Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$5.3k traded · 240 trades
BolognaDrawParma
Trades
Money
Total 2.5$701 traded · 20 trades · $1.5k open
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $701 so far, percentages can swingPolymarket
Match result$5.0k traded · 88 trades
BolognaDrawParma
Trades
Money
Novig
Match result$2.5k traded · 28 trades
BolognaDrawParma
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.5k so far, percentages can swingProphetX
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
BolognaDrawParma
57¢27¢18¢
ProphetX does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket: alternate and period lines
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
Polymarket
Alternate total 2.5$1.3k traded · 17 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $1.3k so far, percentages can swingPolymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
- Moneyline: Yes 53% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 26% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 20% chance (price only)
Parma vs Bologna: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 9:37 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Parma win | Draw | Bologna win |
|---|---|---|
| +430Bet at FanDuel → | +260Bet at Fanatics → | -135Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 2.5: O +112 (betPARX) · U -122 (Kalshi) | ||
What are the odds for Parma vs Bologna at each sportsbook?
As of 9:37 AM ET, Bologna -135 on the moneyline and the total is 2.5, with 10 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Bologna ML | Parma ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -141 | +390 | O 2.5 +112 | U 2.5 -148 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +400 | O 2.5 +110 | U 2.5 -150 |
| betPARX | -141 | +390 | O 2.5 +112 | U 2.5 -148 |
| BetRivers | -141 | +390 | O 2.5 +112 | U 2.5 -148 |
| Caesars | -137 | +390 | – | – |
| DraftKings | -145 | +400 | – | – |
| Fanatics | -140 | +400 | – | – |
| FanDuel | -145 | +430 | – | – |
| Hard Rock Bet | -140 | +400 | – | – |
| theScore Bet | -145 | +380 | – | – |
Prices from 10 sportsbooks we track, updated (2 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
ParmaWDLLL
BolognaWWWLWSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Internazionale | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Parma win, Bologna win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Parma at +430 means a $100 bet profits $430. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Form Says One Thing, the Board Asks Another
Bologna FC 1909 have won four of their last five league matches. Parma Calcio 1913 have lost three straight and sit 15th. The market still asks you to lay -113 on Bologna away from home. So the real question for a bettor is not who is better. It is whether any price on this board is worth paying.
The Matchup: Our Bologna vs Parma Prediction Starts With the Table
Bologna are ninth in Serie A with 14 points from 10 matches and a +1 goal difference. They score 1.4 and concede 1.3 per match. Parma are 15th of 20 with 8 points and a -7 goal difference, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 per match. Both clubs have 28 games left. The per-game averages agree.
Bologna take 11.7 shots and put 4 on target per game. Parma take 9.9 shots, land 3.3 on target and hold just 40.94% of the ball. Bologna come in on 6 days of rest after a 54-mile trip. Parma have 4 days of rest after traveling 70 miles back from Bergamo. One wrinkle: Parma won the last meeting, 272 days ago.
How Soccer Betting Works: Three Outcomes, Not Two
Most American sports have two outcomes. Soccer has three. These match odds are a three-way moneyline, a bet on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no extra time. Bologna at -113 means you risk $113 to win $100. Parma at +376 means a $100 bet wins $376. The draw at +260 means $100 wins $260. Here is the catch. If this ends 1-1, a Bologna bet loses and a Parma bet loses too. The draw is its own outcome, and it beats both win bets. Every time you back a side, you are betting against the other club and the draw at once.
Who Is Favored to Win Parma vs Bologna?
Bologna are favored. The best draw is +260 at BetMGM. Shopping across books is how you get those numbers, and small gaps add up over a season. Books build in a fee called the vig (their cut, baked into the odds). Strip it out and the market reads Bologna 52%, draw 27%, Parma 21%. Parma are 3-7 over-under in 10 games this season, and Bologna are 5-5 in 10. Against the spread (a handicap line that evens the sides), Parma are 5-4 as an underdog in 9 games. For context only, our rating (an Elo model built on past results) has it far closer: Bologna 51%, Parma 49%.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is what a bet earns on average if you could make it many times. We compare the best price to our fair price. It is a hair, not a heist. But it is the only side that does not lose money on average, and only at the best number.
What Time Is the Parma vs Bologna Game? Conditions at the Tardini
Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 12:00 PM ET at the Ennio Tardini in Parma, streaming on Paramount+. The forecast calls for 48 F with a 2 mph wind from the ENE. Cool and calm. Nothing there should bend the ball or the total.
The Pick
This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official play, and the edge is thin, so size it small. We are not saying Parma are the better team. We are saying this is the only price that clears our fair number. Below +375, we pass.
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The Prediction
We see a low-event game. Parma have stayed under the total in 7 of 10 matches, they sit deep with about 41% of the ball, and Bologna land only 4 shots on target per game. Bologna remain the likelier winner by the market's read, and we respect that. But our Parma vs Bologna prediction is a tight one, and our projected scoreline is Parma 1, Bologna 0. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
More Serie A matchups
Parma vs Bologna FAQ
Who is favored in Parma vs Bologna?
Bologna is the market favorite at -135 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Parma at +430. The draw is priced at +260. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Parma vs Bologna?
Parma vs Bologna streams on Paramount+ in the US. The Serie A match kicks off Saturday, November 7 at 12:00 PM ET from the Ennio Tardini in Parma, Italy.
What time is the Parma vs Bologna game?
Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 12:00 PM ET at the Ennio Tardini in Parma. The forecast calls for 48 F with a light 2 mph wind from the ENE, and the match streams on Paramount+.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits