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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$1.7M traded · 44k trades
Las Vegas RaidersNew Orleans Saints
Trades
Money
Spread$470k traded · 4.0k trades
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5New Orleans Saints -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 43.5$255k traded · 1.8k trades
Over 43.5Under 43.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$463k traded · 1.2k trades
Las Vegas RaidersNew Orleans Saints
Trades
Money
Spread$476k traded · 290 trades
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5New Orleans Saints -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 43.5$58k traded · 158 trades
Over 43.5Under 43.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
New Orleans Saints win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
New Orleans Saints to win, from 167 hours before the start to 6 min before the start: Polymarket (international) 62% to 65%; Kalshi 61% to 65%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave New Orleans Saints, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 60% to 70%
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Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +164Pregame price at DraftKings → | -167Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +3.5 -111Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -3.5 +108Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 43.5 | O -108Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Las Vegas Raiders
100%
New Orleans Saints
50%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Las Vegas Raiders2nd in the AFC West
New Orleans Saints2nd in the NFC SouthPlayers to watch
Tyler Shough (NO)62/90, 662 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Kirk Cousins (LV)40/59, 413 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INTHow to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +164 means a $100 bet profits $164 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Unbeaten Team Is the Underdog
Las Vegas is 2-0. New Orleans is 1-1. That is the tension in this one. The market is not buying the Raiders' start, and it is telling you so with a price that pays $164 in profit on a $100 bet. Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET from the Caesars Superdome.
The Matchup
This is Week 3 of the 2026 regular season. The Las Vegas Raiders sit 2nd of 4 in the AFC West as of today. The New Orleans Saints sit 2nd of 4 in the NFC South. Saints vs Raiders gives New Orleans home field and a dome, which removes weather from the equation entirely. Raiders vs Saints gives Las Vegas the better record and the worse price, which is exactly the kind of gap worth pulling apart.
Players to Watch
Tyler Shough leads New Orleans with 62 completions on 90 attempts for 662 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. That is a 68.9% completion rate and a very efficient, high-volume start. Kirk Cousins leads Las Vegas with 40 completions on 59 attempts for 413 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Fewer throws, fewer yards, but six touchdowns in two games. Cousins has been scoring; Shough has been moving the ball. The turnovers matter: three interceptions from Cousins against two from Shough, in a game where a single giveaway can swing a four-point margin.
The Numbers
Moneyline (a straight bet on who wins): Raiders +164, best price at DraftKings. A $100 bet profits $164.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not. Break-even is 37.9%, meaning the bet must win 37.9% of the time just to stay level. New Orleans is the favorite at -167, Las Vegas the underdog at +164.
It loses on a 4-point loss, and there is no push at a half point. Break-even 52.6%. Break-even 48.1%.
Injuries
Six names between the two sides. New Orleans is without Kelvin Banks Jr. (Injured Reserve) and Christen Miller (Out), with Martin Emerson Jr. listed Questionable, which means genuinely uncertain. Las Vegas has Aidan O'Connell and Treydan Stukes ruled Out, and Brock Bowers Questionable. Bowers is the swing name for a Cousins offense built on six touchdown throws. Confirm status with Sunday's inactives before kickoff.
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Injury Report
NOKelvin Banks Jr. (Injured Reserve), Martin Emerson Jr. (Questionable), Christen Miller (Out)
LVBrock Bowers (Questionable), Aidan O'Connell (Out), Treydan Stukes (Out)
More NFL matchups
Raiders vs Saints FAQ
Who was favored in Raiders vs Saints?
Saints is the market favorite at -167 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Raiders at +164. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Saints vs Raiders?
An unbeaten Las Vegas team walks into the Caesars Superdome as a short road dog against a Saints side still finding its footing, with a total sitting at 43.5. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Raiders vs Saints?
The total is 43.5, with the over priced at -108 at Novig and the under at +104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits