Oilers vs Devils Prediction & Odds (Nov 3)

Why Oilers vs Devils Lands on Tuesday Night's Short List

One team owns 60.7 percent of the expected goals, second of 32 across 11 games. The other rolls into Newark with five names on its injury report, one of them a goalie. That is the tension in Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, Tuesday, November 3, 7:30 PM ET at Prudential Center, streaming on Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu. Expected goals share is simply the slice of the quality scoring chances a team creates versus allows. New Jersey has been winning that battle by a mile. Edmonton has been winning games.

The Matchup

As of publication on October 27, the Oilers are 8-2-2 and the Devils are 7-4-0. Edmonton sits first of eight in the Pacific Division. New Jersey sits third of eight in the Metropolitan Division. The season series starts with this game, so there is no head-to-head history to lean on. Over their last five games, the Devils have scored 3.8 goals and allowed 3.2 per game while firing 34 shots per game. Over their last five, the Oilers have also scored 3.8 per game but allowed only 2.2, on 22.8 shots per game. Volume versus efficiency, in one sentence.

Players to Watch

Connor McDavid has 34 points in 12 games played, which is 2.8 per game. Jack Hughes has 12 points in 11 games played, which is 1.1 per game. Those are per-game rates, the only fair way to line two players up, and the gap is enormous. McDavid is the reason Edmonton can be outshot and still win. Hughes is the engine behind a Devils team whose championship price has climbed 2.8 points of implied probability in five days, from 3.8 percent to 6.7 percent (six readings, captured October 27).

Who is favored to win Oilers vs Devils?

Odds are not posted for this game yet, so nobody can honestly tell you the favorite. Here is what will appear and what each piece means. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, overtime and shootout included. The puck line is hockey's spread, almost always 1.5 goals, so the favorite must win by two or more and the underdog can lose by exactly one and still cash.

The total is the combined goals by both teams, and you bet over or under it. A spread ticket and a moneyline ticket are different bets with different break-even rates, so never let one justify the other. When Oilers odds and Devils odds hit the screens, compare every book you have. A few cents of price is the whole margin in this business.

Where the Value Is

No-vig means stripping the book's built-in commission out of the two prices to see the market-implied probability each side is being given. That is the number you compare your own read against. Without a posted price we cannot run that math here, so this is a matchup lean, not a priced play. The lean is New Jersey. The Devils are at home, far healthier, and second of 32 in expected goals share over 11 games.

Edmonton is missing five players, including goalie Devon Levi. On expected value, the concept is simple: if you risk $100 at a price that pays $100 profit, you need to win more than half the time to profit over the long run. Our job is to only take the Devils if the posted price implies less than what we think they are worth.

Injuries

Edmonton's report lists five players: Alec Regula, Devon Levi and Jason Dickinson on injured reserve, Mattias Ekholm out, and Zach Hyman day-to-day. Note that Levi started three of the last five Edmonton games in goal and is now on injured reserve. New Jersey's report shows Seamus Casey on injured reserve, with Jacob Allen having started three of the Devils' last five. A recent starter is not a confirmed starter. Check the game-day report Tuesday.

The Pick

Desk analysis, not an official documented play: New Jersey Devils moneyline, taken only after you have compared the posted number at every book you hold. If the Devils open short and the market has already paid for that chance-share edge, pass. The number makes the bet, not the logo.

The Prediction

Devils 4, Oilers 3, seven total goals. New Jersey's 34 shots per game over the last five wear down a depleted Edmonton back end, and McDavid, at 2.8 points per game over 12 games, keeps it a one-goal fight into the third. That is our read on a Devils vs Oilers prediction with no price attached yet; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.