Ducks vs Oilers Prediction & Odds (Nov 5)

Ducks vs Oilers Prediction: A Big Favorite With a Goalie Twist

The Edmonton Oilers are priced as a clear favorite at -174, yet Tristan Jarry, the goalie who started their last game, is listed Out. Matt Tomkins is the listed starter at Rogers Place, and he started only 1 of Edmonton's last 5 games. The Anaheim Ducks arrive off a 5-4 win in Vancouver under the headline "Gauthier scores 2nd straight hat trick." Puck drops Thursday, November 5, at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+ and Prime Video (Local). Is that price fair or too steep?

The Matchup

As of publication, Anaheim is 7-7-1 (wins, regulation losses, overtime losses), 4th of 8 in the Pacific Division and 10 back of the lead. Edmonton is 11-2-3 and leads the division. This is a division game, and Edmonton leads the season series 1-0 after winning the last meeting 29 days ago. Both teams have 1 day of rest.

Anaheim plays game 2 of a road trip after a 511-mile hop from Vancouver. Edmonton is on its fourth game in six days, its last game went to overtime, and it flew 2,014 miles home from Newark. Against the spread (ATS, meaning results once the goal handicap is applied), Edmonton is 11-5 over 16 graded games but 3-5 ATS at home. Anaheim is 7-4 ATS as an underdog.

Players to Watch

Connor McDavid leads Edmonton with a season total of 40 over all 16 games, 2.5 per game, though he has cooled to 1.4 points per game over his last 5. Leo Carlsson leads Anaheim with 22 over all 15 games, 1.5 per game, and he is heating up at 2.2 points per game over his last 5. Because their games played differ, per game is the fair comparison, and McDavid's 2.5 tops Carlsson's 1.5. Past games are context, not a promise.

Who Is Favored to Win Ducks vs Oilers?

Edmonton. Here are the Oilers odds and Ducks odds at the best prices we track. The moneyline is a bet on who wins. Ducks +174 at ProphetX means $100 profits $174.00, break-even 36.5%. The puck line is hockey's point spread. Ducks +1.5 at -140 (ProphetX) wins if Anaheim wins or loses by one goal, break-even 58.3%. Oilers -1.5 at +134 (ProphetX) needs a win by 2 or more, break-even 42.7%. A worse price at another book raises your break-even, so shop.

Where the Value Is

The vig is the book's built-in cut. Remove it and the market reads about 63.8% Oilers, 36.2% Ducks. Expected value (EV) is your average result per bet over many replays. Our rating (an Elo model) has Edmonton at 61%, a touch below the market, so this is a thin edge. The public split puts 92% of moneyline tickets on Edmonton; that is popularity, not a reason.

Who Is Out for Oilers vs Ducks?

Edmonton lists nine names: Tristan Jarry (G) Out, plus Alec Regula, Atro Leppanen, Devon Levi, Frederik Andersen, Isaac Howard, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark and Zach Hyman on injured reserve (a longer-term absence list). That is three goalies unavailable, which explains Tomkins. Anaheim's report has four names, all unavailable: Ian Moore (Injured Reserve), Ryan Poehling (Injured Reserve), Troy Terry (Injured Reserve) and A.J. Greer (Injured Reserve). Laurent Brossoit is Anaheim's listed starter.

The Pick

Small, but real, and it lives at this price. Take a worse number elsewhere and that edge shrinks or vanishes.

The Prediction

Anaheim has allowed 4.4 goals per game over its last 5, while Edmonton has scored 3.4 and allowed 2.4 per game over its last 5. Tomkins adds risk, but the gap in form and McDavid's season pace carry the night. Our Oilers vs Ducks prediction: Oilers 4, Ducks 2. That adds to 6 goals, under the 6.5 total, though we are not betting the total at these prices. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.