Flyers vs Flames Prediction & Odds (Nov 8)

Flyers vs Flames Prediction: The Last-Place Team Is Favored

The Philadelphia Flyers sit 8th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division. The betting market still makes them the favorite on the road. The Flyers are -111 against the Calgary Flames at +108, and the point spread flipped sides at several books within five minutes. In Flyers vs Flames, finding the best number is the whole game.

The Matchup

As of publication, Philadelphia is 4-10-4 and 18 back of the division lead. Calgary is 7-9-1, 5th of 8 in the Pacific and 12 back. This is the first meeting of the season series. Calgary won the last one, 312 days ago. Puck drops Sunday at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Saddledome on ESPN+ and NBC Sports Phil.

Philadelphia has 2 days of rest but traveled 2,031 miles from New York, crossed one time zone west, and climbs to an arena at about 1042 meters. Calgary has 1 day of rest and has not left home. In per-game averages, the Flyers take 23.95 shots and allow 34.4 (22 stored games). The Flames take 27.71 and allow 28.6 (21 games).

Players to Watch

Joel Farabee leads Calgary with 16 over 17 games, or 0.9 per game. Trevor Zegras leads Philadelphia with 14 over 18 games, or 0.8 per game. Over his last five games, Farabee is at 1 point and 2.4 shots per game. Zegras is at 0.8 points and 2.2 shots per game over his last five. In goal, Dan Vladar is Philadelphia's listed starter, and he did not start the Flyers' previous game.

Who Is Favored to Win Flyers vs Flames?

The moneyline is a bet on who wins, nothing more. To break even over time, a bet at that price has to win 52.6% of the time. Books build in a fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads 51.9% Flyers, 48.1% Flames. That makes it close to a coin flip, with Philadelphia as the slight favorite. The puck line is hockey's spread. Flyers -1.5 at +228 wins only on a two-goal win (break-even 30.5%). The total is 5.5 goals. Our rating gives Calgary 57%, which we treat as background only.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make the same bet thousands of times. Against the market's no-vig read, the Over is our best number. That is an average, not what you win on one ticket. For comparison, the Flames moneyline is plus $0.14, Flames +1.5 is plus $0.41, and the Flyers moneyline is minus $1.42, all per $100 risked.

The case for it: Philadelphia allows 34.4 shots per game, and over their last five games the Flyers allowed 3.8 goals per game while scoring 3. The case against: the Flyers went over in only 7 of 18 graded games. The public split has 69% of tickets on the Over, and exchange traders moved toward the Under. Neither is a reason to bet.

Injuries

Huberdeau is on Injured Reserve. Calgary lists five names: Brennan Othmann (Out), Connor Zary (Out), Jonathan Huberdeau, Kevin Bahl and Samuel Honzek (all Injured Reserve). Philadelphia lists two: Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Grebenkin, both Injured Reserve.

The Pick

It needs to hit 51.9% to break even. The edge is measured in cents, so take only the best price you can find.

The Prediction

Our flames vs flyers prediction has a defense that bleeds shots meeting a home team that has scored 3.4 goals per game over its last five. We see Flames 4, Flyers 3. That adds to 7 goals, over the 5.5 total. That is the read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for today sits right below if you want the next step.