Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$26k traded · 847 trades
InternazionaleDrawAC Milan
Trades
Money
Where to bet this game
Odds for this matchup are not posted yet. These are the regulated US sportsbooks we partner with; the best price lands here the moment the books hang a line.
FanDuelBet $5, get $250 in bonus betsClaim →
FanaticsGet Up to $1,000 Matched in FanCashClaim →
BetRivers2nd Chance Bet up to $500 (PA) + 1x playthroughClaim →
UnderdogUp to $1,000 in bonus funds on your first depositClaim →
NovigDeposit $10, get $50 in Trade CreditsClaim →
RebetFree-to-play social sportsbook with sweepstakes prizesClaim →21+. New users. T&Cs apply. We may earn a commission when you sign up through these links.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
AC MilanDWLWW
InternazionaleDWWWLSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionale | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| AC Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet AC Milan win, Internazionale win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction: The Shot Gap Nobody Can Ignore
Internazionale averages 22.33 shots per game this season. AC Milan averages 12.56. That is nearly ten extra swings a match, and yet Milan won the last Derby della Madonnina, 237 days ago. So which number do you trust? That is the real question behind any inter milan vs ac milan prediction, and it is the one we work through below.
Who Is Favored to Win AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
The betting market has not answered yet, because odds are not posted. The table offers a hint. Inter sits 1st of 20 in Serie A with 25 points from 9 matches and a +15 goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). Milan sits 5th with 18 points and a +7 goal difference. Both clubs have 29 games left, so nothing is settled.
In league play, Inter's last five show four wins and a draw, with 2.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match over its last 10. Milan's last five league games show three wins, a draw and a loss, with 1.9 scored and 1.3 conceded per match over 10. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Inter 54% and Milan 46%. That rating splits the game two ways and leaves out the draw, which matters a lot here.
How Soccer Betting Works
In American sports, the moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) usually has two outcomes. Soccer has three: Inter wins, Milan wins, or it ends level. That is the three-way moneyline. The result counts after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no overtime in league play. If you bet Inter and it ends 1-1, you lose.
If you bet Milan and it ends 1-1, you also lose. The draw is its own bet with its own price. That is why soccer favorites often pay more than you expect: the draw eats a real slice of the probability. A plus number shows your profit on a $100 bet. A minus number shows what you must risk to win $100.
The Numbers
No prices are up, so we start with the game itself. Inter's per-game averages are lopsided: 22.33 shots and 7.11 on target for, 10.5 shots and 4 on target allowed, with 63.12% possession. Milan's per-game averages: 12.56 shots and 4.78 on target for, 9 shots and 4.33 on target allowed, with 60.41% possession.
Against the spread (betting on a winning margin set by the book), both clubs are 6-3 this season in 9 graded games. On totals (betting whether combined goals land over or under a set number), Inter is 5-4 and Milan is 4-5, each in 9 games. When lines post, compare every book. The same bet can pay noticeably more at one shop than another, and the best number is the cheapest edge in betting.
Where the Value Is
Bookmakers bake in a cut called the vig, so their implied odds add up to more than 100%. Strip it out and you get the no-vig fair price, the market's true estimate. Our own estimate makes Inter about 45% to win in 90 minutes, with the draw and a Milan win splitting the rest. Expected value (EV) is what a bet returns on average over many tries. At +130, a $100 bet on a 45% shot is worth about +$3.50 on average. At +110, it is worth about -$5.50. Same team, different number, opposite verdict. Our 45% sits below the 54% rating on purpose, because the rating ignores the draw.
Where to Watch AC Milan vs Inter Milan, and the Conditions
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 3:45 PM ET at San Siro in Milano, streaming on Paramount+. The forecast calls for 51 F with a 3 mph wind from the ENE, so weather should not tilt anything. Both clubs arrive on 2 days of rest after four matches in 14 days. Milan is in game 2 of a home stand and traveled 0 miles. Inter is in game 2 of a road trip after a 154-mile trip from Venezia, with no time-zone change. Fatigue looks even.
The Pick
Inter to win on the three-way moneyline, at +130 or better. No price is posted yet, so no book owns the best number today. When lines open, check every book and take the top price. If nothing reaches +130, we pass.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
That was the Desk's read. Want the documented free play too?
Ross's free VIP play lands in your inbox whenever one is on the board, by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends. Every play is posted before the game and graded in public, win or lose. The Official board: 6 straight winning years.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
The Prediction
Ten extra shots a game over nine matches is not noise. Milan will be sharp at home and allows just 9 shots per game, but Inter's volume should break through eventually. We project Inter 2, Milan 1. That is our read on this derby; if the number never gets there, the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
More Serie A matchups
AC Milan vs Internazionale FAQ
Who is favored in AC Milan vs Internazionale?
Inter's huge edge in shot volume makes it our lean at San Siro, but only if the books hang the right number.
Who is favored to win AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Match odds were not posted at the time of writing. Internazionale sits 1st in Serie A with 25 points from 9 matches, while AC Milan is 5th with 18. Our Elo rating gives Inter 54% and Milan 46% in a two-way split that leaves out the draw.
What time is the AC Milan vs Inter Milan game?
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 3:45 PM ET at San Siro in Milano. Both clubs come in on 2 days of rest, and the forecast calls for 51 F with a light 3 mph wind.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits