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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| SV Elversberg win | Draw | Mainz win |
|---|---|---|
| +220Bet at Fanatics → | +300Kalshi exchange price | +115Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 3.5: O +125 (betPARX) · U -127 (Kalshi) | ||
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
SV ElversbergDLWLDMainzDLWLW| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
The market makes Mainz the road favorite at +115. Our own Elo rating makes SV Elversberg a 60 percent home side. That is a wide disagreement, and the fine print matters: the rating has only 7 stored games on Elversberg against 69 on Mainz, so we hold it loosely. Still, something is off-balance here. Both clubs sit on 10 points. The promoted team is 3-0 against the spread at home. The favorite is 0-4 against the spread at home. Start digging and the goals, not the sides, become the interesting part.
Mainz sit 7th of 18 with 10 points from 7 matches and a plus-3 goal difference. SV Elversberg (Elversberg from here) sit 8th with the same 10 points and a minus-3 difference, promoted this season. Twenty-seven games remain for both. Across the last five in all competitions, Elversberg read DLWLD and Mainz read DLWLW. League-only form is choppier: LWLDL for Elversberg, LWLWL for Mainz.
Neither club has strung anything together. The shot profiles split hard. Over 7 stored games this season, Mainz average 17.86 total shots, 6.29 on target and 51.31 percent possession per game. Elversberg average 10.29 shots, 4.14 on target and 44.4 percent possession per game. Goals tell the rest: Mainz 2.1 scored and 1.7 conceded per match over 10, Elversberg 1.71 scored and 2.14 conceded per match over 7.
Soccer moneylines have three outcomes, not two. You can back the home win, the away win, or the draw. League games end after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a tie is a real result that gets paid out. That is the part American bettors get burned by. If this game finishes 1-1, both the Elversberg ticket at +215 and the Mainz ticket at +115 lose, and only the draw at +300 cashes. The market gives the draw a 24 percent chance. Roughly one in four. Price your win bets knowing a quarter of the outcome space is already spoken for.
Elversberg are +215 at betPARX, meaning $100 risked returns $215 in profit. The draw is +300 at Kalshi. Mainz are +115 at BetMGM. The total is set at 3.5 goals: Over +125 at betPARX, Under -133 at Kalshi (risk $133 to win $100). Those are the best numbers across the books we track. Shopping is not optional. It is the whole job.
Compare that to the board. Every best price is shorter than fair. Expected value, the long-run profit per bet, is negative on all three. So we pass the moneyline and go to the total. Over 3.5 at +125 needs to hit 44.4 percent of the time to break even. Combined scoring rates in these samples run about 3.8 goals a game. Mainz are 4-2 to the over-under in 6 graded games, Elversberg 4-3 in 7, and Mainz generate 6.29 shots on target per game against a defense conceding 2.14.
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg. Forecast at kickoff is 45 F with a 10 mph ENE wind, cool but not disruptive. Both teams have 5 days of rest. Mainz traveled 69 miles from home, Elversberg 270 miles from Leipzig, no time-zone change for either. Kickoff is Friday, October 30 at 3:30 PM ET on Fandango.
Over 3.5 goals at +125, best price at betPARX. We are not paying a short number on a side the board already has correct.
Elversberg defend at 44.4 percent possession and live with volume against them. Mainz pile up shots and still concede 1.7 a game. That combination gets to four. We project 2-2, with the draw very much alive as a side outcome. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Mainz is the slight market favorite at +115 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with SV Elversberg at +220. The draw is priced at +300. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The broadcast listing for this match is Fandango. Kickoff is Friday, October 30 at 3:30 PM ET from URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg. That is the only network and start time our data lists for this fixture, so plan around it.
Best prices across the books we track: SV Elversberg +215 at betPARX, the draw +300 at Kalshi, and Mainz +115 at BetMGM. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over +125 at betPARX and Under -133 at Kalshi. Shop every number.
Both sit on 10 points from 7 matches, Mainz 7th of 18 at plus-3 goal difference and Elversberg 8th at minus-3. Mainz average 17.86 shots per game over 7 stored games; Elversberg, promoted this season, average 10.29 shots per game.
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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