A Card That Can't Make Up Its Mind
One fighter on this card is priced at -650. Another is +567. Meanwhile the two biggest fights at Rogers Place are priced within a point or two of a coin flip. That spread between near-certainty and dead-even is exactly where bettors make and lose money.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott runs October 17, 2026, with thirteen bouts, five undefeated records in the mix, and a market that has already done most of its thinking. Our job is to find the spots where it thought wrong.
How UFC Betting Works
There are no point spreads in MMA. Nobody wins by three. You are betting one thing: who gets their hand raised. That is the moneyline, and the price tells you the cost.
Take the headliner. Mike Malott is -117, meaning you risk $117 to win $100. Joaquin Buckley is +116, meaning $100 risks returns $116 profit. A minus number is the favorite, a plus number is the underdog.
The "fair" percentages above are the market's true win estimate after stripping out the book's built-in commission (the vig). Malott's fair number is 54%, Buckley's 46%. If you think a fighter wins more often than his fair number says, the bet has expected value. That is the whole game.
One more rule: always shop. Buckley is +116 at FanDuel and Malott is -117 at Novig. Taking the worse number on every bet is the quietest way to lose.
SuYoung You vs Cody Chovancek
You is 16-4 with real mileage. Chovancek is 9-0 and unbeaten. The market splits them 54-46 for the undefeated man, which is as close as a book gets to saying it does not know.
Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden
Chandler is 7-4, Croden 8-3. At -317 (risk $317 to win $100), Croden is given a 74% fair chance. Chandler at +285 needs to win roughly one time in four to break even.
Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow
Anheliger brings 13-8 and 21 fights of experience against Koslow's 6-1. The 60-40 split favors the fresher record. Anheliger at +160 only needs to win 38.5% of the time to profit.
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
No odds posted yet. Cerminara is 18-6, Stiller is 6-1. When this number opens, the gap between veteran volume and an unbeaten prospect is where the price will be set.
Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier
Two undefeated heavyweights: 5-0 against 6-0. Someone's zero goes. The market gives Faglier 55% at -122 and Mahjoub 45% at +115, which is a polite way of saying it is a toss-up.
Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti
Galanti at -650 means risking $650 to win $100. The price implies about 87%, but the fair number is 83%. LeBlanc is 10-3 against an 8-1 record, and that four-point gap matters.
Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
Boser is 22-11-1, deeply experienced, and a +190 underdog. Diniz is 9-2 and priced at -190 for a 66% fair chance. Heavyweight is the division where underdog prices get live fastest.
Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo
Landwehr's 18-8 record meets Nallo's 14-4 at lightweight. Nallo is -264 (71% fair). Landwehr at +255 needs to win 28% of the time to break even, and the market says he wins 29%.
Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba
Jourdain is 9-3 and a modest -167 favorite. Cuamba is 10-4 at +163. A 61-39 split is the market saying the favorite is clear but not safe.
Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault
Daukaus at 17-5 is -182. Barriault at 17-11 is +178. Same win total, very different loss column, and the price reflects exactly that.
Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez
Perez is 15-2 and -308. Nelson is 17-7-1 and +295. The market wants the cleaner record badly here, giving Perez 75%.
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
Blanchfield is 14-2 and -290. Jasudavicius is 15-4 and +292. Note the odd detail: the underdog has more career wins. The books are pricing quality, not quantity.
Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley
Malott is 14-2-1. Buckley is 21-8. Malott is the hairline favorite at -117, Buckley the hairline dog at +116. Buckley has faced more fights and more losses; Malott has the tighter ledger and the hometown stage.
Where the Value Is
The clearest overlay is Galanti at -650. Paying $650 for an 83% proposition is paying about four points too much, which makes LeBlanc at +567 the mathematically better side of a fight he will probably lose. Jasudavicius at +292 is priced like 25.5% against a 27% fair read, so a $100 bet there is getting paid for risk the market admits is real. Anheliger at +160, Landwehr at +255 and Cuamba at +163 all sit a point or two above their fair lines. Croden at -317 and Perez at -308 are the opposite: correct sides, expensive tickets.
The Picks
You vs Chovancek: SuYoung You at +115, Novig
Chandler vs Croden: Melissa Croden at -317, Novig
Anheliger vs Koslow: Chad Anheliger at +160, Novig
Cerminara vs Stiller: no play until odds post
Mahjoub vs Faglier: Javad Mahjoub at +115, Caesars
LeBlanc vs Galanti: Julien LeBlanc at +567, Novig (small stake)
Boser vs Diniz: Jhonata Diniz at -190, Novig
Landwehr vs Nallo: Nate Landwehr at +255, ProphetX
Jourdain vs Cuamba: Timmy Cuamba at +163, Novig
Daukaus vs Barriault: Kyle Daukaus at -182, Novig
Nelson vs Perez: Cristian Perez at -308, Novig
Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius: Jasmine Jasudavicius at +292, Novig (small stake)
Malott vs Buckley: Mike Malott at -117, Novig
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The Prediction
We like Malott at -117. Fourteen wins, two losses, one draw against a 21-8 record that has absorbed more damage along the way. The market calls it 54-46 and we agree with the direction, which means the only edge left is the number itself. Take -117 at Novig, not -130 somewhere else, because on a near coin flip the price is the entire margin. That is the read on this card, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one right below.
16-4-0
9-0-0
7-4-0
9-2-0
15-2-0