles Wood, Nick Blankenburg and William Villeneuve.
The Pick
A weaker price raises the break-even and erases a small edge fast, so shop for the best number before you bet.
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The Prediction
The rest gap, Toronto's cleaner special-teams numbers and a rested home side priced as an underdog point the same way. We project Leafs 3, Canadiens 2. That is five total goals, under the 6.5. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
Injury Report
TORKirill Marchenko (Injured Reserve), Miles Wood (Injured Reserve), Nick Blankenburg (Injured Reserve), 2 more on injured reserve
MTLJosh Anderson (Out), Mike Matheson (Out), Ivan Demidov (Injured Reserve), Sam Montembeault (Injured Reserve), Bryce Pickford (Injured Reserve)
More NHL matchups
Canadiens vs Leafs FAQ
Who was favored in Canadiens vs Leafs?
Canadiens is the market favorite at -115 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Leafs at +113. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Canadiens vs Maple Leafs?
The Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs game streams on ESPN+. It is played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto on Saturday, November 7, 2026, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM Eastern time.
What time is the Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game?
The game starts at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Scotiabank Arena. Montreal comes in on one day of rest, and Toronto has three days of rest during a home stand.
What was the pregame read on Leafs vs Canadiens?
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Canadiens vs Leafs?
The total is 6.5, with the over priced at -111 at Novig and the under at +108 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NHL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NHL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
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