Fight Night in Oklahoma City
On July 18, 2026, the UFC rolls into Paycom Center with a card that has a little of everything. The fight the event is named for pits middleweight star Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) against former welterweight king Kamaru Usman (21-4). Around it sit two undefeated prospects, a heavyweight near pick'em, and a couple of favorites priced so steep the sportsbooks are practically daring you to fade them. Before we grade every number, a quick lesson.
How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is almost entirely the moneyline, which just means picking who wins. There are no point spreads because fights end by knockout, submission, or decision, not by margins of points. The number tells you the price. Du Plessis at -225 means you risk $225 to win $100. Usman at +200 means you risk $100 to win $200.
The minus sign marks the favorite, the plus sign marks the underdog. Books also bake a fee, called the vig, into every price. Strip that fee out and you get the fair win probability, which is what we quote here. One more rule: prices differ across books, so always shop for the best number. It is value you are otherwise leaving on the table.
Dione Barbosa vs Anna Melisano
The market sees this women's flyweight bout as close to one-sided. At -550 you risk $550 to win just $100, so the price demands near certainty.
Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris
A genuine heavyweight toss-up. The market gives Hines a slim edge but respects Harris's perfect record. Small margins decide fights priced this tight.
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll
The steepest price on the card. The market treats this flyweight bout as a showcase for Coria.
Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Odds are not posted yet for this light heavyweight meeting between Franco (10-2) and the undefeated Rodrigues (5-0). Until a number exists, there is nothing to evaluate. Never bet a fight before you can compare the price to a fair estimate.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko
The market believes Ko wins about two of three times. Lebosnoyani needs to outperform a one-in-three expectation to make his price pay.
Austin Bashi vs Jose Miguel Delgado
A true coin flip. When the fair numbers hug 50-50 this closely, the market is telling you it genuinely cannot separate them.
Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen
Two fighters with one combined loss, and the market leans toward the perfect record, but only modestly.
Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline
The market expects Kline to win roughly four of five times. Ricci is being asked to spring a real upset.
Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez
A clear favorite, but not an untouchable one by the math.
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
The market is firmly on the younger record here, pricing Cannonier as a one-in-four shot.
Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis
The market makes Du Plessis a two-to-one favorite, but a 33 percent underdog wins plenty of fights.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is simple: is the payout bigger than the risk deserves? Shopping matters everywhere: Usman is +200 at BetMGM, and even ten cents of extra price compounds over a season.
The Picks
Barbosa vs Melisano: Barbosa at -550, BetMGM
Hines vs Harris: Hines at -135, DraftKings
Coria vs Nicoll: Coria at -1000, BetRivers (price too steep to bet, pick only)
Franco vs Rodrigues Jr.: no pick, odds not yet posted
Lebosnoyani vs Ko: Ko at -195, Caesars
Bashi vs Delgado: Delgado at -110, Caesars
Montes vs McMillen: McMillen at -143, BetRivers
Ricci vs Kline: Kline at -420, BetRivers
Hooper vs Ramirez: Hooper at -330, Caesars
Cannonier vs Duncan: Duncan at -345, BetRivers
Usman vs Du Plessis: Du Plessis at -225, DraftKings
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The Prediction
The Desk sides with Dricus Du Plessis at -225 through DraftKings. Usman at +200 is fairly priced for a live underdog, but the market has built a clear favorite here for a reason, and we are not arguing with it. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis for education, not an official documented play, so size responsibly and always take the best available number.
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman FAQ
Who is favored in the UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman?
Dione Barbosa is the market favorite at -550 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Anna Melisano at +455. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
How does UFC betting work?
Almost everything runs through the moneyline: pick the winner of the fight. There are no point spreads. Books also offer round totals (how long the fight lasts) and method-of-victory props. Favorites carry minus numbers, underdogs plus numbers, and prices vary a lot between books, so shopping for the best number matters.
Are these UFC picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
9-4-0
6-1-0
8-3-0
13-2-0
11-2-0
12-1-0
14-2-0
21-4-0
23-3-0