A Loaded Night in Abu Dhabi
On July 25, 2026, the UFC brings a 13-fight card to Etihad Arena, headlined by light heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1) against Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1). The card is stacked with undefeated prospects, veteran gatekeepers, and one genuine coin flip at flyweight. Before we get to the picks, let's cover how the numbers work, because this card is a perfect classroom.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
Get the daily free-play email, at noon ET
Documented free VIP plays whenever they're on the board, from a team with six straight winning years. Every result graded in public, win or lose.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
How UFC Betting Works
MMA has no point spreads. You are betting on one thing: who wins. That is called the moneyline. A negative number is the favorite. Ankalaev at -550 means you risk $550 to win $100. A positive number is the underdog. Guskov at +430 means you risk $100 to win $430. Every price implies a win probability, and sportsbooks bake in a fee called the vig. Strip that fee out and you get the fair probability. Here, the market says Ankalaev wins about 81 percent of the time. One more rule we live by: prices differ across books, so always shop for the best number. The same bet pays more at one book than another, and that difference compounds over time.
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
Bantamweight. Gibson (22-12-0) is +430 at Caesars, Hussein (15-2-0) is -550 at FanDuel. The market gives Hussein a fair 81 percent. Gibson is the experienced veteran, but the market treats him as a live-but-long shot who needs to make this ugly early.
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev
Lightweight. Davis (12-3-0) sits at +205 at Caesars against the unbeaten Aliev (11-0-0) at -225 at DraftKings. Fair split: 66-34 for Aliev. Davis is the most experienced UFC-level opponent of Aliev's career, and the market still gives him a real one-in-three chance.
Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Tuchalov
Light heavyweight. Tuchalov is 6-0-0 and priced at a massive -850 at FanDuel, fair 86 percent. Ribeiro (17-10-0) is +650 at BetMGM. The market believes this is a showcase for the prospect despite his thin resume.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
Lightweight. Sola (11-1-1) is -192 at DraftKings, fair 64 percent, over Bonfim (20-6-0) at +170 at Caesars. Bonfim has nearly double the fights, but the market backs the fresher record. A 36 percent fair chance is far from a write-off.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
Welterweight. Patterson (14-3-1) is -460 at FanDuel, fair 79 percent, over the veteran Ponzinibbio (31-9-0) at +400 at Caesars. The market is treating Ponzinibbio's 40-fight career as a fading asset here.
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
Light heavyweight. Jacoby (22-9-1) is a rare veteran favorite on this card at -174 at FanDuel, fair 61 percent. The unbeaten Said (9-0-0) gets +154 at DraftKings. This is one of the few spots where experience is priced ahead of a perfect record.
Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker
Heavyweight. Walker (15-1-0) is -170 at DraftKings, fair 61 percent, against Petersen (11-4-0) at +165 at BetMGM. Heavyweight is the most volatile division in the sport, and the market's 39 percent on Petersen reflects real two-way risk.
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Welterweight. Vagaev (24-4-0) is -240 at Caesars, fair 69 percent, over Izagakhmaev (22-3-0) at +205 at FanDuel. Two deeply experienced fighters, and the market sees a clear but not overwhelming edge.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
Heavyweight. Kuniev (13-3-1) is -325 at BetMGM, fair 73 percent. Fortune (18-3-0) is +270 at DraftKings despite the better record, which tells you the market weighs level of competition, not just win totals.
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
Lightweight. Two unbeatens. Zaynukov (8-0-0) is -275 at Caesars, fair 72 percent, over Rzepecki (10-0-0) at +240 at FanDuel. Someone's zero goes away, and the market leans clearly one way.
Wellington Turman vs Islam Dulatov
Welterweight. Dulatov (12-1-0) is the biggest favorite on the card at -950 at FanDuel, fair 88 percent. Turman (18-8-0) is +700 at BetMGM. Prices this steep leave almost no room for error.
Ramazan Temirov vs Steve Erceg
Flyweight. This is the coin flip: Temirov (19-3-0) at -108 at DraftKings, Erceg (14-4-0) at -104 at FanDuel, fair 51-49. When a fight is priced this tight, the best available number is the whole ballgame.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov
The headliner. Ankalaev (21-2-1) is -550 at DraftKings, fair 81 percent. Guskov (18-3-1) is +430 at FanDuel. The market sees a wide class gap and prices Guskov as a puncher's-chance underdog.
Where the Value Is
Two dog prices stand out. Davis at +205 needs to win about 32.8 percent of the time to break even, and the fair number says 34. Petersen at +165 needs about 37.7 percent, and fair says 39. Small edges, but positive ones. Temirov at -108 with a 51 percent fair chance is also priced slightly better than true. Meanwhile, Jacoby at -174 and Vagaev at -240 are priced a touch above their fair numbers, so those favorites offer no margin. Big chalk like Dulatov at -950 (risk $950 to win $100) may win, but the payout leaves no cushion.
The Picks
Gibson vs Hussein: Hussein at -550, FanDuel
Davis vs Aliev: Davis at +205, Caesars
Ribeiro vs Tuchalov: Tuchalov at -850, FanDuel
Bonfim vs Sola: Sola at -192, DraftKings
Ponzinibbio vs Patterson: Patterson at -460, FanDuel
Jacoby vs Said: Jacoby at -174, FanDuel
Petersen vs Walker: Petersen at +165, BetMGM
Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev: Vagaev at -240, Caesars
Kuniev vs Fortune: Kuniev at -325, BetMGM
Zaynukov vs Rzepecki: Zaynukov at -275, Caesars
Turman vs Dulatov: Dulatov at -950, FanDuel
Temirov vs Erceg: Temirov at -108, DraftKings
Ankalaev vs Guskov: Ankalaev at -550, DraftKings
The Prediction
The Desk rides Magomed Ankalaev at -550 at DraftKings. An 81 percent fair probability against Guskov's 19 reflects a real gap the market is confident in, and nothing in the pricing suggests the books doubt it. Guskov at +430 is strictly a swing-for-the-fences ticket. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis for education, not an official documented play, so size responsibly and always take the best number available.
22-12-0
15-2-0
11-0-0
17-10-0
6-0-0
11-1-1
31-9-0
14-3-1
10-0-0
12-1-0
19-3-0
14-4-0