Lightning vs Wild Prediction & Odds (Nov 7)

Lightning vs Wild Prediction: The Better Record Is the Underdog

The Minnesota Wild are 12-3-3 and sit 1st of 8 in the Central Division. The betting market still makes them a home underdog at +133. The Tampa Bay Lightning are 10-3-2 and 3rd of 8 in the Atlantic, yet they are the road favorite at -130. That gap between the standings and the price is the story of this game. Puck drops Saturday, November 7 at 8:00 PM ET at Grand Casino Arena, on ESPN+, The Spot - MTN and MINNHL.

The Matchup: Who Is Favored to Win Lightning vs Wild?

Tampa Bay is favored. Hockey records read wins, regulation losses, then overtime or shootout losses. So 10-3-2 means 10 wins, 3 regulation losses and 2 extra-time losses. Tampa Bay leads the season series 1-0. Over the last five games, the Wild scored 3.8 goals and allowed 2 per game. The Lightning scored 4.4 and allowed 3.4.

Tampa Bay put up 30.2 shots per game in that stretch, Minnesota 28.2. The listed starting goalies are Dennis Hildeby for the Lightning and Calvin Pickard for the Wild. That is worth noting, because Vasilevskiy started 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 and Wallstedt started 4 of Minnesota's last 5. A recent starter is not a confirmed starter, so check before puck drop.

Players to Watch

Kirill Kaprizov leads the Wild with a season line of 30 over all 18 games, or 1.7 per game. He has 1.8 points per game over his last five games and 2.6 shots on goal per game in that span. The latest headline says he scored his NHL-leading 16th goal and added 3 assists in a 4-1 win over the Sharks. Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 20 over all 15 games, or 1.3 per game. He has 1.4 points and 2.6 shots per game over his last five. Per game, Kaprizov is producing more, and both stars are trending up from their ten-game marks.

The Numbers: Lightning Odds and Wild Odds

The moneyline is a bet on who wins, overtime included. Minus means favorite: Lightning -130 at South Point means risking $100 to profit $76.92. The spread, called the puck line in hockey, is a different bet that wins or loses on the margin. Lightning -1.5 at +190 (South Point) needs a win by 2 or more.

Every one of those is the best price we found, which is why shopping books matters. Take out the vig (the house cut) and the market makes Tampa Bay about 55.8% to win and Minnesota 44.2%. The public split shows 51% of moneyline tickets on the Wild with 80% of the money. On Novig's exchange, 88% of moneyline money traded is on the Wild.

Where the Value Is

Break-even is how often a bet must win to stay even over time. Wild +133 needs 42.9%. The market's no-vig read has Minnesota at 44.2%. That is an average, not what you win on one ticket. The moneyline is where the number pays most.

Injuries

Minnesota lists four names. Defensemen Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon and goalie Filip Gustavsson are on Injured Reserve. Center Michael McCarron is Day-To-Day, which means his status is uncertain. Tampa Bay lists center Yanni Gourde on Injured Reserve.

The Pick

This is Desk analysis, not an official play. If your book shows a shorter price, the edge shrinks, so get the best number.

The Prediction

In Wild vs Lightning, we see a first-place home team the market has priced a little low. Our projection is Wild 4, Lightning 3. That adds up to seven goals, over the 6.5 total, but our play is the side, not the total. That is the read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.