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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| FC Augsburg win | Draw | SC Freiburg win |
|---|---|---|
| +200Bet at Fanatics → | +290Bet at FanDuel → | +120Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +118 (BetRivers) · U -155 (BetMGM) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
FC AugsburgDDLDLSC FreiburgDLLLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
SC Freiburg are priced as a +120 road favorite at FC Augsburg, and 94% of the tracked money already sits on them. Our rating, an Elo model built from stored results, points the other way and gives Augsburg 55% to win. Somebody is wrong. The price decides whether that gap is worth a bet.
Freiburg sit 3rd of 18 with 13 points from 7 matches and a +7 goal difference. Their last five league results read LLWDW. Augsburg sit 9th with 9 points and a +4 goal difference, and their last five league games read DLDLD. That is three draws in five. Remember that. The per-game averages split hard. Freiburg take 16.14 shots per game and allow just 9, with only 2.4 shots on target against.
Augsburg take 17.43 shots per game but allow 20.33, with 7 on target against, and opponents average 60.47% of the ball against them. Both clubs score 2.3 goals per match over their last 10. Augsburg concede 1.9, Freiburg 1.4. Augsburg also had Juma Bah sent off in their last match. The last meeting, 286 days ago, ended in a draw.
Most American sports have two outcomes. Soccer has three. The moneyline (a straight bet on the result) is three-way here: Augsburg win at +200, draw at +290, or Freiburg win at +120, all judged on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Plus odds show your profit on a $100 bet, so +120 pays $120. Now the key part. If this ends 1-1, a Freiburg bet loses and an Augsburg bet loses too. The draw is its own ticket. That is why even the favorite pays plus money in soccer. The draw soaks up roughly a quarter of the outcomes, and the market prices it at 24% here.
Line shopping (checking every book for the best price) is our edge, so here are the best numbers we track. Augsburg: +200 at Fanatics. Draw: +290 at FanDuel. Freiburg: +120 at BetMGM. Strip out the vig (the fee books build into every price) and the market reads Freiburg 44%, Augsburg 31%, draw 24%. The total (combined goals) is 3.5: Over +116 and Under -150, both best at BetRivers. Minus odds show what you risk to win $100, so the Under asks $150.
The spread is an Asian handicap of Augsburg +0.25, unchanged since it opened, and the total has not moved off 3.5 either. That quarter line splits your stake: half rides on Augsburg +0 and half on +0.5, so an Augsburg draw wins half and refunds half. Against the spread, Freiburg are 5-2 in 7 graded games and 4-0 as a favorite. Augsburg are 4-3 in 7 and 3-1 at home. Both teams are 5-2 on over-unders across 7 games. The public split: 73% of tickets on Freiburg.
Expected value (EV) is what a bet returns on average if you could place it over and over. At the best +120, a $100 bet averages about -$3.09. No side clears today. We think Freiburg are the better team. Their defense allows 2.4 shots on target per game while Augsburg's allows 7. But being right about the team is not the same as being paid fairly. We need +127.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET on Fandango. The match is at the WWK Arena in Augsburg, with a forecast of 46 F and a 6 mph wind from the NE, nothing that should bend the game. Augsburg have 6 days of rest, play game 2 of a home stand and travel 0 miles. Freiburg have 5 days of rest and travel 143 miles with no time-zone change.
Our Desk read is SC Freiburg on the moneyline, but only at +127 or better. So the disciplined move today is to hold and keep shopping. If any book posts +127 or longer, that is our entry. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
Freiburg's back line has controlled games all season, and Augsburg are leaking 20.33 shots per game. Augsburg's draw habit is real, which is exactly why the price is tight. We project Freiburg 2-1, a three-goal game that stays under 3.5. That is our read on this number; when the price does line up, the Desk posts a documented free daily play right below, along with the $1 trial.
SC Freiburg is the slight market favorite at +120 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with FC Augsburg at +200. The draw is priced at +290. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg airs on Fandango. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET at the WWK Arena in Augsburg. The forecast calls for 46 F with a 6 mph wind from the NE.
The Bundesliga match kicks off Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET. FC Augsburg host SC Freiburg at the WWK Arena, and the broadcast is listed on Fandango.
Best prices we track: FC Augsburg +200 at Fanatics, the draw +290 at FanDuel and SC Freiburg +120 at BetMGM. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over +116 and Under -150, both at BetRivers. The market's no-vig read is Freiburg 44%, Augsburg 31%, draw 24%.
The consensus Asian handicap is FC Augsburg +0.25, unchanged since it opened. On a quarter line, half the stake rides on Augsburg +0 and half on +0.5, so an Augsburg draw wins half the bet and refunds the other half.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Public is on Freiburg (73% of tracked tickets on the moneyline), the money is also on Freiburg (94%).
The spread has held at Augsburg +0.25 since it opened; the total has held at 3.5.
As of Oct 29, 3:49 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.