Fight Night in Oklahoma City
On July 18, 2026, the UFC rolls into Paycom Center with a card that has a little of everything. The fight the event is named for pits middleweight star Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) against former welterweight king Kamaru Usman (21-4). Around it sit two undefeated prospects, a heavyweight near pick'em, and a couple of favorites priced so steep the sportsbooks are practically daring you to fade them. Before we grade every number, a quick lesson.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
Get the daily free-play email · by 5 PM ET weekdays, noon ET weekends
Documented free VIP plays whenever they're on the board, from a team with six straight winning years. Every result graded in public, win or lose.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is almost entirely the moneyline, which just means picking who wins. There are no point spreads because fights end by knockout, submission, or decision, not by margins of points. The number tells you the price. Du Plessis at -225 means you risk $225 to win $100. Usman at +200 means you risk $100 to win $200. The minus sign marks the favorite, the plus sign marks the underdog.
Books also bake a fee, called the vig, into every price. Strip that fee out and you get the fair win probability, which is what we quote here. Du Plessis is fair 67 percent, Usman fair 33 percent. One more rule: prices differ across books, so always shop for the best number. It is value you are otherwise leaving on the table.
Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano
Barbosa (9-4) is a massive -550 favorite, fair 81 percent, against Melisano (6-1) at +455, fair 19 percent. The market sees this women's flyweight bout as close to one-sided. At -550 you risk $550 to win just $100, so the price demands near certainty.
Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris
A genuine heavyweight toss-up. Hines (7-1) is -135, fair 56 percent, while the unbeaten Harris (5-0) sits at +120, fair 44 percent. The market gives Hines a slim edge but respects Harris's perfect record. Small margins decide fights priced this tight.
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll
The steepest price on the card. Coria (12-3) is -1000, fair 88 percent, meaning you risk $1,000 to win $100. Nicoll (8-3) is +750, fair 12 percent. The market treats this flyweight bout as a showcase for Coria.
Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Odds are not posted yet for this light heavyweight meeting between Franco (10-2) and the undefeated Rodrigues (5-0). Until a number exists, there is nothing to evaluate. Never bet a fight before you can compare the price to a fair estimate.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko
Ko (13-2) is the -195 favorite, fair 65 percent, over Lebosnoyani (10-2) at +170, fair 36 percent. The market believes Ko wins about two of three times. Lebosnoyani needs to outperform a one-in-three expectation to make his price pay.
Austin Bashi vs Jose Miguel Delgado
A true coin flip. Bashi (14-1) is even money at +100, fair 49 percent, and Delgado (11-2) is -110, fair 52 percent. When the fair numbers hug 50-50 this closely, the market is telling you it genuinely cannot separate them.
Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen
The unbeaten McMillen (10-0) is -143, fair 57 percent, against Montes (12-1) at +125, fair 43 percent. Two fighters with one combined loss, and the market leans toward the perfect record, but only modestly.
Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline
Kline (9-1) is a heavy -420 favorite, fair 79 percent, with the veteran Ricci (12-4) at +360, fair 21 percent. The market expects Kline to win roughly four of five times. Ricci is being asked to spring a real upset.
Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez
Hooper (16-5-1) is -330, fair 74 percent, over Ramirez (8-3) at +280, fair 26 percent. A clear favorite, but not an untouchable one by the math.
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Duncan (14-2) is -345, fair 75 percent, against the veteran Cannonier (18-9) at +285, fair 26 percent. The market is firmly on the younger record here, pricing Cannonier as a one-in-four shot.
Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis
Du Plessis (23-3) is -225, fair 67 percent. Usman (21-4) is +200, fair 33 percent. The market makes Du Plessis a two-to-one favorite, but a 33 percent underdog wins plenty of fights.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is simple: is the payout bigger than the risk deserves? At Coria -1000, the price implies about 91 percent but fair is 88, so you are overpaying roughly three cents on the dollar. Barbosa -550 implies near 85 percent against a fair 81, same problem.
The dog side of those fights, Nicoll +750 and Melisano +455, actually pays close to or slightly above fair, though we still expect them to lose. The cleanest prices on the board are Cannonier +285, which matches his 26 percent fair number almost exactly, and Delgado -110, barely above fair in a coin flip. Shopping matters everywhere: Usman is +200 at BetMGM, and even ten cents of extra price compounds over a season.
The Picks
Barbosa vs Melisano: Barbosa at -550, BetMGM
Hines vs Harris: Hines at -135, DraftKings
Coria vs Nicoll: Coria at -1000, BetRivers (price too steep to bet, pick only)
Franco vs Rodrigues Jr.: no pick, odds not yet posted
Lebosnoyani vs Ko: Ko at -195, Caesars
Bashi vs Delgado: Delgado at -110, Caesars
Montes vs McMillen: McMillen at -143, BetRivers
Ricci vs Kline: Kline at -420, BetRivers
Hooper vs Ramirez: Hooper at -330, Caesars
Cannonier vs Duncan: Duncan at -345, BetRivers
Usman vs Du Plessis: Du Plessis at -225, DraftKings
The Prediction
The Desk sides with Dricus Du Plessis at -225 through DraftKings. The vig-free math gives him a 67 percent chance, and the price implies about 69, a modest premium we accept for the strongest side of the headliner. Usman at +200 is fairly priced for a live underdog, but the market has built a clear favorite here for a reason, and we are not arguing with it. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis for education, not an official documented play, so size responsibly and always take the best available number.
9-4-0
6-1-0
8-3-0
13-2-0
11-2-0
12-1-0
14-2-0
21-4-0
23-3-0