A Card Built On Coinflips
Two fighters on this card are priced at -335. Four others are inside a point of a true 50/50. That is the tension here: a few fights the market thinks are close to settled, and a stack of fights it genuinely cannot separate. The listed main event, Melissa Gatto (9-3-2) against Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-1), is as close as a fight gets, 52% to 48% once the house cut is stripped out. The card also carries the Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan name, and that one is a coinflip too. When numbers sit that tight, the only edge left is shopping for the best price.
How UFC Betting Works
There are no point spreads in MMA. Nobody wins by 7. You are simply betting who gets their hand raised. That is the moneyline. Negative numbers mean favorite, positive numbers mean underdog. RJ Harris at -335 means you risk $335 to win $100. Allen Frye Jr. at +317 means $100 risked returns $317 in profit if he wins. Gatto at -113 is nearly even money: risk $113 to win $100.
The "fair" percentage is the market's honest read after we remove the vig, which is the built-in commission books charge. Harris at -335 is a fair 75%, so the market thinks he wins three times in four. Your job is not to pick winners. It is to find fighters whose real chance is higher than the price implies. And because books disagree, the same fighter can be +108 at one shop and worse elsewhere. Always take the best number.
Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite
Gatto is 9-3-2, Kareckaite is 6-2-1. The market splits it 52/48 with Gatto a tiny favorite at -113 and Kareckaite +108, both best at Novig. That is as close to a pure toss-up as this sport prices. Experience edge sits with Gatto. Kareckaite only needs one clean round of her own to flip it.
Daria Zhelezniakova vs Alice Pereira
Zhelezniakova is 10-3, Pereira is 7-1. No prices posted yet. When the number lands, Pereira's single career loss will likely make her the shorter side.
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris
Harris is 6-0 and priced -335 (fair 75%). Frye is 6-1 at +317. Small sample heavyweight fights are the most volatile outcomes in the sport, and the market is still paying a 25% price on a fighter with one loss.
Brendson Ribeiro vs Felipe Franco
Ribeiro brings a 17-11 record into a +340 price at Caesars. Franco is 11-2 and -335 at Novig (fair 76%). The market is paying for the cleaner record, not the deeper one.
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
Price is 16-11 at +133, Shahbazyan 12-5 at -135. Fair 43/57. Another near coinflip dressed up as a favorite.
Ismael Bonfim vs Francisco Prado
Bonfim owns the deepest record on the undercard at 20-7 and is still the dog at +133. Prado, 12-5, is -138. The market sees 57/43. Twenty wins for an underdog price is the kind of gap worth noting.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius Walker
Meerschaert is 37-22, a 59-fight veteran, priced +270 (fair 28%). Walker is 7-3 at -277. The market is betting on the fresher, less-mileage fighter.
Otari Tanzilovi vs Malcolm Wellmaker
Identical records: 10-2 and 10-2. Yet Wellmaker is -194 (fair 65%) and Tanzilovi is +186. The books clearly value something beyond the win column here.
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III
Fili is 25-14, Kamaka 18-8-1. No odds posted. Two durable veterans, likely to price near even.
Ketlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez
Souza is 17-6, Godinez 14-6. No number yet. Wait for it.
Jai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo
Herbert is 14-6-1 at +174, Camilo 11-3 at -178 (fair 63%). The market backs the tighter record and fewer defeats.
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Allen is 27-7 and -115 at Caesars. Duncan is 15-2 and +118 at ProphetX. Fair 53/47. The most accomplished record on the card is barely favored over a fighter with two career losses.
Where the Value Is
The two -335 prices are where the money gets uncomfortable. Risking $335 to win $100 on Harris or Franco leaves no room for the chaos this sport delivers. We would rather take the +317 and +340 tickets in small amounts than lay that. Bonfim at +133 is our favorite number on the card: a 20-7 fighter returning $133 per $100. Tanzilovi at +186 with a record identical to his opponent's is the clearest gap between price and paper. Price at +133 is the same idea. Meerschaert at +270 pays 3.7 times what a Walker ticket does for a fighter with 37 wins.
The Picks
Gatto vs Kareckaite: Gatto at -113, Novig.
Zhelezniakova vs Pereira: pass until a number posts.
Frye vs Harris: Frye at +317, Novig, small.
Ribeiro vs Franco: Franco at -335, Novig, small.
Price vs Shahbazyan: Price at +133, Novig.
Bonfim vs Prado: Bonfim at +133, Novig.
Meerschaert vs Walker: Meerschaert at +270, Novig, small.
Tanzilovi vs Wellmaker: Tanzilovi at +186, Novig.
Fili vs Kamaka III: pass until a number posts.
Souza vs Godinez: pass until a number posts.
Herbert vs Camilo: Camilo at -178, Novig.
Allen vs Duncan: Allen at -115, Caesars.
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The Prediction
Gatto -113 is the price we want. She carries the deeper record at 9-3-2, and the market is asking almost nothing extra for it. Kareckaite at +108 is live, and we are not pretending otherwise at 48%, but near even money on the more experienced fighter is a fair trade. Shop it: -113 at Novig is the best number we see, and a tick worse elsewhere costs you real dollars over a full card. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on nights like this one, right below.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan FAQ
Who is favored in the UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan?
Melissa Gatto is the market favorite at -113 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Ernesta Kareckaite at +108. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
How does UFC betting work?
Almost everything runs through the moneyline: pick the winner of the fight. There are no point spreads. Books also offer round totals (how long the fight lasts) and method-of-victory props. Favorites carry minus numbers, underdogs plus numbers, and prices vary a lot between books, so shopping for the best number matters.
Are these UFC picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
9-3-2
6-2-1
10-3-0
6-1-0
12-5-0
12-5-0
10-2-0
14-6-0
14-6-1