Stars vs Blue Jackets Prediction & Odds (Nov 5)

A Favorite Our Rating Does Not Love

The market makes the Dallas Stars a road favorite at -120. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, actually tilts the other way: Columbus Blue Jackets 52%, Dallas 48%. That is context, not a bet. Still, it says this Stars vs Blue Jackets matchup is tighter than the 76% of public moneyline tickets on Dallas suggest. Puck drops Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Nationwide Arena, on ESPN+, CBJNHL and Prime Video (Local).

The Matchup: Who Is Favored to Win Stars vs Blue Jackets?

Dallas is 9-5-1 as of publication (wins, regulation losses, overtime losses). That is third of eight in the Central Division, six back of the lead. Columbus is 6-7-0 and 14 back of its division lead. Dallas won the only meeting five days ago, so it leads the season series 1-0. Both teams have one day of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back.

Dallas plays game two of a road trip after a 327-mile trip from Washington with no time-zone change. Columbus plays game two of a home stand. The per-game shot averages are close: Dallas takes 25.16 and allows 23.23, while Columbus takes 24.65 and allows 25.58. Over the last five games, Dallas scores 3.6 and allows 3.8 per game, while Columbus scores 3.2 and allows 2.4.

Players to Watch

Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas in scoring at 1.2 per game over all 15 games he has played. Kent Johnson leads Columbus at 1.0 per game over all 13 of his games. Johnson is the hotter hand lately, with 1.6 points per game over his last five games, against 1.0 per game for Rantanen over his last five. Past games are context, not a promise. In goal, Dallas lists Casey DeSmith, even though Jake Oettinger started four of the last five. Columbus lists Cam Talbot, who started three of its last five.

The Numbers: Stars Odds and Blue Jackets Odds

The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. Remove the vig (the sportsbook's built-in fee) and the market reads it 54.2% Dallas, 45.8% Columbus. Dallas is the favorite, but only modestly. The puck line is hockey's spread. Dallas -1.5 at +213 must win by two or more goals (break-even 31.9%). Columbus +1.5 at -223 cashes on any Columbus win or a one-goal loss (break-even 69%). The total is 5.5 goals: you bet whether both teams combine for more (Over) or fewer (Under). Shopping matters: almost every best price here lives at one book.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is the average result per bet if you could place it many times. Both puck-line sides are negative too. The one plus number is the Under 5.5 at +113. It needs 46.9% to break even, and the market's no-vig read on the Under is 47.7%. In its favor, Dallas is 4-11 on over-unders across 15 games by our closing-line math, just four overs. Against it, Dallas games have averaged 7.4 combined goals over its last five. Columbus is 6-7 on over-unders in 13 games. The public split has 83% of total tickets on the Over, and we are comfortable on the other side.

Injuries

Dallas is shorthanded. ESPN's report lists six Stars: Miro Heiskanen (D) and Sam Steel (C) are Out, while Kyle Capobianco (D), Luke Krys (D), Matt Duchene (C) and Oskar Back (C) are on Injured Reserve. That is three defensemen and three centers. No Columbus injuries were provided in our data.

The Pick

If your book only offers a shorter price, the edge is gone, so pass.

The Prediction

Our Blue Jackets vs Stars prediction is a tight, low-event night. Columbus has allowed 2.4 goals per game over its last five, and a Dallas lineup missing six players faces Talbot with DeSmith listed in its own net. We project Stars 3, Blue Jackets 2. That adds to five goals, under the 5.5 total. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.