vs
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Bayer Leverkusen win | Draw | VfB Stuttgart win |
|---|---|---|
| -125Bet at BetMGM → | +333Bet at BetMGM → | +290Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 3.5: O -129 (BetRivers) · U +117 (Kalshi) | ||
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Bayer LeverkusenDLWWWVfB StuttgartDLDLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
Ninety percent of the money tracked on this game is on Bayer Leverkusen. The price has not moved an inch. When the crowd piles in and the number stays put, the market is telling you it already agrees with the crowd. VfB Stuttgart visit BayArena on Saturday, and this one is a clean lesson in the gap between picking a winner and finding a bet.
Leverkusen sit 4th of 18 in the Bundesliga with 13 points from 7 matches and a +4 goal difference. Their last five across all games read DLWWW, newest first. Stuttgart are 15th with 6 points from 7 matches and a -3 goal difference, with form of DLDLW. The shot data shows the gap. These are per-game averages over seven stored games.
Leverkusen take 18.14 shots and allow 12.75, with just 4 on target against. Stuttgart take 16.86 but allow 20, with 6.67 on target against. Both teams score, though. Over their last 10, Leverkusen average 2.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Stuttgart average 1.8 and 1.9. Stuttgart also won the last meeting, 175 days ago.
An American moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) usually has two sides. Soccer has three: home win, away win, or a draw after 90 minutes. Here, $100 on Leverkusen at -125 profits $80. $100 on Stuttgart at +285 profits $285. $100 on the draw at +333 profits $333. Here is the trap. If it ends 1-1, the Leverkusen bet loses and so does the Stuttgart bet. A draw is not a push (a refund). It is a separate result that beats both win bets, and the market gives it about one match in five.
Shopping across regulated US books, the best Leverkusen price is -125 at BetMGM. The best draw is +333, also at BetMGM. The best Stuttgart number is +285 at BetRivers. Remove the vig (the book's built-in cut) and the market reads Leverkusen 54%, draw 21%, Stuttgart 25%. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Leverkusen at 65% in a win-or-lose view.
Treat that as context only. The spread is an Asian handicap (a goal head start that can split the draw) at Leverkusen -0.75, unchanged since it opened. Leverkusen are 3-0 against the spread at home (3 games). Stuttgart are 1-2 on the road (3 games). The total (combined goals) is 3.5. Over is -127 at BetRivers and Under is +113 at Kalshi, also unchanged since open.
Expected value is what a bet returns on average if you could place it thousands of times. The draw at +333 is about -$5.87. Stuttgart at +285 is about -$3.75, the closest on the board. Nothing is positive today. The public split (79% of tickets and 90% of money on Leverkusen) has not pushed the price off fair. That is why the best number matters.
Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET from BayArena in Leverkusen, on Fandango. The forecast is 52 F with a 6 mph wind from the NNE, mild weather that should not tilt anything. Stuttgart arrive on 7 days of rest after a 183-mile trip. Leverkusen have 5 days of rest after traveling 149 miles from Sinsheim. Neither side changes time zones.
Our lean is VfB Stuttgart to win, with the best price at +285 on BetRivers, at small size. If you see that number, it is a fair bet. If the price drops below +285, pass. Stuttgart create 16.86 shots per game, and Leverkusen concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 10, so the upset path is real. Remember that a draw loses this ticket too.
Leverkusen are the likelier winner, with the tighter defense and a 3-0 home record against the spread. Likely does not mean worth -125. We project Leverkusen 2-1, a result where our Stuttgart lean loses, and that is fine. An underdog priced correctly is supposed to lose most of the time. The edge lives in the number, not the scoreline. That is the full read on this price, and the natural next step is the Desk's documented free play, which sits right below.
Bayer Leverkusen is the market favorite at -125 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with VfB Stuttgart at +290. The draw is priced at +333. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart airs on Fandango. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 AM ET from BayArena in Leverkusen. The kickoff forecast calls for 52 F with a 6 mph wind from the NNE.
The best prices across tracked US books are Bayer Leverkusen -125 at BetMGM, the draw +333 at BetMGM, and VfB Stuttgart +285 at BetRivers. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over -127 at BetRivers and Under +113 at Kalshi. The spread opened at Leverkusen -0.75 and has not moved.
Bayer Leverkusen are 4th of 18 with 13 points from 7 matches and a +4 goal difference. VfB Stuttgart are 15th with 6 points from 7 matches and a -3 goal difference. Both clubs have 27 games left this season.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Public is on Leverkusen (79% of tracked tickets on the moneyline), the money is also on Leverkusen (90%).
The spread has held at Leverkusen -0.75 since it opened; the total has held at 3.5.
As of Oct 29, 3:47 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.