Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$9.9k traded · 116 trades
CagliariDrawLazio
Trades
Money
Polymarket
Match result$3.4k traded · 57 trades
CagliariDrawLazio
Trades
Money
Light trading: $3.4k so far, percentages can swingLazio vs Cagliari: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 5:52 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Lazio win | Draw | Cagliari win |
|---|---|---|
| -220Bet at BetMGM → | +375Bet at Fanatics → | +650Bet at theScore Bet → |
| Total goals 2.5: O -122 (Bally Bet) · U +113 (Kalshi) | ||
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
LazioDWWWW
CagliariDLLDWSerie A table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internazionale | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| AS Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| AC Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Lazio win, Cagliari win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Lazio at -220 means you risk $220 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Cagliari vs Lazio Prediction: A Five-Game Streak Meets a -210 Price
Lazio have won five straight Serie A matches, and the betting market wants you to pay for every one of them. At -210, you risk $210 to win $100 on a team the market itself says fails to win this game about one time in three. That gap between a hot team and a fair price is the whole story of this Cagliari vs Lazio prediction. Let's walk it slowly.
Who Is Favored to Win Lazio vs Cagliari?
SS Lazio host Cagliari Calcio at the Olimpico, and Lazio are the clear favorite. Lazio sit 2nd of 20 in Serie A with 25 points from 9 matches and a +15 goal difference. Over their last 10 league games they score 2.4 goals and concede 0.8 per match. Cagliari sit 10th with 13 points and a -5 goal difference. They score 1 and concede 1.4 per match over their last 10. Their last five league results read LLLDW. The shot data backs the gap.
In per-game averages over 9 stored games, Lazio take 14.11 shots and allow 10.6. Cagliari allow 16.75 shots per game and average just 42.53% possession. Against the spread (a handicap that evens the teams out for betting), Lazio are 8-1 in 9 graded games, including 5-1 as a favorite. Cagliari are 6-3 in 9, including 4-2 as an underdog. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, has Lazio at 72% and Cagliari at 28%. That model ignores the draw, so treat it only as context. The last meeting, 253 days ago, ended in a draw.
How Soccer Betting Works
Most American sports have two outcomes. Soccer has three. The main bet is the three-way moneyline (a straight bet on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time). You can pick Lazio to win, Cagliari to win, or a draw. Here is why that matters. If you bet Lazio and the match ends 1-1, you lose. If you bet Cagliari and it ends 1-1, you lose too. The draw is its own bet, priced at +376 here, so $100 wins $376. A Lazio bet at -210 is not a bet that Lazio avoid defeat. It is a bet that they win outright.
The Numbers on Lazio vs Cagliari
Lazio at -210 is the best price, at BetMGM. A minus sign means you lay $210 to win $100. Cagliari at +650 is best at theScore Bet, so $100 wins $650. The draw at +376 is best at Kalshi. Strip out the vig (the house cut baked into every price) and the market reads Lazio 67%, draw 20%, Cagliari 13%. On the total (combined goals by both teams), Over 2.5 is -118 at Bally Bet.
Three or more goals pays $100 on $118. Under 2.5 is +108 at Kalshi, so two or fewer goals pays $108 on $100. Lazio are 6-3 to the over this season (9 games). Cagliari are 3-6 (9 games). Those trends pull in opposite directions. Every price above is the best we found across the books we track. Taking a worse number at another book quietly costs you money.
Where the Value Is
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you could place it thousands of times. We compare each best price to our fair price. That is the only side on this board priced above fair. The edge is thin, about 27 cents per $100. But it is positive, and it only exists at the best number.
What Time Is the Lazio vs Cagliari Game?
Kickoff is Sunday, November 1 at 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+. The forecast at the Olimpico in Rome calls for 59 F with a 15 mph wind from the north, worth noting on crosses and long balls. Both clubs have 4 days of rest. Cagliari traveled 0 miles, since their last game was also in Rome, and this is game 2 of their road trip. Lazio come home 216 miles from Reggio Emilia. Neither side changes time zones.
The Pick
We lean Cagliari to win at +650 at theScore Bet. Keep the stake small. This is a price play, not a claim that Cagliari are the better team. It is the only number on the board that clears our fair price, and only at this book.
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The Prediction
Here is our honest Lazio vs Cagliari prediction. Lazio are the likeliest winner, and we project Lazio 2-0. Their league scoring rate, the shot gap and Cagliari's low possession all point that way. That does not clash with the pick. A +650 ticket loses most of the time. You bet it because the payout outruns the risk, and that is how the math is supposed to work over many bets, not one. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
More Serie A matchups
Lazio vs Cagliari FAQ
Who is favored in Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio is the market favorite at -220 (best price at BetMGM) on the moneyline, with Cagliari at +650. The draw is priced at +375. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio vs Cagliari airs on Paramount+. Kickoff is Sunday, November 1 at 9:00 AM ET at the Olimpico in Rome, with a forecast of 59 F and a 15 mph wind from the north.
Who is favored to win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio are the clear favorite. The best price is -210 at BetMGM. The market's no-vig read gives Lazio 67%, the draw 20% and Cagliari 13%. Lazio sit 2nd in Serie A with 25 points, while Cagliari sit 10th with 13.
What time is the Lazio vs Cagliari game?
The match kicks off Sunday, November 1 at 9:00 AM ET at the Olimpico in Rome. Both clubs come in on 4 days of rest, and the broadcast is on Paramount+.
Can you bet on a draw in Serie A?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Serie A picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits