Thirteen Fights in Abu Dhabi
UFC Fight Night on July 25, 2026 at Etihad Arena is a marathon: 13 bouts, a wave of undefeated prospects, and several favorites priced so high that betting them is more dangerous than it looks. The bantamweight main event pits veteran Cody Gibson against Abdul Hussein, and the market has already made up its mind. Our job at the Wise Guy Desk is to check whether the prices match reality, fight by fight.
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How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is almost all moneyline, meaning you simply pick who wins. There are no point spreads because fights end by knockout, submission, or decision, not by margins. The number tells you the cost. Hussein at -485 means you risk $485 to win $100. Gibson at +380 means a $100 bet returns $380 profit. Every price implies a win probability, but books bake in a fee called vig. Strip that out and you get a fair number: Hussein's fair win chance here is 80 percent, Gibson's is 20. Your edge comes from paying less than fair, which is why we quote the best price across every US book, always shop for the best number.
Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein
Gibson (22-12-0) is a 34-fight veteran facing Hussein (15-2-0), who the market makes an 80 percent favorite at fair value. Gibson's +380 at Caesars pays over 3.5 to 1, but he needs to beat that 20 percent fair number to be worth it.
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev
Davis (12-3-0) meets unbeaten Aliev (11-0-0). Aliev is -220 at BetMGM, a 66 percent fair chance. Davis at +205 (Caesars) implies about 33 percent, a hair below his 34 percent fair number. Interesting math.
Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Tuchalov
Tuchalov (6-0-0) is -770 at BetRivers, an 85 percent fair favorite despite limited pro experience on paper. Ribeiro (17-10-0) at +600 needs to land in that thin 15 percent window.
Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola
Sola (11-1-1) is -198 at DraftKings, 64 percent fair. Bonfim (20-6-0) has far more fights and gets +170 at Caesars, right around his 36 percent fair chance. The market sees this as competitive but clear.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson
Ponzinibbio (31-9-0) is the biggest name here but a big dog at +350 (Caesars, 22 percent fair). Patterson (14-3-1) is -435 at BetRivers. The market believes the veteran's window has narrowed.
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
One of the closest lines on the card. Jacoby (22-9-1) is -167 at BetRivers, 61 percent fair, against unbeaten Said (9-0-0) at +150. The market gives the veteran a real but modest edge.
Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker
Walker (15-1-0) is -170 at Caesars, 62 percent fair. Petersen (11-4-0) at +150 implies 40 percent, above his 38 percent fair number, so the dog price is slightly stale.
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Two seasoned records collide. Vagaev (24-4-0) is -250 at DraftKings, 70 percent fair. Izagakhmaev (22-3-0) at +220 (Caesars) sits close to his 32 percent fair chance. A live dog by the numbers, not a mispriced one.
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
Kuniev (13-3-1) is -325 at BetMGM, but his fair chance is 73 percent, which prices closer to -270. Fortune (18-3-0) at +260 is near fair value at 27 percent. The favorite is the right side, the price is not friendly.
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
Two unbeaten lightweights. Zaynukov (8-0-0) is -298 at DraftKings, 72 percent fair. Rzepecki (10-0-0) at +260 is priced almost exactly at his 28 percent fair chance.
Wellington Turman vs Islam Dulatov
The steepest line on the card. Dulatov (12-1-0) is -910 at BetRivers, 87 percent fair. Turman (18-8-0) at +650 needs more than his 13 percent fair chance to justify a ticket.
Ramazan Temirov vs Steve Erceg
A genuine coin flip. Temirov (19-3-0) is -108, Erceg (14-4-0) is -105, and both carry a 50 percent fair chance. When true probability is even, the only edge is paying less.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov
Ankalaev (21-2-1) is -550 at Caesars, but his fair number is 81 percent, closer to a -425 price. Guskov (18-3-1) at +440 (DraftKings) implies about 18.5 percent against a 19 percent fair chance.
Where the Value Is
The clearest positive number is Davis at +205. His 34 percent fair chance means a $100 bet expects roughly $70 back in wins against $66 lost, a small but real edge. In the flyweight coin flip, Erceg at -105 is simply the cheaper side of a 50-50 fight, risk $105 instead of $108 for the same true chance. The traps are the overpriced chalk: Kuniev at -325 and Ankalaev at -550 both cost meaningfully more than their fair probabilities support, so size those small or skip them.
The Picks
Gibson vs Hussein: Hussein at -485, DraftKings
Davis vs Aliev: Davis at +205, Caesars
Ribeiro vs Tuchalov: Tuchalov at -770, BetRivers
Bonfim vs Sola: Sola at -198, DraftKings
Ponzinibbio vs Patterson: Patterson at -435, BetRivers
Jacoby vs Said: Jacoby at -167, BetRivers
Petersen vs Walker: Walker at -170, Caesars
Vagaev vs Izagakhmaev: Vagaev at -250, DraftKings
Kuniev vs Fortune: Kuniev at -325, BetMGM
Zaynukov vs Rzepecki: Zaynukov at -298, DraftKings
Turman vs Dulatov: Dulatov at -910, BetRivers
Temirov vs Erceg: Erceg at -105, Caesars
Ankalaev vs Guskov: Ankalaev at -550, Caesars
The Prediction
The main event math is blunt. Hussein at 15-2 carries an 80 percent fair win probability, and the -485 at DraftKings prices him almost exactly there. Gibson's 22-12 experience earns respect, but +380 does not clear his 20 percent hurdle. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official documented play, and the honest read is that Hussein wins this fight far more often than not. Take him if you take anyone, keep the stake proportional to the price, and spend your real bullets on Davis and Erceg, where the numbers actually tilt your way.
22-12-0
15-2-0
11-0-0
17-10-0
6-0-0
11-1-1
31-9-0
14-3-1
10-0-0
12-1-0
19-3-0
14-4-0