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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$2.5M traded · 61k trades
Kansas City ChiefsMiami Dolphins
Trades
Money
Spread$807k traded · 3.0k trades
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5Miami Dolphins +10.5
Trades
Money
Total 45.5$29k traded · 693 trades
Over 45.5Under 45.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$1.7M traded · 1.3k trades
Kansas City ChiefsMiami Dolphins
Trades
Money
Spread$1.1M traded · 818 trades
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5Miami Dolphins +10.5
Trades
Money
Total 45.5$36k traded · 172 trades
Over 45.5Under 45.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Miami Dolphins win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Miami Dolphins to win, from 168 hours before the start to 19 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 18% to 16%; Kalshi 19% to 16%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Miami Dolphins, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 10% to 20%
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -575Pregame price at DraftKings → | +500Pregame price at Bally Bet →Best partner price: Novig +545 |
| Spread | -10 -105Pregame price at DraftKings → | +10 -107Pregame price at Bally Bet →Best partner price: BetRivers -107 |
| Total 45.5 | O +108Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price | U -110Pregame price at BetMGM → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Kansas City Chiefs
100%
Miami Dolphins
0%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Kansas City Chiefs1st in the AFC West
Miami Dolphins4th in the AFC EastPlayers to watch
Malik Willis (MIA)29/50, 417 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
Patrick Mahomes (KC)47/74, 566 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INTHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +500 means a $100 bet profits $500 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Favorite This Big, A Price This Thin
Kansas City is a 10 point road favorite and the market gives the Chiefs about an 83% chance to win. Here is the wrinkle. Chiefs vs Dolphins kicks off Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 3, and the numbers worth your attention may have nothing to do with who wins.
The Matchup
As of publication, Kansas City is 2-0 and sits 1st of 4 in the AFC West. Miami is 0-2 and sits 4th of 4 in the AFC East. That is the whole story the market is pricing: an unbeaten club against a winless one, with the Dolphins hosting. We have no prior meeting between these two in the data for this season, so treat Dolphins vs Chiefs here as a clean read on form, quarterback play and a 10 point number rather than any revenge angle.
Players to Watch
Patrick Mahomes leads Kansas City with 47 completions on 74 attempts for 566 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception. That is a 63.5% completion rate and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of five to one, which is why the Chiefs are priced the way they are. Miami's passing leader is Malik Willis at 29 of 50 for 417 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Miami has moved the ball (8.3 yards per attempt) without turning it into points, and that gap between yards and touchdowns is the single biggest reason this total sits where it does.
The Numbers
Three markets, so here is each one in order. Moneyline (a straight bet on who wins): Kansas City -575, best at DraftKings, meaning you risk $575 to profit $100. Miami +500, best at Bally Bet, meaning $100 risked profits $500.00. Point spread (a bet on the margin): Kansas City -10 at -105 (DraftKings) wins only if the Chiefs win by 11 or more; a win by exactly 10 is a push, meaning your stake is returned, and a 9-point win loses.
Miami +10 at -107 (Bally Bet) wins if Miami wins outright or loses by 9 or fewer; a 10-point loss pushes, an 11-point loss loses. Total (the combined points both teams score): 45.5, with Over at +108 at ProphetX and Under at -110 at BetMGM. Those are the best prices across the books we track, and shopping them is the edge.
Injuries
Six names between them. Miami lists Robert Beal Jr. out, Jaylen Wright doubtful and Ryan Miller questionable, which simply means uncertain, with no probability attached. Kansas City has Cooper McDonald and Jimmy Holiday on injured reserve and Omarr Norman-Lott out. Nothing here touches either quarterback, which is why the number has not moved off the form line.
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Injury Report
MIARobert Beal Jr. (Out), Ryan Miller (Questionable), Jaylen Wright (Doubtful)
KCCooper McDonald (Injured Reserve), Omarr Norman-Lott (Out), Jimmy Holiday (Injured Reserve)
More NFL matchups
Chiefs vs Dolphins FAQ
Who was favored in Chiefs vs Dolphins?
Chiefs is the market favorite at -575 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Dolphins at +500. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Dolphins vs Chiefs?
A two-win Kansas City team lands in Miami as a double-digit road favorite, and the most interesting prices on the board are not on the winner. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Chiefs vs Dolphins?
The total is 45.5, with the over priced at +108 at ProphetX and the under at -110 at BetMGM. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits