A Card Built on Coin Flips and Blowout Prices
Movsar Evloev is 20-0 and the books still make him a +100 underdog. That is the tension at the top of UFC 333 at Etihad Arena on October 24, 2026, where a perfect record sits on the wrong side of a pick'em number against Alexander Volkanovski (28-4). Four bouts on this card price inside a point of 50/50. Two others sit near -450. The market is shouting in some spots and shrugging in others, and that gap is where bettors make their money.
How UFC Betting Works
There are no point spreads in MMA. Nobody wins by 3.5 punches. You are betting one thing: who gets their hand raised. That is the moneyline. A minus number is the favorite and tells you what you risk to win $100. Iasmin Lucindo at -345 means you risk $345 to win $100. A plus number is the underdog and tells you what $100 wins. Nicolle Caliari at +300 means $100 returns $300 profit.
The "fair" percentages we list are the books' implied chances with the vig (their built-in commission) stripped out. Lucindo's fair number is 75 percent, so a true-priced ticket would be about -300. She is listed at -345. You are paying a tax above fair. That tax, repeated across a 14-fight card, is what separates winning bettors from losing ones. Always shop every book for the best number.
Nicolle Caliari vs Iasmin Lucindo
Caliari (9-4) against Lucindo (18-6) in the strawweight main event. The market gives Lucindo a 75 percent fair chance on experience and volume of work. Caliari at +300 needs to win one fight in four to break even. The price asks nothing extra.
Noah Gugnon vs Kody Steele
Gugnon is 10-2, Steele is 8-1. A tight lightweight number: Steele -144 (59 percent fair), Gugnon +138 (41 percent). Both are priced essentially at fair value, which means the books see a competitive, winnable fight for either man.
Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki
Santos (14-3) is the slimmest of favorites at -120, Oki (10-4) returns +110. Fair reads 54/46. Translation: the market calls this a near coin flip with a thumb on Santos. Oki's path is landing first and often.
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun
Vagaev brings a 25-4 record and -156 price (60 percent). Malkoun is 10-3 at +146 (40 percent). The number says Vagaev controls more rounds than he loses. Malkoun needs to drag this into grappling exchanges and bank minutes.
Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
Chopurov is 11-0 and priced -450, an 80 percent fair chance. Thicknesse (9-1) at +426 is the biggest dog number on the card alongside Krylov. Undefeated records always get taxed. Sometimes correctly, sometimes not.
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
Dawson (24-3-1) at -115 against undefeated Aliev (12-0) at +111. Fair splits 54/47. Experience versus an unblemished ledger, and the books cannot separate them. This is as close to a true pick'em as lightweight gets.
Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston
Magomedov is 29-7-1 and listed -120 (52 percent). Rowston is 15-3 at +102 (48 percent). Four points of separation. The favorite price costs more than the gap justifies, which matters when you do this 14 times.
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
Krylov owns 31 wins and 12 losses. Yakhyaev is 10-0 and -450. The market gives the unbeaten man a 79 percent fair chance. Krylov at +413 is the veteran being written off on paper.
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes
Murzakanov (16-1) at -203 means risking $203 to win $100, a 65 percent fair read. Reyes (16-5) at +190 has the five losses the market is pricing. Volume and finishing threat decide this one.
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
Pico (14-5) at -110, Keita (17-2) at +111. Fair is 51/49. Keita carries the better record and the plus number, which is an unusual combination and worth noting before you click anything.
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev
Volkov is 40-11 with the longest resume on the card. Kuniev is 14-3-1. Prices: Volkov -115, Kuniev +111, fair 52/48. Heavyweight, where one clean shot rewrites everything, priced as a true toss-up.
Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Temirov (20-3) at -102, Kavanagh (10-2) at -104. Both sides minus money. That is the book telling you it has no opinion and is simply charging rent on a 50/50 flyweight fight.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
Yan (20-5) is -156, a 61 percent fair chance. Dvalishvili (21-5) is +150 at Hard Rock Bet. Identical loss counts, one of them nearly a two-to-one dog. The pace of this fight decides which number was right.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
Volkanovski is 28-4 at -104. Evloev is 20-0 at +100. Fair is 50/50 on both. A perfect record earning no price premium is rare, and it means the market respects Volkanovski's résumé enough to erase the undefeated tax entirely.
Where the Value Is
Start at the extremes. Krylov at +413 beats his fair price of roughly +376. On a $100 ticket you are collecting $413 instead of $376 for the same 21 percent chance. Thicknesse at +426 against a fair +400 is the same story. Both are small-stake dogs, not confidence plays.
Keita at +111 on a 49 percent fair chance, Kuniev at +111 on 48 percent, and Reyes at +190 on 35 percent all pay more than the math requires. And in the headliner, when two sides are both 50 percent, you never take -104 when +100 is sitting right there. That is a free $4 per $100 for picking the same coin flip.
The Picks
Caliari vs Lucindo: Nicolle Caliari at +300, BetMGM (small stake, the favorite is overtaxed)
Gugnon vs Steele: Kody Steele at -144, Novig
Santos vs Oki: Daniel Santos at -120, Caesars
Vagaev vs Malkoun: Abubakar Vagaev at -156, Novig
Thicknesse vs Chopurov: Colby Thicknesse at +426, Novig (small stake)
Dawson vs Aliev: Grant Dawson at -115, Novig
Magomedov vs Rowston: Cam Rowston at +102, DraftKings
Krylov vs Yakhyaev: Nikita Krylov at +413, Novig (small stake)
Murzakanov vs Reyes: Dominick Reyes at +190, Novig
Pico vs Keita: Losene Keita at +111, Novig
Volkov vs Kuniev: Rizvan Kuniev at +111, Novig
Temirov vs Kavanagh: Ramazan Temirov at -102, Novig
Dvalishvili vs Yan: Petr Yan at -156, Novig
Volkanovski vs Evloev: Movsar Evloev at +100, Novig
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The Prediction
Evloev at +100. When the market tells you a fight is 50/50 and then offers you plus money on one side, the decision makes itself. A 20-0 record against a 28-4 record, and you get paid even money to back the unbeaten man. Volkanovski at -104 is the identical fight for a worse return. If you shop and find +105 or better anywhere else, take it there instead, because on a coin flip the price is the entire edge. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on cards like this one, sitting right below.
9-4-0
10-2-0
8-1-0
10-4-0
25-4-0
10-3-0
12-0-0
29-7-1
10-0-0
20-3-0
10-2-0
21-5-0