Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Spread$688 traded · 30 trades
Udinese +1.5Venezia -1.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $688 so far, percentages can swingTotal 2.5$18k traded · 210 trades · $611 open
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
How the number moved: Udinese at Venezia
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | +0.625 | -0.875 | n/a |
| Total | 2.5 | 2.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Venezia vs Udinese: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Venezia win | Draw | Udinese win |
|---|---|---|
| +138Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +245Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +217Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total goals 2.5: O -113 (Novig) · U +108 (Novig) | ||
📊 Match Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
VeneziaLLLWL
UdineseLDLLLSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Internazionale | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Frosinone | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Venezia win, Udinese win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Venezia at +138 means a $100 bet profits $138. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Udinese vs Venezia Prediction: The Basement Bowl
Twenty league matches between them. Eight total points. Yet the sportsbooks still make last-place Venezia a clear favorite at +138 over Udinese. That gap between the table and the price is the whole story for bettors on Friday, and our Venezia vs Udinese prediction starts with one question: is anyone actually being paid fairly here?
The Matchup
Venezia (Venezia SSC, promoted this season) sit 20th of 20 with 3 points from 10 matches and a goal difference of -14. Their last five league games read LLLWL, newest first. They score just 0.6 goals and concede 2 per match over 10 games. Udinese sit 19th with 5 points and a goal difference of -12. Their last five read LDLLL, so no win in that stretch. They score 1.1 and concede 2.3 per match. Both clubs are in the relegation zone, the bottom three who drop out of Serie A.
Both have 28 games left. The per-game averages show two leaky defenses. Udinese allow 20 shots and 7.2 on target per game. Venezia allow 17.29 shots and 5.43 on target per game. Neither side controls the ball, and both average about 50% possession per game. The last meeting was 65 days ago, and Venezia lost. Udinese come in on 5 days of rest after a 61-mile trip. Venezia have 4 days of rest after traveling 161 miles from their last game at Como.
How Soccer Betting Works: The Three-Way Moneyline
A moneyline is a straight bet on the result, with no point spread involved. A plus number shows your profit on a $100 bet. In soccer there are three outcomes after 90 minutes, not two. Venezia at +138 means $100 wins $138. Udinese at +217 means $100 wins $217. The draw at +245 means $100 wins $245.
Here is the catch for American bettors. If this ends 1-1, a Venezia bet loses and a Udinese bet loses. The draw is a third outcome that beats both win bets. That is why a favorite can still pay plus money. The market gives the draw a 28% chance, which shrinks everyone else's slice.
Who Is Favored to Win Venezia vs Udinese?
Venezia are favored. The market's no-vig read (the odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee stripped out) is Venezia 41%, draw 28%, Udinese 31%. Every best price sits at Novig. That is line shopping, comparing books so you never take a worse number than the market offers. The total, a bet on combined goals, is 2.5. Over pays -113 (risk $113 to win $100) and Under pays +108. It opened at 2.5 and has not moved.
Venezia are 3-7 to the over in 10 games. Udinese are 6-4 to the over in 10. Against the spread (betting with a goal handicap), Venezia are 2-8 in 10 graded games and Udinese are 2-7-1 in 10. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Venezia 54% and Udinese 46%. It is a two-way read with no draw column, so treat it as context only. The public split shows 55% of tickets and 86% of the money on Venezia.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is your average profit or loss per bet if you made the same wager many times. The test is simple. Is the best available price longer than our fair price? Nothing clears the bar today. Venezia comes closest, and the number we need is +143 or better.
Where to Watch Venezia vs Udinese and Conditions
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 2:45 PM ET on CBSSN and Paramount+. The match is at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Venezia, an outdoor venue. The forecast calls for 50 F with a 13 mph wind from the NNE. Cool and breezy, nothing extreme.
The Pick
Venezia moneyline, only at +143 or better. Keep shopping. If any book posts +143 or longer, the bet turns on.
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The Prediction
Two bad defenses, one home side with a slightly more stable floor. We see Venezia 2-1, with Udinese conceding 7.2 shots on target per game finally costing them. But the price is the bet, not the scoreline, and the draw stays a live threat to every win ticket. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below this preview.
More Serie A matchups
Venezia vs Udinese FAQ
Who is favored in Venezia vs Udinese?
Venezia is the slight market favorite at +138 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Udinese at +217. The draw is priced at +245. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Venezia vs Udinese?
Venezia vs Udinese airs on CBSSN and Paramount+. The match is played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Venezia, where the kickoff forecast calls for 50 F with a 13 mph wind from the NNE.
What time is the Venezia vs Udinese game?
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 2:45 PM ET. The game is broadcast on CBSSN and Paramount+, with Venezia hosting Udinese at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in a meeting of the bottom two teams in the Serie A table.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits