Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Total 3.5$9.2k traded · 70 trades · $22k open
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
How the number moved: Fiorentina at Sassuolo
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | 0 | +0.25 | n/a |
| Total | 2.5 | 3.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Sassuolo win | Draw | Fiorentina win |
|---|---|---|
| +185Pregame price at Fanatics → | +270Pregame price at theScore Bet → | +135Pregame price at Fanatics → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +150 (Kalshi) · U -156 (Kalshi) | ||
📊 Match Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
SassuoloDLLDL
FiorentinaDLLLDSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Internazionale | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Sassuolo win, Fiorentina win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Sassuolo at +185 means a $100 bet profits $185. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction: A Favorite Without a Win
Ninety percent of tracked moneyline tickets are on Fiorentina. That is a lot of faith in a club that has not won any of its last five matches. ACF Fiorentina visits US Sassuolo Calcio on Monday. For bettors, the price matters more than the names. Both defenses are leaking goals.
The Matchup: Two Clubs in the Bottom Half
Sassuolo sits 15th of 20 in Serie A with 8 points from 9 matches and a goal difference of -8. Fiorentina is 17th with 5 points and a goal difference of -10. Each club has 29 games left. Sassuolo's last five reads DLLDL. Fiorentina's reads DLLLD. Over its last 10 league matches, Fiorentina scores 1.2 goals and concedes 2.2 per match. Sassuolo scores 1.4 and concedes 2.3. Across 9 stored games, Fiorentina averages 16.56 shots per game but only 4.89 on target. Sassuolo allows 7 shots on target per game. Sassuolo had one red card in its last match (Kristian Thorstvedt), so check team news before kickoff.
How Soccer Betting Works: The Draw Is a Third Outcome
Most American moneylines have two outcomes. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: home win, away win or draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Here that means Sassuolo +185, draw +270 and Fiorentina +135. A plus sign shows profit on a $100 bet, so $100 on Fiorentina profits $135 only if Fiorentina wins. If the match ends 1-1, the Fiorentina bet and the Sassuolo bet both lose. Only the draw ticket cashes. That third outcome is why even soccer favorites usually pay plus money.
Who Is Favored to Win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The market favors Fiorentina. Best prices: Sassuolo +185 at Fanatics, draw +270 at theScore Bet, Fiorentina +135 at Fanatics. Take the book's built-in cut (called vig) out, and the market reads Fiorentina 41%, Sassuolo 33%, draw 25%. On goals, Over 3.5 pays +150 and Under 3.5 is -156, both at Kalshi. A minus sign means you risk $156 to win $100. The consensus handicap opened Sassuolo +0.25 and has not moved.
The main total opened 2.5, also unchanged. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Sassuolo 60% to win, but it rests on only 47 rated Sassuolo games, so treat it as context. Against the spread (covering a handicap), Fiorentina is 3-6 in 9 graded games and 1-4 as the favorite. Sassuolo is 5-4 in 9, and 3-1 at home. Both clubs are 7-2 to the over in 9 games.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is what a bet earns or loses on average if you made it thousands of times. No side clears. Nobody is hanging it. So we look at goals. Fiorentina matches average 3.4 goals over 10, Sassuolo matches 3.7. Over 3.5 at +150 needs to land 40% of the time to break even. We have no calibrated fair price on this total, and the market's main line sits at 2.5, so this is a lean built on scoring data, not a measured edge.
Conditions and Where to Watch Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
The match is at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia, kicking off Monday, November 2 at 12:30 PM ET on Paramount+. The forecast is 54 F with a 2 mph wind from the SSE, so the weather is not a factor. Sassuolo has 5 days of rest and plays game 2 of a home stand. Fiorentina has 3 days of rest after a 70-mile trip, with no time-zone change.
The Pick
Over 3.5 goals at +150 at Kalshi. We pass on all three moneyline prices because each sits below our fair number. Keep the stake modest given the missing fair price on the total. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
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The Prediction
Our Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction is a 2-2 draw. Two defenses conceding more than two goals a match should open up. The last meeting, 190 days ago, also ended level. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle the next board.
More Serie A matchups
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina FAQ
Who is favored in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina is the slight market favorite at +135 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Sassuolo at +185. The draw is priced at +270. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina streams on Paramount+ in the United States. The match is played at the Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia, with a forecast of 54 F and a light 2 mph wind from the SSE at kickoff.
Who is favored to win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina is the betting favorite. The best available price is Fiorentina +135 at Fanatics, with Sassuolo at +185 and the draw at +270. With the vig removed, the market reads Fiorentina 41%, Sassuolo 33% and the draw 25%.
What time is the Sassuolo vs Fiorentina game?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kicks off Monday, November 2 at 12:30 PM ET on Paramount+. Sassuolo comes in on 5 days of rest at home, while Fiorentina has 3 days of rest after a 70-mile trip.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits