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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$994k traded · 28k trades
Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh Steelers
Trades
Money
Spread$361k traded · 3.9k trades
Atlanta Falcons +6.5Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Trades
Money
Total 32.5$54k traded · 1.1k trades
Over 32.5Under 32.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$110k traded · 325 trades
Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh Steelers
Trades
Money
Spread$94k traded · 203 trades
Atlanta Falcons +6.5Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Trades
Money
Total 40.5$21k traded · 59 trades
Over 40.5Under 40.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Pittsburgh Steelers win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Pittsburgh Steelers to win, from 168 hours before the start to 6 hours before the start: Polymarket (international) 63% to 73%; Kalshi 64% to 73%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Pittsburgh Steelers, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 60% to 80%
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Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Atlanta Falcons | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +265Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: FanDuel +250 exchange price | -270Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: BetRivers -286 exchange price |
| Spread | +6.5 -105Pregame price at BetMGM → | -6.5 -105Pregame price at Fanatics → |
| Total 40.5 | O -115Pregame price at theScore Bet → | U -102Pregame price at DraftKings → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +265 means a $100 bet profits $265 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Price Gap Hiding in a Week 1 Opener
The market says the Pittsburgh Steelers win this game about 71.8 percent of the time. The market also asks you to pay -270 for that, when 71.8 percent is worth about -255. That is the whole story of this game in two sentences. Small edges like that are the entire job.
The Matchup
This is Week 1 of the 2026 regular season, Sunday, September 13, 2026, kickoff at 1:00 PM ET from Acrisure Stadium. Both clubs sit at 0-0 as of publication, because nobody has played yet. Falcons vs Steelers is a pure opener: a home favorite, a road underdog getting 6.5 points, and a total of 40.5 that tells you oddsmakers expect a low-scoring, grinding afternoon rather than a shootout. When you flip it and search Steelers vs Falcons, you get the same number from the other direction, Pittsburgh laying 6.5.
Players to Watch
The only players our data names for this game are the ones on the injury reports, so those are the names that actually move this number. For the Pittsburgh Steelers: cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (Questionable), plus DeShon Elliott and Jack Driscoll, both on Injured Reserve. For the Atlanta Falcons: Cameron Williams on Injured Reserve, with Cooper Rush and Za'Darius Smith both Questionable. Questionable means genuinely uncertain. It is not a percentage, and we will not pretend it is one. We are not going to invent production numbers for anyone else.
The Numbers
Three markets, translated. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. Atlanta is +265 at ProphetX, the best price we track: risk $100, profit $265.00 if they win, lose the $100 if they do not. Pittsburgh is -270 at ProphetX: risk $100 to profit $37.04. The point spread is a bet on the margin. Atlanta +6.5 at -105 (best at BetMGM) cashes if the Falcons win outright or lose by 6 or fewer, and it loses on a 7-point defeat.
There is no push at a half point, so no refunds. Pittsburgh -6.5 at -105 (best at Fanatics) needs a win by 7 or more; a 6-point win loses. The total is the combined score of both teams: Over 40.5 is -115 at theScore Bet, Under 40.5 is -102 at DraftKings. Shopping those books matters. Same bet, better number.
Injuries
Six names between the two teams, three per side. Pittsburgh has two on Injured Reserve (Elliott, Driscoll) and Porter Jr. listed Questionable. Atlanta has Williams on Injured Reserve with Rush and Smith Questionable. Final designations land before Sunday's 1:00 PM ET kickoff, and that is the report worth reading.
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Injury Report
PITJoey Porter Jr. (Questionable), DeShon Elliott (Injured Reserve), Jack Driscoll (Injured Reserve)
ATLCameron Williams (Injured Reserve), Cooper Rush (Questionable), Za'Darius Smith (Questionable)
More NFL matchups
Falcons vs Steelers FAQ
Who was favored in Falcons vs Steelers?
Steelers is the market favorite at -270 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Falcons at +265. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Steelers vs Falcons?
A Week 1 opener at Acrisure Stadium with a 6.5-point spread, a 40.5 total and a market that prices Pittsburgh at roughly 72 percent. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Falcons vs Steelers?
The total is 40.5, with the over priced at -115 at theScore Bet and the under at -102 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits