vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Schalke 04 win | Draw | RB Leipzig win |
|---|---|---|
| +335Bet at Polymarket → exchange price | +300Bet at Fanatics → | -110Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +110 (BetRivers) · U -127 (Kalshi) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Schalke 04DDLLDRB LeipzigDWLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
Schalke 04 average 10 shots per game this season. RB Leipzig average 17.14. That gap drives everything at Veltins Arena, and the public has noticed: 93% of tracked moneyline tickets sit on the visitors. Our question is not who is better. It is whether the price still pays.
Schalke were promoted this season. They sit 16th of 18 with 6 points from 7 matches and a -3 goal difference. Their league form, newest first, reads DLLDW (D is a draw, L a loss, W a win). They score 0.57 goals per match and allow 1. Leipzig sit 5th with 12 points from 7 and a +9 goal difference. Their league form is WLWLW, with 2.4 scored and 2 conceded per match over their last 10. Both clubs have 27 games left. The per-game averages tilt hard. Schalke allow 17 shots and 8.5 shots on target per game. Leipzig hold 53% possession per game, while Schalke hold about 40%.
A moneyline is a straight bet on the result, with no point spread. Soccer has three outcomes: Schalke win, Leipzig win, or a draw after 90 minutes. That third outcome matters. Bet Leipzig at -110 and the match ends 1-1? Your bet loses, exactly as if Schalke had won. A minus sign shows what you risk to win $100, so -110 means risk $110 to win $100. A plus sign shows what $100 wins, so the draw at +310 pays $310 profit on a $100 stake.
We shop every price across the regulated US books we track, because the same bet pays differently in different places. Schalke is best at +335 at Kalshi. The draw is best at +310 at Fanatics. Leipzig is best at -110 at BetMGM. Remove the vig (the bookmaker's built-in fee) and the market reads Schalke 23%, draw 23%, Leipzig 54%. The goals total is 3.5: Over (four or more goals) +110 at BetRivers, Under -127 at Kalshi.
Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has this near even, Leipzig 51% and Schalke 49%, but it rests on only 7 rated Schalke games, so we treat it as context. Against the spread (beating a handicap set by the book), Leipzig are 3-3 in 6 graded games, 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Schalke are 3-4 in 7.
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you could place it thousands of times. At -110 you risk $100 to win $90.91. Thin, but positive. The edge only exists at the best number. At -115, the Leipzig bet turns negative. That is why line shopping is the job.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET at Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen, on Fandango. The forecast is 52 F with a 6 mph northeast wind, nothing that should bend the ball. Both sides have 6 days of rest. Leipzig traveled 227 miles, Schalke 40 miles from their last game in Cologne, with no time-zone change for either.
RB Leipzig to win at -110 at BetMGM. This is Desk analysis, not an official play. The shot profile backs it: Leipzig put 6.43 shots on target per game, Schalke allow 8.5 and create just 3.14. The 0-3 road ATS mark (3 games) is a fair worry, but a moneyline only asks Leipzig to win, not cover a margin. At -112 it is break-even. Worse than that, pass.
We see Leipzig owning the ball and the chances while Schalke absorb pressure. Schalke score only 0.57 per match, but Leipzig have conceded 2 per match over 10, so a home goal is realistic. Projected score: RB Leipzig 2, Schalke 1, which also stays under 3.5 goals. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
RB Leipzig is the market favorite at -110 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Schalke 04 at +335. The draw is priced at +300. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Bundesliga match kicks off Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET at Veltins Arena. The forecast at kickoff calls for 52 F with a 6 mph wind from the northeast.
The best prices we track are Schalke 04 +335 at Kalshi, the draw +310 at Fanatics and RB Leipzig -110 at BetMGM. The goals total is 3.5, with Over +110 at BetRivers and Under -127 at Kalshi.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Public is on Leipzig (93% of tracked tickets on the moneyline).
As of Oct 29, 3:50 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.