Looking for the next game?
This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$80k traded · 2.7k trades
Navy MidshipmenUAB Blazers
Trades
Money
Spread$117k traded · 1.3k trades
Navy Midshipmen -6.5UAB Blazers +6.5
Trades
Money
Total 49.5$36k traded · 326 trades
Over 49.5Under 49.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$13k traded · 154 trades
Navy MidshipmenUAB Blazers
Trades
Money
Spread$239k traded · 200 trades
Navy Midshipmen -6.5UAB Blazers +6.5
Trades
Money
Total 69.5$35k traded · 23 trades
Over 69.5Under 69.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $35k so far, percentages can swingLast read before kickoff .
UAB Blazers win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
UAB Blazers to win, from 168 hours before the start to 3 hours before the start: Kalshi 18% to 31%; Polymarket (international) 29% to 31%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave UAB Blazers, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
KalshiPolymarket (international)Scale 10% to 40%
🔒 Official Bonus play
Ross has an official play on this game
Ross has an official, documented play on this game, bet with his own money and posted for members with the ticket photo. The side stays with members, so the Desk's free read comes off this page and you never get a mixed signal. The breakdown and numbers below are still free.
Bonus plays, last two college basketball plays won 2-0 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public |
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
|
WHALE WINNER
✓ CASHED · ORE Ducks +7.5 (Spread)
How it won: final Oregon 41, Ohio State 28. Oregon won by 13 and covered +7.5 with 20.5 to spare, a blowout.
|
Navy Midshipmen vs UAB Blazers: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Navy Midshipmen | UAB Blazers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -239Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +233Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -6.5 -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +6.5 -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 51.5 | O -104Pregame price at Bally Bet →Best partner price: FanDuel -105 | U -112Pregame price at DraftKings → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Navy Midshipmen
50%
UAB Blazers
33%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Navy Midshipmen14th in the American Conference
UAB Blazers11th in the American ConferencePlayers to watch
Ryder Burton (UAB)41/72, 478 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
Jackson Gutierrez (NAVY)6/12, 100 YDS, 2 TDHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +233 means a $100 bet profits $233 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Hook: A Last-Place Team Is Laying Points
Navy sits 14th of 14 in the American Conference standings as of publication, and the betting market still makes the Midshipmen a 6.5-point favorite on the road. UAB sits 11th of 14 and gets 6.5 points at home. That gap between what the standings say and what the price says is the whole story of Navy vs UAB on Friday, September 25, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET from Protective Stadium.
The Matchup
Records as of publication: Navy is 1-1, UAB is 1-2. Both are inside the American Conference, both are sitting in the bottom third of it, and both arrive with small samples that tell us less than a full season would. A spread of 6.5 means the sportsbook thinks Navy is the better team by about a touchdown on a neutral read, adjusted for UAB playing at home. The total of 51.5 is the combined points the books expect from both teams. Bet the Over and you need 52 or more. Bet the Under and you need 51 or fewer.
Players to Watch
Ryder Burton leads UAB through the air: 41 completions on 72 attempts for 478 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That is a 57 percent completion rate and, more importantly, more giveaways than scores. Interceptions are the fastest way for an underdog to lose a close game it was otherwise hanging around in.
Navy's passing leader is Jackson Gutierrez at 6 of 12 for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. Twelve throws is a whisper of a sample, not a trend, and the efficiency on it (two scores, no picks listed) reads better than it proves. In UAB vs Navy terms, the turnover column is where this game most likely gets decided.
The Numbers
Moneyline first. That is a bet on who simply wins, margin irrelevant. Break-even on that price is 70.5 percent, meaning Navy must win at least 70.5 percent of the time for the bet to grade out flat. That is the lowest break-even percentage on this board.
Spread next. Shop those books; the prices quoted here are the best we track.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
That was the Desk's read. Want the documented free play too?
Ross's free VIP play lands in your inbox whenever one is on the board, by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends. Every play is posted before the game and graded in public, win or lose. The Official board: 6 straight winning years.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
More College Football matchups
Navy vs UAB FAQ
Who was favored in Navy vs UAB?
Navy is the market favorite at -239 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with UAB at +233. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on UAB vs Navy?
A Friday night American Conference matchup at Protective Stadium where the favorite is priced at -239 and the total sits at 51.5. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Navy vs UAB?
The total is 51.5, with the over priced at -104 at Bally Bet and the under at -112 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Football picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Football games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits