Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$53k traded · 579 trades
SassuoloDrawAS Roma
Trades
Money
Spread$5.2k traded · 121 trades · $545 open
Sassuolo +1.5AS Roma -1.5
Trades
Money
Total 3.5$978 traded · 42 trades
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $978 so far, percentages can swingPolymarket
Match result$18k traded · 335 trades
SassuoloDrawAS Roma
Trades
Money
Novig
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
SassuoloDrawAS Roma
10¢16¢76¢
Novig does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket: alternate and period lines
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
Polymarket
Alternate spread 2.5$12k traded · 24 trades · Pregame
AS RomaUS Sassuolo Calcio
Trades
Money
Light trading: $12k so far, percentages can swingAlternate spread 1.5$12k traded · 47 trades · Pregame
AS RomaUS Sassuolo Calcio
Trades
Money
Alternate spread 1.5$540 traded · 20 trades · Pregame
US Sassuolo CalcioAS Roma
Trades
Money
Light trading: $540 so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 0.5$7.7k traded · 34 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Alternate total 2.5$1.1k traded · 30 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $1.1k so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 3.5$4.9k traded · 46 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $4.9k so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 4.5$2.7k traded · 19 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.7k so far, percentages can swingPolymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
- Moneyline: Yes 15% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 75% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 9% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 54% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 12% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: -1.50 23% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: +1.50 98% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: -2.50 1% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: +2.50 93% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 5% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 3% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: -1.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: +1.50 36% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: -2.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: +2.50 36% chance (price only)
- Spread 1.5: -1.50 51% chance (price only)
AS Roma vs Sassuolo: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 10:52 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| AS Roma win | Draw | Sassuolo win |
|---|---|---|
| -285Bet at BetMGM → | +480Bet at FanDuel → | +750Bet at BetRivers → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +108 (Kalshi) · U -113 (Kalshi) | ||
What are the odds for Roma vs Sassuolo at each sportsbook?
As of 10:52 AM ET, Roma -285 on the moneyline and the total is 3.5, with 10 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Sassuolo ML | Roma ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +750 | -335 | O 3.5 -107 | U 3.5 -122 |
| BetMGM | +625 | -285 | O 3.5 -102 | U 3.5 -135 |
| betPARX | +750 | -335 | O 3.5 -107 | U 3.5 -122 |
| BetRivers | +750 | -335 | O 3.5 -107 | U 3.5 -122 |
| Caesars | +625 | -290 | – | – |
| DraftKings | +600 | -300 | – | – |
| Fanatics | +650 | -300 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +650 | -340 | – | – |
| Hard Rock Bet | +750 | -325 | – | – |
| theScore Bet | +700 | -320 | – | – |
Prices from 10 sportsbooks we track, updated (7 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
AS RomaLWWDW
SassuoloLLLLDSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Internazionale | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet AS Roma win, Sassuolo win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, AS Roma at -285 means you risk $285 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Is -315 Even Bettable?
AS Roma sits third in Serie A with a +18 goal difference. Sassuolo has lost four of its last five league matches and concedes 2.6 goals a game. So the books hang Roma at -315, and the real question is not who wins. It is whether any number on this board deserves your money. We checked every line in this Sassuolo vs Roma prediction, and the answer surprised us.
The Matchup
Roma is 3rd of 20 with 24 points from 10 league matches. Its league form reads WWDWD, with 2.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per match over 10. In all competitions it is choppier: L W W L W over the last five, with 13 scored and 10 conceded. Sassuolo is 17th with 8 points from 10 matches, a -10 goal difference and a league run of LLLLD. Both clubs have 28 games left. The per-game averages agree. Roma takes 18.5 shots a game and allows 11.33. Sassuolo allows 17.33 shots and 6.33 on target per game. The last meeting, 301 days ago, went to Roma.
How Soccer Betting Works
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. A moneyline is a straight bet on the result, no point spread. Three-way means three outcomes after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: Roma win, Sassuolo win, or a draw. The draw is the trap. If this ends 1-1, a Roma bet loses and a Sassuolo bet loses. Only the draw ticket cashes. Minus means favorite, plus means underdog. At -315, $100 on Roma profits $31.75. At +490, $100 on the draw profits $490. At +750, $100 on Sassuolo profits $750.
Who Is Favored to Win Roma vs Sassuolo?
Roma, heavily. Here are the best prices across the books we track. Roma -315 at BetRivers. Draw +490 at FanDuel. Sassuolo +750 at BetMGM. Strip out the vig (the house's built-in cut) and the market reads Roma 75%, draw 15%, Sassuolo 10%. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Roma 78% and Sassuolo 22% in a two-way view, which is close to the market, offered as context only.
The total (combined goals by both teams) is 3.5: Over +100 at BetRivers, Under -113 at Kalshi. Roma is 9-0-1 against the spread (a bet on the winning margin) in 10 graded games and 7-0 as the favorite. Roma's games are 7-3 to the over in 10. Sassuolo's are 8-2 in 10. Those over-under records are graded against each game's closing total, not necessarily 3.5.
Where the Value Is
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you could make it a thousand times. The best market price is -315. At -297, $100 would profit about $33.67. At -315 it profits $31.75. No side of the moneyline clears our number. So we look at goals. Our board posts no fair price on the total, so this is a read from the data, not a priced edge.
Sassuolo's league matches average 4.2 combined goals over 10. Roma's average 3.8. Roma's last five in all competitions produced 23 goals, and its expected goals (a measure of chance quality) ran 2.36 created and 1.95 allowed per match. Over 3.5 at even money only needs to cash half the time.
Conditions and Where to Watch Roma vs Sassuolo
The match is at the Olimpico in Rome. Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 2:45 PM ET on Paramount+. Our data includes no weather forecast. Roma gets 3 days of rest after traveling 1,051 miles from Manchester and crossing 1 time zone east. Sassuolo gets 4 days of rest after a 216-mile trip with no time-zone change.
The Pick
Over 3.5 goals at +100, best at BetRivers. Even money means $100 wins $100. The Under sits at -113 at Kalshi, which tells you the market leans slightly toward fewer goals. On a near coin-flip number, a few cents of price is the whole game, so shop every book before you bet. This is Desk analysis, built for learning.
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The Prediction
We see Roma winning 3-1. Roma creates volume, Sassuolo bleeds shots, and Roma's 1.95 expected goals allowed over its last five says Sassuolo can find a goal of its own. That lands the Over without needing Roma to run up the score. The moneyline is fairly priced, so we skip it and bet the goals at the best number. That is our read on this board; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below this preview.
More Serie A matchups
AS Roma vs Sassuolo FAQ
Who is favored in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma is the market favorite at -285 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Sassuolo at +750. The draw is priced at +480. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo streams on Paramount+ in the United States. The Serie A match is played at the Olimpico in Rome, with kickoff on Saturday, November 7 at 2:45 PM ET.
Who is favored to win Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma is the clear favorite at -315 (best at BetRivers). The draw is +490 at FanDuel and Sassuolo is +750 at BetMGM. The market's no-vig read is Roma 75%, draw 15% and Sassuolo 10%.
What time is the Roma vs Sassuolo game?
Roma vs Sassuolo kicks off Saturday, November 7 at 2:45 PM ET at the Olimpico in Rome. The match is available on Paramount+ for viewers in the United States.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits