Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$28k traded · 479 trades
MonzaDrawBologna
Trades
Money
Spread$2.2k traded · 27 trades · $6.7k open
Monza +1.5Bologna -1.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.2k so far, percentages can swingTotal 2.5$18k traded · 105 trades · $36k open
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket
Match result$6.1k traded · 116 trades
MonzaDrawBologna
Trades
Money
Polymarket: alternate and period lines
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
Polymarket
Alternate total 2.5$3.0k traded · 16 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $3.0k so far, percentages can swingBologna vs Monza: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 4:07 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Bologna win | Draw | Monza win |
|---|---|---|
| -145Bet at Fanatics → | +300Bet at Fanatics → | +420Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -113 (Kalshi) · U +108 (Kalshi) | ||
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
BolognaDWLWD
MonzaDLWLWSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionale | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| AC Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Bologna win, Monza win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Bologna at -145 means you risk $145 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Bologna vs Monza Prediction: A Tight Board at the Dall'Ara
Monza games have gone over the total in 8 of 9 this season. Bologna just came from behind to beat Milan on the road. That sounds like a game with an angle. The prices say otherwise. Every number on this board sits within a few cents of fair, and finding value means reading the fine print.
Who Is Favored to Win Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna FC 1909 are the favorite at home. They sit 11th of 20 in Serie A with 11 points from 9 matches and a goal difference of zero. Their league form reads WWLWD (newest first). Over their last 10 they score 1.5 goals and allow 1.5 per match. That is a coin flip of a team, not a contender. AC Monza are a promoted side, 16th with 7 points and a -6 goal difference.
Their league form is LLWLW. Over their last 10 they score 1.6 and concede 2.4 per match. That leaky defense explains the 8-1 over-under record (9 games). Per-game averages this season are odd: Monza take 13.22 shots with 5.56 on target. Bologna take 11.89 with just 3.89 on target. Our rating, an Elo model built on results, gives Bologna 74%. The market says 57%. That gap is context only, not a bet.
How Soccer Betting Works
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. A moneyline is a straight bet on the result. Three-way means there are three outcomes after 90 minutes plus stoppage time: Bologna win, Monza win, or a draw. A draw is a loss for anyone holding a Bologna ticket or a Monza ticket. So a bet on Bologna at -140 needs Bologna to actually win. A 1-1 result kills it. Minus means the favorite: risk $140 to win $100. Plus means the underdog: +400 on Monza pays $400 on a $100 stake.
The Numbers
The best Bologna price is -140 at Fanatics. The best draw price is +317 at Kalshi. The best Monza price is +400 at FanDuel. Strip out the bookmaker's cut (the vig, the built-in margin) and the market reads Bologna 57%, draw 24%, Monza 19%. On the total, a bet on combined goals, Over 2.5 is -122 and Under 2.5 is -106, both best at BetRivers.
The spread opened Bologna -0.75 and has not moved. That quarter line splits your stake between -0.5 and -1 goal. On Kalshi, 99% of the money traded on the total is on the Over, but only 17 trades and $3.3k, so that share can swing. Shop every book. A few cents is the whole game here.
Where the Value Is
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you made it thousands of times. Compare those to the best prices. That is essentially break-even. No side is clearly positive. The draw is the only number that is practically fair.
Conditions
The forecast at the Renato Dall'Ara calls for 62 F with a 6 mph wind from the northeast. That is neutral soccer weather. Both clubs have 2 days of rest. Monza traveled 126 miles and Bologna 125 miles from Milano, with no time-zone change. The schedule favors neither side. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:00 AM ET on CBSSN and Paramount+.
The Pick
We lean to the draw at +317 at Kalshi, at small size. Bologna have only scored about as much as they allow, and Monza can score when they get forward. If you can't get +317, pass. At a worse price this bet is not worth making.
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The Prediction
Bologna will likely hold more of the ball. Monza will create enough to punish a side that puts few shots on target. We project 1-1. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
More Serie A matchups
Bologna vs Monza FAQ
Who is favored in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna is the market favorite at -145 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Monza at +420. The draw is priced at +300. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna vs Monza airs on CBSSN and streams on Paramount+ in the US. The match is played at the Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, with kickoff set for Saturday, October 31 at 10:00 AM ET.
Who is favored to win Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna is the favorite, with a best price of -140 at Fanatics. Monza is +400 at FanDuel and the draw is +317 at Kalshi. With the bookmaker margin removed, the market reads Bologna 57%, draw 24% and Monza 19%.
What time is the Bologna vs Monza game?
The Bologna vs Monza match kicks off Saturday, October 31 at 10:00 AM ET at the Renato Dall'Ara. US viewers can watch on CBSSN or stream it on Paramount+. The forecast calls for 62 F with a light northeast wind.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Quick answers
Where has the Monza vs Bologna line moved?
The spread has held at Bologna -0.75 since it opened; the total has held at 2.5.
Where is the money on the exchanges for Monza vs Bologna?
On Kalshi, 99% of the money traded on the total is on the Over (17 trades, $3.3k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Oct 30, 3:44 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
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