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| Market | Las Vegas Raiders | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +146Bet at FanDuel → | -162Bet at DraftKings → |
| Spread | +3 -105Bet at FanDuel → | -3 -108Bet at Bally Bet →Best partner price: BetRivers -108 |
| Total 45.5 | O -108Bet at Bally Bet →Best partner price: BetRivers -108 | U -110Bet at DraftKings → |
Las Vegas Raiders2nd in the AFC WestNew Orleans Saints4th in the NFC South
Tyler Shough (NO)35/56, 410 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Kirk Cousins (LV)21/30, 160 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INTTyler Shough and Kirk Cousins have thrown the exact same touchdown-to-interception line so far: three scores, two picks each. One team is 1-0. The other is 0-1 and laying the points at home. That is the tension in Raiders vs Saints, and it is why this number sits on a field goal instead of drifting anywhere comfortable.
Kickoff is Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET at Caesars Superdome, Week 3 of the 2026 regular season. As of this publication date (September 20), the Las Vegas Raiders are 1-0 and sit 2nd of 4 in the AFC West. The New Orleans Saints are 0-1 and sit 4th of 4 in the NFC South. These clubs are in different conferences, so there is no season series to lean on here. Saints vs Raiders is a one-off, decided on the day.
Shough has thrown it 56 times for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a high-volume, high-variance line. That is a passer being asked to carry a lot, and volume like that in a loud indoor building can produce both chunk drives and the kind of throw that flips a game. Cousins has been the opposite shape: 21 of 30 for just 160 yards, but also 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Efficient in the red zone, short on yardage. If Las Vegas keeps winning the scoring-chance trade on fewer yards, the Saints need Shough to be clean, not just busy.
Start with the moneyline, which is a straight bet on who wins. New Orleans is the favorite at -162 (best price at DraftKings): risk $100 to profit $61.73, and you need to be right 61.8% of the time just to break even. Las Vegas is the underdog at +146 (best at FanDuel): $100 risked profits $146.00 and needs a 40.7% hit rate to break even. Now the spread, which is a bet on the margin, not the winner.
Raiders +3 at -105 (FanDuel) wins if Las Vegas wins outright or loses by 2 or fewer, pushes (your stake is returned) on a loss by exactly 3, and loses on a 4-point loss. Saints -3 at -108 (Bally Bet) wins only by 4 or more, pushes on exactly 3, and loses on a 2-point win. The total is the combined points: Over 45.5 -108 (Bally Bet), Under 45.5 -110 (DraftKings). Those best prices live at different books, which is exactly why we shop.
Strip out the vig (the book's built-in margin) and the market reads this 59.8% New Orleans, 40.2% Las Vegas. Fair prices would be about -149 and +149. So the Saints at -162 cost you minus $3.29 per $100 risked, and per $162 risked that is minus $5.32. The Raiders at +146 are the smallest gap on the board, minus $1.11 per $100 risked.
On the spread, the no-vig cover number for each side is 50%, while Raiders +3 -105 needs 51.2% and Saints -3 -108 needs 51.9%. Expected value simply means the average result per bet over many repeats. Every price here grades slightly negative, so anything we lean on is a matchup opinion, not a priced edge. We like the Raiders side of this number, and we want the biggest +3 we can find, never a shorter one.
Six names matter. For New Orleans: Chris Olave questionable, Christen Miller questionable, Zach Wood on injured reserve. Questionable means genuinely uncertain, so do not assign it odds in your head. For Las Vegas: Aidan O'Connell out, Darien Porter out, Brock Bowers doubtful (doubtful means unlikely to play). Losing Bowers thins the Raiders passing menu that already averaged only 160 yards. Final designations land before Sunday's kickoff; check them then.
Las Vegas Raiders +3 at -105 (FanDuel). That ticket needs 51.2% to break even against a 50% no-vig cover read, so this is a matchup lean, not a mispriced number. If you prefer the outright, Raiders +146 (FanDuel) is the closest price to fair on the board.
We see a grinding dome game with two passers who give the ball away. Raiders 23, Saints 21. That adds to 44 points, which is under the total of 45.5, and it keeps the three in play all afternoon. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Saints is the market favorite at -162 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Raiders at +146. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Desk leans Las Vegas +3 at -105 (FanDuel) in a dome game the market itself prices as a three-point squeeze. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 45.5, with the over priced at -108 at Bally Bet and the under at -110 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.